Markets outlook: the big issues facing investors in 2017
2017年投资者需关注的重大问题
广州投资翻译公司：几乎没人预料到2016年会以全球股市牛市收尾。那么，新的一年又有哪些投资者必须关注的重大问题呢？
Welcome to a new year and the pressing market issues facing investors as they look to put money to work and navigate 2017.
欢迎来到新的一年，随之而来的还有投资者要面临的紧迫市场问题，他们希望平稳度过2017年，并让自己的资金赚钱。广州投资翻译公司。
Geopolitical surprises upended expectations last year and few predicted that 2016 would end with a global bull market in equities, while bond yields remain relatively low. Will strategists be any better at forecasting this time around? Here are the big questions that will preoccupy investors as the first trading days of the year unfold.
地缘政治上的频频意外颠覆了去年的种种预期，几乎没人预料到2016年会以全球股市牛市收尾，而债券收益率仍相对较低。此时此刻，策略师会变得更擅长预测吗？在2017年头几个交易日开启之际，下面是投资者将集中思考的几大问题。
Are markets at risk of a Trump disappointment trade?
“特朗普交易”是否会让市场失望？
Investors have taken a leap of faith that the combination of fiscal stimulus and less onerous regulations for many businesses under president-elect Donald Trump will ignite the US economy and call time on the era of lacklustre growth and slumbering bond yields. In turn, the long-mooted great rotation has begun, with money leaving bonds and flowing into equities.
投资者已在突然之间相信了，美国当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)主政下财政刺激和减少束缚许多企业的繁重法规的组合政策，将提振美国经济，结束增长乏力和债券收益率低下的时代。酝酿已久的资金从债市流入股市的“大挪移”也已经开始。
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 of small capitalisation stocks have all hit highs since November 8.
自11月8日以来，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)、道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)、纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)以及小盘股指数罗素2000指数(Russell 2000)，都创下了高点。广州投资翻译公司。
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, meanwhile, has jumped from a low of 1.32 per cent in July to 2.5 per cent, as bond investors contemplate faster economic growth and higher rates ahead.
与此同时，由于债券投资者预期未来经济增长加速、利率升高，10年期美国国债收益率已经从7月份1.32%的低点升至2.5%。
Yet is it too much, too soon, especially for a stock market many had judged to be expensive? A stronger dollar also looms over multinational US companies, offsetting cuts in taxes and regulation.
然而，对于一个曾被很多人判定估值过高的股市来说，这是否太过而且为时过早呢？另外，美元走强也威胁着美国跨国公司，它抵消了减税和监管放松的好处。
“Wall Street tends to get ahead of itself at times, and this appears to be one of those,” says Jenny Jones, head of US small and mid-cap equities at Schroders. “We do believe [Trump] will achieve many of his goals, but they seem to be close to fully priced now and they could take nine-18 months to accomplish. That leaves a lot of room for disappointment.”
“华尔街往往喜欢不时地超前，这次似乎也不例外，”施罗德(Schroders)美国中小盘股票主管珍妮•琼斯(Jenny Jones)说，“我们相信（特朗普）将实现自己的许多目标，但它们可能需要9至18个月才能实现，现在却似乎接近于完全反映到了股价上。投资者很可能会失望。”
How will Europe and the UK handle Brexit?
欧洲和英国如何处理退欧？
It may be only the eighth most traded currency pair, but euro-sterling price action offers a gauge for political risk as well as strong trading opportunities in 2017.
欧元/英镑或许只是世界交易量排名第8的货币对，但其价格动向为政治风险及2017年的热门交易机会提供了标尺。
Talk of “hard Brexit” in which the UK forgoes single-market access to have full control over its borders has resulted in investors marking down the value of UK assets — selling the pound — and has cast doubt over London’s position as one of the world’s biggest financial centres.
