China’s economic fate rests on its housing market
中国楼市是否值得担忧？
广州房产翻译公司：拉塞尔斯：中国楼市在某些方面确实引人发愁，比如高空置率和高房价。但若将这些指标放入更大的背景中，人们的忧虑将有所缓解。
China now commands the world’s attention, having transformed itself into an economic superpower that generates a startling one-third of global economic growth. In a growth-scarce world, the thought of losing even a smidgen of this is unsettling.
作为一个对全球经济增长贡献达到惊人三分之一的经济超级大国，中国的一举一动都牵动着全世界的注意力。在这个增长乏力的世界，只要想到失去来自中国的哪怕一点点动力都会令人不安。广州房产翻译公司。
For this reason, it is of crucial important to track the constellation of vulnerabilities and unknowns that orbit China. Among these, the country’s housing market is a subject of disproportionate importance. This is due to its centrality, its sheer heft, and also its seeming vulnerability.
因此，追踪围绕中国的种种脆弱性和未知因素至关重要。在这些因素中，楼市是一个格外重要的主题。这归因于楼市在中国经济中的中心地位和巨大影响，及其看上去的脆弱性。
Housing acts as something of an economic fulcrum that exerts an outsized influence over China’s banks, heavy industries, builders and households. We figure it is directly or indirectly responsible for a whopping 19 per cent of China’s economic output.
在中国，楼市发挥了类似经济支点的作用，对中国的银行、重工业、建筑商及家庭有着极大的影响。我们认为，楼市对中国经济产出的直接和间接贡献高达19%。
To put this importance into context, a simple stress test finds that a 10 per cent drop in housing activity and home prices could subtract as many as 5 percentage points from China’s GDP. This is essentially the difference between growth and decline for the entire country.
一项简单的压力测试发现，楼市活动与房价下降10%便会让中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增速下降多达5个百分点，这基本上是整个国家的经济是增长还是下滑的区别。楼市的重要性由此可见一斑。广州房产翻译公司。
So, having established its importance, is Chinese housing actually all that worrisome? Anecdotes and conjecture certainly tend toward the extreme negative end of the spectrum, with a focus on ghost cities, empty apartments and outrageous affordability.
那么，明确其重要性之后，中国的楼市真的有那么令人担忧吗？各种坊间传闻和猜测肯定倾向于极度消极的一面，只关注各地的“鬼城”、空置的公寓以及难以承受的房价。
But the reality is a bit more nuanced.
但现实更加微妙。
The main piece of bad news is that – by our estimate – 29 per cent of China’s urban dwellings are vacant (see chart). This is a very high fraction, well ahead of the US equivalent of just 13 per cent. It is a slight consolation that most of these have been sold (mainly to speculators), but the fact remains that they are empty. Were property investors to suddenly grow skittish, this could spell significant trouble.
主要的坏消息是，我们估计，中国29%的城市住宅处于空置状态（见图表）。这一比例非常高，远高于美国的仅13%。稍令人感到安慰的是，其中多数都已经售出（买家主要是投机者），但空置依然是事实。如果房产投资者突然受到惊吓，可能带来巨大的麻烦。广州房产翻译公司。
Bringing China’s housing vacancy rate into line with the U.S. over the span of a decade would require an immediate 40 per cent reduction in the pace of construction.
要使中国的住宅空置率在10年内降至美国的水平，需要将房屋建设的速度立降40%。
A further concern is that Chinese residential investment constitutes a larger share of GDP than any other major nation today, and is larger than even Japan and South Korea managed during their own building booms.
进一步的担忧是，中国的住宅投资占GDP的比重比现在的任何其他大国都高，甚至高于日本、韩国在建设热潮时期达到的比例。
However, this initial gloomy assessment does not provide a complete picture of China’s housing supply-demand dynamic.
然而，这种初步的悲观评估并不能为中国的住房供需动态提供一幅全貌。
From a flow perspective – setting aside those pesky vacancies for a moment – the country is actually underbuilding, if anything. Around 9m new homes per year are required to sate the appetite of urban population growth and to replace demolished properties. Meanwhile, China is currently building just under 7m new urban homes per year.
从流动角度看（暂不管那些让人烦恼的空置），中国的住房实际上是供小于求。中国每年需新建约900万套住房才能满足城市人口增长及拆迁安置的需要。但中国现在每年新建的城市住房还不到700万套。广州房产翻译公司。
From a short-term perspective, the China’s housing market supply chain – starting with land acquisitions and progressing through new construction and completed construction before alighting on home sales – reveals a generally tame picture. Most of these indicators are slowing slightly, and the bulk are in fact running marginally behind sustainable demand rather than ahead of it.
