Was China wishing for a Trump victory?
特朗普胜选是否对中国有利？
广州翻译公司：黃育川：虽然特朗普当选意味着中国可能获得地缘政治突破口，提升在亚洲的地位，但这也有不利于中国的一面。
For many Chinese, the US elections were being depicted as a test of the virtues of the American model of democracy. The process became an easy target for Beijing’s propagandists to illustrate what they see as a flawed political system, with its internal divisions and a costly, time-consuming election that yielded two candidates both judged untrustworthy by the majority of American voters.
对于许多中国人，美国大选被描绘成一场对美式民主优越性的考验。美国的选举过程成了中国宣传者的一个轻而易举的靶子，可以暴露他们所称的一种有缺陷的政治制度，不但内部分裂，还搞出昂贵耗时的选举程序，结果却产生被大多数美国选民评判为都不可信任的两名候选人。广州翻译公司。
But as unexpected as the outcome was for the Chinese, there is an old saying: Be careful what you wish for. Donald Trump’s victory may have pleased those Hillary Clinton regrettably referred to during the campaign as the “basket of deplorables” but what Beijing really wanted was more nuanced.
但是，无论选举结果多么出乎中国人意料，正如老话说，小心你想要什么。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的胜利可能取悦那些被希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在竞选期间遗憾地称为“一群可怜虫”的人，但北京方面真正想要的是更为微妙的东西。
The Chinese public was evenly split between Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump in pre-election surveys but their counterparts in other east Asian countries overwhelmingly favoured Mrs Clinton. For China, Mrs Clinton was a known product but seen as personally antagonistic towards the country; Mr Trump was an unknown product but as a businessman was judged, rightly or wrongly, less likely to get involved in China’s internal or external affairs.
在选前调查中，中国公众对希拉里和特朗普的态度是对半分的，而他们的东亚邻居们大多支持希拉里。对中国而言，希拉里是个已知产物，但认为她对中国持敌对态度；特朗普是个未知产物，但作为一个商人，他被评判为（无论对错）不太可能插手中国的内部或外部事务。广州翻译公司。
For officials dealing with the US, the choice depended on whether one viewed the relationship through an economic or a geostrategic prism. For three decades, Beijing’s primary concern was sustaining rapid and stable economic growth and the avoidance of external conflict. This was facilitated by America’s open trade and investment policies and the comfort blanket given by a military presence that moderated tensions and deterred regional conflicts. This clearly benefited China.
对于要与美国打交道的官员，选择取决于此人是通过经济视角，还是地缘政治视角来看待中美关系。30年来，中国政府的首要关切是保持快速、稳定的经济增长，避免外部冲突。为此创造条件的是美国的开放贸易和投资政策，以及美国军事存在所提供的安全感——美国的军事存在缓和了紧张局势，阻止了地区冲突。中国显然受益匪浅。
The factors that shaped this environment, however, have changed over the past decade. China’s rise as an economic power has led to more assertive policies to establish what Beijing calls a “new kind of great power relations” that has altered its geostrategic objectives. For the leadership, the choices are now more complex.
然而塑造这一环境的因素在过去10年发生了变化。中国崛起为经济强国，随之带来更为强硬的政策，希望建立北京方面所称的“新型大国关系”，这意味着中国改变了其地缘战略目标。对于中国领导人，现在的选择更为复杂。
Despite the characteristically ambiguous official statements, those at the helm of the party-state had strong views about both candidates. Mrs Clinton’s perceived predictability and pragmatism were viewed in the context of her seemingly aggressive views on “ideological” issues such as democracy and human rights as well as her support for a strong US role in providing the security architecture underpinning the “pivot” back to Asia. This assertiveness, coupled with her record of criticising China as first lady, senator and then secretary of state, led Beijing to view a Clinton presidency as a credible threat to Chinese interests.
尽管其官方声明一如既往地模棱两可，但这个党国的掌权者对两位总统候选人都有强烈观点。在中方眼里，看待希拉里的可预见性和务实，要放在这样一个背景下，即她对民主和人权等“意识形态”问题抱有貌似咄咄逼人的观点，以及她支持美国在提供支撑重返亚洲战略的安全架构方面扮演强大角色。希拉里的这种强硬态度，加上她作为第一夫人、参议员和国务卿时批评中国的记录，让北京方面认为希拉里若当选，将对中国的利益构成可信威胁。广州翻译公司。
Mr Trump’s candidacy was more complicated. His public statements on trade and investment relations with Beijing were even harsher than Mrs Clinton’s and featured more centrally in his election platform. He had consistently placed much of the blame for America’s economic malaise squarely on China’s shoulders. And his threat to impose a 45 per cent tariff on imported Chinese goods inspired China’s finance minister publicly to call Mr Trump an “irrational type”.