关于英国为了完全控制本国边境而放弃单一市场准入的“硬退欧”的讨论，已经导致投资者减记英国资产价值——抛售英镑——而伦敦作为全球最大金融中心之一的地位也受到质疑。广州投资翻译公司。
Weakness in the euro against the pound on the back of Brexit developments would suggest a reduction in investors’ Brexit risk premium. Steven Saywell at BNP Paribas believes euro-sterling will fall. “Sterling is at an extreme pricing, it is vulnerable to positive surprises and a weakening in hard Brexit,” he says.
在英国退欧逐步推进的背景下，欧元对英镑走软意味着，投资者的英国退欧风险溢价将减少。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的斯蒂文•塞维尔(Steven Saywell)认为，欧元兑英镑汇率将下跌。“英镑处于一个极端的价位，容易受到意外利好的影响，也易受到硬退欧的削弱，”他说。
An outlandish prediction from Saxo Bank even has the euro falling to 73p on the basis that the EU will be forced by migration pressures in Europe to cede ground to the UK.
盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)甚至预测欧元兑英镑汇率跌至1欧元兑73便士，理由是，欧洲的移民压力将迫使欧盟对英国作出让步。
There is also the matter of what Brexit means for the future of the euro with France, Holland, Italy and Germany holding elections in 2017. If anti-euro movements gain the upper hand elsewhere, even Germany may reassess saving it, say Deutsche Bank group’s chief economist David Folkerts-Landau and chief German economist Stefan Schneider. “The pros of a single currency probably outweigh the cons for Germany — not least because its own currency would massively appreciate.”
鉴于法国、荷兰、意大利和德国将在2017年举行选举，英国退欧对欧元的未来意味着什么也是个问题。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)集团首席经济学家戴维•福尔克茨-兰多(David Folkerts-Landau)和首席德国经济学家斯特凡•施奈德(Stefan Schneider)表示，如果反欧元运动在别的地方占得上风，甚至德国可能都要重新评估是否拯救欧元。“单一货币对德国而言可能利大于弊——尤其是如果德国使用自己的货币，它会大幅升值。”
Will the oil market balance?
石油市场能实现供需平衡吗？
Oil supply from the world’s biggest producers will be in focus from the first trading day of January as market participants assess the extent to which countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia reduce production following a global deal to cut supplies for the first time since the global financial crisis.
从1月的第一个交易日起，世界最大几个产油国的石油供应就将成为焦点，市场各参与方将评估沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯等国减产的程度。此前，这些产油国自全球金融危机以来首次达成了一项削减石油供应的全球协议。
There will also be keen interest in the return of US shale oil and the sustainability of supply recoveries by Libya and Nigeria, conflict-ridden nations that were left out of the output cut agreement.
市场还将关注美国页岩油的复苏以及利比亚、尼日利亚石油供应恢复的可持续性。这两个饱受战乱的国家被排除在全球减产协议之外。广州投资翻译公司。
The outcome of these unknowns will determine when oil supply and demand come into balance in 2017 and whether prices will remain above $50 a barrel. “Until we start to get answers, the debates will continue,” says Michael Wittner at Société Générale. “Until then, we believe that markets will enter a ‘wait and see’ mode; crude prices are likely to start trading within a relatively wide range”.
这些未知事件的结果将决定2017年的石油供需何时实现平衡，油价是否将维持在每桶50美元以上。“在我们开始得到答案之前，争论将一直持续，”法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的迈克尔•威特纳(Michael Wittner)说，“我们认为，在那之前，市场将进入‘观望’模式；原油价格很可能开始在一个相对广的区间内波动。”
If Opec members and co-operating countries such as Russia succeed, they could finally draw down tanks brimming with excess crude — helping to end the commodity supply glut. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a basket of 22 futures contracts, rose nearly 12 per cent in 2016, its first annual rise since 2010. Alongside oil, industrial metals such as zinc and copper have also been climbing on hopes that stronger global growth will underpin demand.
如果欧佩克(Opec)成员国及俄罗斯等合作国取得成功，他们最终可能降低过剩原油储量——帮助终结石油供过于求的局面。2016年，包含22种期货合约的彭博大宗商品指数(Bloomberg Commodity Index)上涨了近12%，这是自2010年以来首次出现较上年上涨。与石油一道，锌、铜等工业金属的价格也在上涨，因为市场预期更强劲的全球增长将支撑对这些金属的需求。
Are global banks investable once more?
