Opec says oil set to peak in 15 years under climate deal
欧佩克：石油需求15年内见顶
广州石油翻译公司：这是石油输出国组织首次正式承认石油需求可能很快见顶，尽管有预测称，20年后全球汽车总量可能增加近一倍。
Opec has joined a chorus of energy industry voices saying oil demand might peak within 15 years, as quicker adoption of alternative fuel cars and more aggressive climate targets look set to bring more than a century of rising consumption to a halt.
石油输出国组织（Opec，简称欧佩克）附和了能源行业很多人的预言，称石油需求可能在15年内达到顶峰。替代燃料汽车的加速普及以及更激进的气候目标，看来将终结持续了一个多世纪的石油消费增长。广州石油翻译公司。
The forecast is the first official recognition from the producers’ cartel that oil demand — the source of the majority of its 14-members’ revenues — may soon top out, despite predictions the global vehicle fleet could almost double in 20 years as emerging economies develop.
该预测是这个产油国卡特尔首次正式承认石油需求——其14个成员国大部分财政收入来源——可能很快见顶，尽管有预测称，随着新兴经济体的发展，20年后全球汽车总量可能增加近一倍。
Opec is not the first to argue oil demand might soon peak, but the forecast carries weight coming from a group that collectively pumps more than a third of world oil supplies.
欧佩克并不是首个认为石油需求可能很快见顶的组织，但作为一个占世界石油供应三分之一以上的集团，其预测是有分量的。广州石油翻译公司。
Royal Dutch Shell said last week that oil consumption might stop growing within five to 15 years, highlighting the threat to an industry that has enjoyed almost uninterrupted demand growth since the first commercial well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859.
荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)上周表示，石油消费量可能在5至15年内停止增长，突显了该行业面临的威胁；自1859年第一口商业油井在宾夕法尼亚州开钻以来，该行业一直获益于几乎从不间断的需求增长。
Predictions of a peak are predicated on the Paris climate agreement’s targets being fully implemented as well as faster adoption of alternative fuel cars.
预测石油需求见顶的假设是，巴黎气候协议目标全面实施以及替代燃料汽车加快普及。
Opec’s prediction is only one of a range of scenarios published in its annual long-term outlook, which forecasts how the market might look over the next 25 years. Its core scenario sees oil demand continuing to expand to 2040 and beyond if countries are less aggressive in trying to curb emissions.
欧佩克的预测只是其年度长期展望中设想的一系列情形之一，该展望预测了未来25年市场可能呈现的格局。其核心情形是，如果各国不那么积极地尝试遏止排放，石油需求将持续扩张至2040年乃至更遥远的未来。
“The uncertainties associated with energy and environmental policies at both national and international levels cloud the outlook for energy demand and supply, especially in the long term,” Opec said.
“国家和国际层面能源和环境政策的不确定性，使能源需求和供应的前景（特别是长期前景）被蒙上阴云，”欧佩克表示。广州石油翻译公司。
Opec’s prediction on peak demand also sounds a warning to its members who have already been grappling with a prolonged price downturn. Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest producer, has been racing to reduce its reliance on oil revenues, launching an ambitious plan to overhaul its economy including listing part of state oil giant Saudi Aramco.
欧佩克有关需求见顶的预测，听起来也像是对其已经在应对油价持续低迷的成员国发出警告。欧佩克最大的成员国沙特阿拉伯正忙于降低其对石油收入的依赖，推出一个雄心勃勃的计划来推动经济转型，包括将国有的沙特阿美石油公司(Saudi Aramco)的一部分上市。
Opec’s scenario that envisages countries hitting their Paris targets includes poorer nations whose pledges are conditional on financial support. Under that outlook, the cartel said demand peaks in 2029 at 100.9m barrels a day and then declines to 98.3m by 2040. Opec sees oil demand this year at around 94.4m b/d.
欧佩克假设各国达到巴黎减排目标的情形包括较贫穷国家，它们的承诺以财政支持为条件。在这一前景下，欧佩克称1.009亿桶/日的需求顶峰将在2029年到来，随后在2040年降至9830万桶/日。欧佩克认为今年的石油需求在9440万桶/日左右。
Additional reporting by Pilita Clark
皮利塔•克拉克补充报道