特朗普这个候选人则更加复杂。他对于美中贸易和投资关系的公开言论比希拉里更加刺耳，而且这些问题在他的竞选平台上占据更为中心的位置。他一再将美国的经济不景气大半归咎于中国。他威胁要对中国输美商品征收45%的关税，令中国财政部长公开称特朗普属于“不理性的那类人”。
Thus, many of Beijing’s economic authorities were in favour of Mrs Clinton rather than the Republican to continue the dialogue with the Obama administration on trade and investment issues. However, Beijing is used to the ritual of US presidential candidates competing to show who can be “tougher” on China, yet after the elections taking a more conciliatory approach — so who won would probably not matter.
因此，中国政府经济部门的许多人支持希拉里而不是特朗普，以继续中国与奥巴马政府关于贸易和投资问题的对话。不过，北京已习惯了美国总统候选人的套路：在竞选期间争着表现谁能对中国更“强硬”，但在当选后会采取比较和缓的姿态，因此谁赢了很可能并不重要。广州翻译公司。
What will happen with the US — China dialogue on trade and foreign investment issues is uncertain. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was being sold tactically by the Obama administration as a means to stop China from setting the trade agenda, would ironically seem less likely to be ratified now given Mr Trump’s views on trade. He may find the Bilateral Investment Treaty under negotiation a more attractive vehicle to engage Beijing given his claims that China’s investment regime has not been fair to American companies. The reality is that liberalisation would be in the interests of both sides.
美中关于贸易和外国投资问题的对话将如何发展是个未知数。奥巴马政府曾战术性地兜售《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)，作为阻止中国制定贸易议程的一种手段；具有讽刺意味的是，鉴于特朗普对贸易的观点，TPP似乎不太可能获得批准。考虑到他声称中国的投资制度对美国企业不公平，他可能会觉得正在谈判的“双边投资条约”(Bilateral Investment Treaty)是接触北京的更有吸引力的工具。现实是自由化将符合双方利益。
For China’s top leadership, however, what matters more are the geostrategic implications. Some see a Trump victory as a chance to realign the regional balance of power in favour of China. The latter’s perceived aggressiveness in East Asia has elevated the potential for maritime conflicts stemming from the island disputes; a US president-elect who reportedly considers most of his country’s allies as “free riders” who do nothing to contribute to US national security may mean an America less inclined to intervene in regional affairs. If so, key players such as Japan and South Korea may decide to go their own way in developing a nuclear capability. And the Asean nations might seek to accommodate China’s regional interests even more than the recent visits to Beijing of the heads of state of the Philippines and Malaysia have signalled.
然而，对于中国的最高领导层，更重要的是地缘战略影响。有些人认为特朗普的胜利是一个机会，可以让区域力量均衡朝着有利于中国的方向调整。后者在世人眼中在东亚的挑衅行为，已经提高了因岛屿争端引发海上冲突的可能性；而据报道认为绝大多数盟国都在“搭便车”、对美国国家安全毫无贡献的特朗普入主白宫，可能意味着美国不那么倾向于干预地区事务。如果是这样，日本和韩国等关键大国可能会决定自行发展核武能力。东盟国家可能寻求迁就中国的地区利益，其身段之柔软，甚至会超过近期菲律宾和马来西亚国家元首访问北京所传递的信号。广州翻译公司。
While all this could mean a geopolitical opening for China to increase its presence in the region, it could also lead to a downward spiral of protectionist economic policies and a rearming of protagonists in which there are no winners. Only history will reveal whether Beijing got what it wished for.
虽然这一切可能意味着中国获得一个地缘政治突破口，能够加大自己在地区的存在，但这也可能带来保护主义经济政策的螺旋式下降，以及一场没有赢家的区域军备竞赛。只有历史才能展示北京方面是否如愿以偿。
The author is a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment and former World Bank Director for China
黃育川是卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment)高级研究员、世界银行(World Bank)前中国业务局局长