全球银行是否值得再次投资？
Banking equity indices in Japan, Europe and the US posted double-digit gains in the second half of 2016, marking a change of fortunes from earlier in the year when the sector was beset by worries about profitability erosion amid low and negative interest rates, strict regulation and fines for bad behaviour.
日本、欧洲和美国的银行股指数在2016年下半年录得两位数增长，标志着该行业的命运与2016年早些时候相比已发生了改变。2016年早些时候，面对低利率、负利率、严格的监管以及不良行为招致的罚款，银行业受困于利润率下降引发的担忧。
According to investors, one of the most important causes for optimism is the prospect of higher interest rates on stronger economic growth as policy gears switch from monetary to fiscal measures in the coming year. Rising long-term bond yields help banks by boosting their net interest margin — the difference between the rates on their borrowing and lending. “We remain broadly bullish on banks as a sector,” says Mark Dowding, partner at BlueBay Asset Management.
投资者方面，其乐观的最重要原因之一，就是在接下来的这一年，随着政策努力从货币政策转向财政措施，经济增长将加强，利率呈现上升前景。长期债券收益率上升有助于银行提高其净利差，即存贷款的利差。BlueBay Asset Management合伙人马克•道丁(Mark Dowding)表示：“我们仍然普遍看好银行业。” 广州投资翻译公司。
But the rebound will face a stern test, particularly in Europe where the health of the sector is in question. European banks are on course to be worth 0.68 times analyst estimates for the book value of their assets at the end of 2016. For all the share price movement, the valuation is less generous than it was a year ago.
但其反弹面临着严峻考验，尤其是在银行业健康存在问题的欧洲。按照分析师对欧洲银行资产账面价值的估计，欧洲银行2016年底的市净率跌至0.68倍。虽然股价出现了种种波动，但这一估值逊于一年前。
Are financial conditions going to be tighter?
金融环境会进一步收紧吗？
The last time there was a substantial and rapid rise in US government bond yields was more than two decades ago — in 1994. At the time, much of the financial world failed to anticipate the speed and pace of rate increases announced by the Federal Reserve — which led the yield on 10-year Treasuries to jump 2 percentage points in the space of five months.
美国政府债券收益率上一次大幅度迅速上升是在二十多年前——1994年。当时大量金融界人士没有预料到美联储(Fed)宣布加息的速度和步伐，当时的加息导致10年期国债收益率在5个月内上涨了2个百分点。
Complacency this time around may be of a different kind. Investors appear to see a pro-growth Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen and expect three more rate raises in 2017.
金融界这次的自满可能有所不同。投资者似乎看到了一个在珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的带领下支持增长的美联储，并预期2017年将有三次加息。
Philippe Ithurbide, global head of research for Amundi Asset Management, says: “It is difficult to understand the message: how to have at the same time stronger growth, a weaker dollar and a more restrictive monetary policy?”
东方汇理资产管理公司(Amundi Asset Managemen)的全球研究主管菲利普•伊蒂尔比德(Philippe Ithurbide)表示：“很难去理解如下信息：如何同时实现增长加速、美元走弱和更严格的货币政策？” 广州投资翻译公司。
Real economic growth in the US is running at about 2 per cent, as is the rate of inflation, while the unemployment rate is low, figures that would have normally suggested a much higher level for interest rates. Should the Fed move too fast the repercussions could be severe. Six of the 12 tightening cycles since 1945 have resulted in a US recession within two years.
美国的实际经济增长率与通货膨胀率一样，都在2%左右，失业率较低，这些数字通常意味着一个更高的利率水平。如果美联储行动太快，影响可能会很严重。自1945年以来的12个紧缩周期中，有6个导致美国经济在两年内出现衰退。
Has the EM tantrum got further to run?
