China’s brutally pragmatic response to a shifting world order
陆克文：中国将务实回应世界新秩序
广州翻译公司：中国的政策分析人士正忙于梳理中美关系的未来。无论何种思想派别最终成为主导，中国对特朗普的回应都将极为务实。
China prefers to deal with the devil it knows. Beijing was fully prepared to deal with a President Hillary Clinton but, like the rest of us, the country’s foreign policy establishment is in the dark about what follows the election of Donald Trump. This creates genuine uncertainty in Beijing.
中国宁愿与自己熟悉的魔鬼打交道。北京本已充分准备好与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)总统过招，但和我们其他人一样，中国的外交政策机构对于唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选后会发生什么也是一无所知。这给北京方面造成真正的不确定性。广州翻译公司。
Chinese policy analysts are now working overtime to map out the future of Sino-American relations. Broadly, there are three overlapping schools of thought. China’s response to Mr Trump will be shaped by whichever prevails. Either way, it will be brutally pragmatic and not remotely ideological.
此刻，中国的政策分析人士正加班加点梳理中美关系的未来。概括地讲，中国目前存在三种互有重叠思想派别。占上风的一派将决定中国对特朗普的反应。无论哪种情况，中国的回应都将是极为务实的，不会考虑任何意识形态因素。
The first of these schools might simply be called the “instability” school. China has a deeply conservative approach to international policy. It does not like unpredictability. With Mr Trump, it has ended up with strategic unpredictability at scale.
第一派或许可以简单地称为“不稳定”派。中国对待国际政策相当保守。它不喜欢不可预知性，而特朗普上台在战略上给中国带来极大的不可预知性。
A second school is decidedly optimistic, for several reasons. Its adherents see the “chaos” of the US election as proof for its domestic population of the unworkability of western liberal democracy. They also see Mr Trump as a transactional politician, unburdened by the orthodoxies of the US foreign policy, intelligence and human rights establishments. In their view, therefore, he is a leader with whom they have greater potential to cut a deal, either on national security or economic policy.
第二派是绝对的乐观派，原因有几个。其拥护者将美国大选的“混乱”视为证据，可以向中国国内民众证明西式自由民主行不通。他们还认为特朗普是一名交易型的政治人士，不受美国在外交政策、情报、人权方面体制内正统观念的羁绊。因此，在他们看来，身为美国领导人的特朗普更有可能与中国达成某种协议——要么在国家安全方面，要么在经济政策上。广州翻译公司。
Furthermore, with the Trans-Pacific Partnership — which excluded China — now dead, Beijing will have greater influence on what replaces it.
此外，随着将中国排除在外的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)行将就木，北京将在替代它的贸易协定上发挥更大的影响力。
Mr Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric has the potential to undermine US strategic interests in Indonesia and Malaysia, where China has already made significant progress in extending its south-east Asian influence. In the wider region, the optimists see the ambiguity of Mr Trump’s pre-election language on America’s South Korean and Japanese alliances increasing the probability that China’s neighbours will begin to accommodate Beijing’s interests.
特朗普的反穆斯林言论有可能损害美国在印度尼西亚和马来西亚的战略利益，而中国正在扩大其在东南亚的影响力，并已在这方面取得显著进展。从整个亚太地区看，乐观者认为，特朗普大选前对美韩和美日同盟关系模棱两可的表态，增加了中国的邻国开始迎合北京利益的可能性。
The optimists also see a foreign policy opportunity for China to become a leader, not just a follower, on trade liberalisation and climate change — potentially a boon for Chinese soft power.
乐观者还看到了中国在贸易自由化和气候变化方面从一个跟随者变为全球领导者的外交政策机会，这对提升中国的软实力是潜在利好。广州翻译公司。
The third school is the pessimist school. Mr Trump, in this view, has identified China, not Russia, as the only credible threat to US power. They see the president-elect’s plan for expanding the US military, particularly the navy, as an act directed against China.