从短期来看，中国楼市的供应链——从买地、开工建设到完工后进行销售——处处都表现平平。大多数指标都在微微放缓，实际上它们大都略微落后、而不是领先于可持续的需求。
On the price side of the ledger, home prices are rising at a robust but not extreme – by Chinese standards – rate of 9 per cent a year, and on a slightly decelerating trajectory. Nothing signals wild excess here.
在价格方面，房价正以每年9%的强劲速度上涨（但按照中国的标准并不极端），而且涨速稍微呈现放缓趋势。这里不存在供给严重过剩的信号。
From a long-term perspective, China’s vacancy rate quandary enjoys a powerful offset. China’s cities have far fewer occupied homes (181m) than there are households (269m). This housing mismatch is largely a function of poverty. As the country grows wealthier, the incidence of multiple families per dwelling should abate. To reach the US level of urban dwellings per household over the next decade – while simultaneously normalizing the high vacancy rate – would necessitate an immediate 31 per cent increase in residential construction per year.
从长远角度来看，中国的空置率困境其实有很大的抵消因素。中国城市家庭有2.69亿户，而城市非空置住房为1.81亿套，前者远远大于后者。住房不匹配主要是贫困造成的。随着国家越来越富裕，一宅多户的情况将随之减少。要在未来十年达到美国城市居民户均住房保有量水平——同时使高空置率回归正常——每年住宅建设将需要立即提高31%。广州房产翻译公司。
To be clear, we stop short of predicting a coming housing boom in China. That seems a bit bold given the vagaries involved. But the point is that Chinese housing activity may not be quite as overcooked as it first looks.
显然，我们不再预测中国楼市即将火爆。由于所涉因素变幻莫测，这样预测似乎有些大胆。但要特别指出的一点是，中国的楼市活动也许并不像乍一看那么平淡。
Affordability tends to be the other source of hand-wringing on Chinese housing. Undeniably, the home price-to-income ratio of China’s largest cities is extreme and household leverage has now risen past U.S. levels. There is a real risk in both of these things. However, the intensity of concern diminishes somewhat when smaller cities and affordable housing projects are factored into the mix.
房价负担能力往往成为中国楼市让人苦恼的另一根源。不可否认，中国大城市的房价收入比呈极端态势，居民杠杆已超过美国水平。这两个因素里都蕴藏着实际危险。不过，如果将中小城市和经济适用房考虑在内，值得担忧的程度将有所下降。
Similarly, Chinese households are better poised than most to sustain high home prices given their close to 40 per cent savings rate and the rapid clip at which their incomes rise over time.
同样，考虑到中国居民近40%的储蓄率，及其收入的持续快速增长，他们比多数国家的人更能承受高房价。广州房产翻译公司。
Furthermore, there is more than one way to measure affordability. Providing a rather different perspective, the average Chinese household allocates a smaller share of their spending to dwelling costs than does the average American household. And the fraction of spending has been declining in recent years, rather than rising. Our own rough-hewn affordability estimate based on imputed mortgage payments has also been improving in recent years.
此外，衡量负担能力的方式不仅限一种。从另一个截然不同的角度来看，中国家庭花在住宅成本上的支出占其总支出的平均比例要小于美国家庭平均水平。而且这一比例近年来不但没有上升，反而在持续下降。我们根据估算按揭供款而粗略估计的负担能力近年来也在不断提高。
In a simpler world, Chinese housing would warrant a clear “thumbs up” or “thumbs down.” Alas, we live in a complicated world. Certain aspects of Chinese housing are quite worrying – its high vacancy rate and some affordability metrics. But other findings help to put these into context, and partially allay our concern. In the end, the Middle Kingdom’s housing market still warrants a place in our pantheon of risks, but in a location of slightly diminished prominence relative to our prior assumptions and arguably the view of the broader financial market.
在一个更简单的世界里，中国楼市“好”与“不好”都会分明立见。可惜，我们生活在一个复杂的世界。中国楼市的某些方面确实相当引人担忧，比如它的高空置率和部分负担能力指标。但其他研究结果有助于将这些指标放入大背景中，一部分程度上缓解我们的担忧。归根结底，中国楼市在我们的风险神殿里肯定仍占有一席之地，但相对于我们之前的假设、以及可能整体金融市场的观点，其位置稍有下降。
Eric Lascelles is chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management.
埃里克•拉塞尔斯(Eric Lascelles)是加拿大皇家银行环球资产管理(RBC Global Asset Management)首席经济学家