新兴市场还会进一步动荡吗？
Donald Trump’s election win intensified a rout in developing economy assets that spurred net redemptions from emerging market equity and bond funds at a pace not seen since the US bond taper tantrum of 2013.
唐纳德•特朗普当选美国总统加剧了发展中经济体资产下跌趋势，从而刺激新兴市场股票和债券基金以2013年美国债券“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)以来所未见的速度净赎回。
The Mexican peso and Turkish lira plumbed record lows, as the post-election “Trump trade” spurred a stronger dollar and higher bond yields.
墨西哥比索和土耳其里拉暴跌至创纪录低点，因为美国大选后的“特朗普交易”刺激美元走强和债券收益率上涨。
Only Russia appeared to escape the trend, thanks in part to discernible warmth between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
只有俄罗斯似乎避免了这种趋势，这在一定程度上得益于唐纳德•特朗普与弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)显而易见的友好关系。
With capital flowing out of China in spite of efforts to stem it, and markets expecting further US rate rises in 2017, the largest investors in emerging markets are focusing on differentiation and “managing risk”.
随着中国资本外流（尽管它努力抑制外流），以及市场预计美国将在2017年进一步加息，新兴市场的最大投资者正专注于差异化战略和“管理风险”。
“Questions remain with respect to how a Trump administration will deal with issues of trade and protectionism and whether campaign promises in relation to tariffs and trade deals materialise into something significant,” says Pierre-Yves Bareau, head of emerging market debt at JPMorgan Asset Management.
摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新兴市场债券主管皮埃尔-伊夫•巴罗(Pierre-Yves Bareau)表示：“问题依然在于特朗普政府如何应对贸易和保护主义，以及特朗普在竞选时就关税和贸易协定做出的承诺是否会兑现成为具有影响的东西。” 广州投资翻译公司。
Will there be more public market listings?
将会有更多新股上市吗？
The recent dearth of listings made last year the slowest for US IPOs since 2003 — but there are hopes of a rebound.
最近新股上市数量很少，这让去年成为自2003年以来美国IPO数量最少的一年，但仍有复苏的希望。
“There will be a significant pick-up [in listings] in 2017, and this will probably become most evident in the second quarter,” predicts JD Moriarty, head of Americas equity capital markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的美国股权资本市场主管JD•莫里亚蒂(JD Moriarty)预测道：“2017年（新股上市）数量将会大幅增长，可能在二季度最为明显。”
Bankers say the post-election equity rally and positive performance of 2016 deals bode well for a pick-up in activity next year. In contrast to 2015 deals, which ended that year down 6.5 per cent, 2016 listings are up on average by about 20 per cent, according to Dealogic.
银行家们表示，美国大选后的股市上涨和2016年新股的不俗表现预示着2017年IPO活动加速。Dealogic的数据显示，与2015年新股下跌6.5%相反，2016年新股平均上涨约20%。
There is also hope for a revival of tech initial public offerings. The hottest tech companies have avoided public markets in recent years, instead raising billions of dollars at attractive values privately.
科技企业上市也有望出现复苏。最热门的科技公司最近几年没有上市，私下却以吸引人的估值融得数十亿美元。
Snap, the messaging app, is preparing for what is expected to be one of the largest tech listings in years as early as March. It is hoping for a valuation of $20bn to $25bn. If successful it could lure other tech “unicorns” — private tech companies that have achieved valuations of $1bn or more — to test the public markets.
即时通讯应用公司Snap正在为最早今年3月上市做准备，有望成为最近几年规模最大的科技企业IPO之一。Snap的估值预计在200亿美元至250亿美元之间。如果成功上市，就可能吸引其他科技“独角兽企业”（估值10亿美元以上的私人科技企业）试水公共市场。
Reporting by Elaine Moore, Dan McCrum, Roger Blitz, Nicole Bullock and Anjli Raval
伊莱恩•摩尔(Elaine Moore)、丹•麦克拉姆(Dan McCrum)、罗格•布里茨(Roger Blitz)、尼科尔•布洛克(Nicole Bullock)和安吉利•拉瓦尔(Anjli Raval)报道