第三派是悲观派。在这一派看来，特朗普已将中国，而非俄罗斯，视为唯一真正能够威胁美国实力的国家。他们认为特朗普扩充美国军事力量——尤其是海军——的计划是直接针对中国的。
The pessimists see a “normalisation” of US-Russia relations — for example, deals on Syria and Ukraine, including the possible lifting of sanctions — as potentially affecting the tone, content and scope of Beijing’s newfound strategic condominium with Moscow. This, they conclude, would boost President Vladimir Putin’s freedom for manoeuvre in dealings with China. This occurs in the context of a complex, often adversarial relationship between Moscow and Beijing going back to tsarist times; and, more recently, strategic competition for influence in central Asia.
这些悲观主义者认为美俄关系“正常化”——例如在叙利亚、乌克兰问题上达成协议，包括可能解除对俄罗斯的制裁——可能影响北京与莫斯科新建立的战略协调的基调、内容和范围。他们的结论是，这将增加俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)与中国打交道时的回旋余地。出现这一局面的历史大背景是，俄中之间存在复杂且经常对立的关系，这可以追溯到沙皇时代，而近年两国又在中亚争夺战略影响力。
The pessimists also note that China’s economic “threat” was central to Mr Trump’s campaign message on why America’s middle class is going backwards and why its industries have closed and moved overseas. They correctly identify that Mr Trump is by instinct a protectionist; when he talks about a general tariff of 45 per cent on Chinese goods, and about his determination to declare China a “currency manipulator”, he might not be joking — however disastrous this may be for the US, China and the world economy in any ensuing trade and currency war.
悲观主义者还指出，中国的经济“威胁”是特朗普竞选时解释为何美国中产阶级生活水平倒退、为何美国产业关停并迁往海外的核心观点。他们正确地指出特朗普是一名本能的保护主义者；当他表示要对中国商品征收45%的关税并决心将中国列为“汇率操纵国”时，他可能并非戏言——无论这样做可能对美国、中国乃至世界经济在随后的贸易和货币战中造成多大灾难。广州翻译公司。
In the pessimists’ view, this would go to the heart of Chinese national priorities today: namely the future performance of their economy.
在悲观主义者看来，这将关系到中国当前政策重点的核心，即中国经济未来的表现。
Furthermore, China’s pessimists point to Mr Trump’s lack of interest in human rights, democracy and American moral exceptionalism as offering the US a chance to repair strategic relationships with traditional allies such as the Philippines and Thailand.
此外，中国的悲观主义者指出，特朗普对人权、民主和美国道德例外论缺乏兴趣，这可能为美国提供一个契机，能够修复与菲律宾、泰国等传统盟友的战略关系。
Which of these analyses will prevail in Beijing? The truth is that the ball is in Mr Trump’s court. America has now become the “strategic variable” in the future of US-China relations.
上述分析哪些会在北京占据上风？真相是，球在特朗普一边。如今，美国已成为未来美中关系的“战略变量”。
The earlier the president-elect meets President Xi Jinping at a working-level summit, the better. Both leaders are likely to play hardball. But this might just generate enough mutual respect to make the relationship work.
当选总统特朗普越早在工作级别首脑峰会上会晤习近平主席越好。两位领导人很可能都采取强硬态度。但这或许反而会产生足够的相互尊重，使双边关系保持运转。广州翻译公司。
One area where the two leaders could make progress is North Korea, where the nuclear clock is ticking fast. An agreement on this one might just be able to radically redefine the future of China -US relations early in Mr Trump’s term.
两国领导人或许可以在紧迫的朝鲜核问题上取得进展；朝鲜核武技术的进展已经使这个问题刻不容缓。这方面若能达成协议，可能在特朗普任期之初从根本上重新定义中美关系的未来。
And that would be the ultimate “art of the deal”.
那将成为终极的“交易的艺术”。
The writer is a former prime minister of Australia and now president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York
本文作者是澳大利亚前总理，现为纽约亚洲协会政策研究院(Asia Society Policy Institute)院长
