Artificial intelligence is too important to leave unmanaged
人工智能不会引发“生活大爆炸”
广州科技翻译公司：桑希尔：人工智能不太可能带来任何惊雷般的产品，也不会立即对人类造成威胁，它带来的变革将是渐进性的。
Artificial intelligence is having a breakout moment (again).
人工智能(AI)正面临一个突破性的时刻（再一次）。广州科技翻译公司。
Scarcely a day passes without some startling news emerging about the latest advances in smart machines, whether it is digital assistants, robot surgeons, or self-driving cars. Venture capital money is seemingly pouring into any start-up that can sprinkle the magic acronym AI over its pitch deck.
如今，几乎每天都会有一些关于智能机器最新进展的惊人消息，不管是数字助理、机器人外科医生还是自动驾驶汽车。风投资金似乎正大量涌入所有那些在融资宣讲书(pitch deck)上带有AI这个具有魔力的字眼的初创企业。
Some of the younger researchers in the field are even convinced that we will achieve what is known as artificial general intelligence (AGI) in their lifetimes, at which point computers will outsmart humans and start inventing ever smarter machines.
人工智能领域一些较年轻的研究人员甚至认为，在他们的有生之年，我们有望实现“人工通用智能”(AGI)，到那时，电脑将比人类聪明，并开始发明更智能的机器。广州科技翻译公司。
According to some AI experts, this could lead to an “intelligence explosion”, ranking as the biggest event in human history. In effect, it would amount to the creation of a new life form, a second race.
据一些人工智能专家称，这可能导致“智能爆炸”，堪称人类历史上最重大的事件。实际上，这将产生一种新的生命形式，即第二人种。
However exhilarating (or unnerving) the future, the present-day limitations of AI appear all too evident. The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence recently found that even the most inventive AI systems still flunk an eighth-grade science test. The 16m Roomba vacuum cleaners that autonomously clean our living rooms still have a hard time identifying dog poop.
不管未来多么令人兴奋（或不安），目前人工智能的局限性似乎显而易见。艾伦人工智能研究所(Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence)最近发现，即便最具创新性的人工智能系统在8年级科学测验中也不及格。能够自动清扫客厅的1600万台Roomba扫地机器人仍很难辨识狗粪。广州科技翻译公司。
Concerns about what some AI experts call “artificial stupidity” seem strangely familiar to a certain generation of Doctor Who fans, who obsessed about how robotic Daleks could ever conquer the universe when they could not even climb the stairs.
围绕一些人工智能专家所称的“人工痴能”(artificial stupidity)的担忧会让科幻电视剧《神秘博士》(Doctor Who)的某一代粉丝们感到出奇熟悉，他们纠结于机器人戴立克(Dalek)如何能够征服宇宙，它们甚至无法迈上楼梯。
In the 60-year history of AI, the technology has experienced periodic “winters” when heightened expectations of rapid progress were dashed and research funding was cut. “It’s not impossible that we’re setting ourselves up for another AI winter,” says the co-founder of one San Francisco AI-enabled start-up. “There is a lot of over-promising and a real risk of under-delivering.”
在人工智能60年发展历史中，这项技术经历过间歇性的“冬天”，那种时候人工智能技术迅速发展的过高期望被粉碎，研究资金被削减。“我们再进入一个人工智能冬天不是不可能的，”旧金山一家人工智能初创企业的联合创始人表示，“有很多言过其实的地方，因此也有很大的风险达不到预期。” 广州科技翻译公司。
One of the more balanced assessments of the state of AI has come from Stanford University as part of a 100-year study of the technology. The report, which brought together many of AI’s leading researchers, attempted to forecast the technology’s impact on a typical US city by 2030.
对人工智能现状的较全面评估之一来自斯坦福大学(Stanford University)，是该校有关人工智能研究百年计划的一部分。这项报告把人工智能领域很多主要研究人员汇聚在一起，试图预测到2030年人工智能对一个典型美国城市的影响。
One of its main conclusions was that AI was unlikely to deliver any life-changing product like some “bolt from the blue” — and certainly did not represent any imminent threat to humanity. Rather, AI would lead to significant, but incremental changes across most areas of our lives. The “odd paradox” of the technology was that when it was absorbed into everyday use it “disappeared” and stopped being regarded as AI, the authors noted.
报告的主要结论之一是人工智能不太可能带来任何惊雷般的、改变生活的产品，而且肯定不会立即对人类造成威胁。人工智能将给我们生活中的多数领域带来重大但渐近性的变革。报告作者们指出，人工智能技术的“奇怪悖论”是当相关技术进入日常使用时，它就“消失了”，不再被视为人工智能。广州科技翻译公司。
Even so, AI could transform most sectors, such as education, healthcare, transport, energy, entertainment and security, according to the report. AI systems are already helping oncologists identify cancerous tumours. Educational robots will teach coding to our children. Predictive policing could lead to safer streets and transform airport security. Dynamic pricing and traffic management systems could massively ease congestion.
报告称，即便如此，人工智能可能会给多数领域带来变化，例如教育、医疗、交通、能源、娱乐和安全。人工智能系统已在帮助肿瘤科医生识别癌变肿瘤。教育类机器人将教孩子们编程。预测性执法可能会让我们的街道更安全并让机场安保改观。动态定价和交通管理系统可能会大大缓解拥堵。
Apart from the social impact, investors are scrambling to understand how such applications of AI will enable wealth to be created — and destroyed.
除了社会影响，投资者正急于了解人工智能的这些应用将如何创造和毁灭财富。广州科技翻译公司。
Suranga Chandratillake, a partner at Balderton Capital, a London-based venture capital firm, says “AI is the big question of the now” for many investors. The clue, he suggests, is to identify those companies capable of amassing vast pools of domain specific data to run through their AI systems that can disrupt traditional business models.
总部位于伦敦的风投公司Balderton Capital的合伙人素兰加•钱德拉蒂雷克(Suranga Chandratillake)表示，对于很多投资者而言，“人工智能是时下的热点问题”。他认为，投资者要发现的是那些能够收集大量的领域特定数据、用他们能够颠覆传统商业模式的人工智能系统处理这些数据的公司。
“We are at a big data tipping point more than an AI tipping point,” he says. “The challenge is to apply these techniques in a space that is commercially interesting and where there is access to big data sets.”
“与其说我们处于一个人工智能的转折点，不如说我们处于一个大数据的转折点，”他表示，“我们面临的挑战在于把这些技术应用于一个在商业上有趣而且能够获取大数据的空间。” 广州科技翻译公司。
The Stanford report also highlights the darker side of AI if left unmanaged: the impact on jobs, inequality, ethics, privacy and democratic expression. “We are now at a crucial juncture in determining how to deploy AI-based technologies that promote, not hinder, democratic values such as freedom, equality and transparency.”
斯坦福大学的报告还强调了在放任不管的情况下人工智能的阴影面：对就业、不平等、道德、隐私和民主表达的影响。“我们正处于一个重要关口，要确定如何使用基于人工智能的技术，使之促进、而非阻碍自由、平等和透明等民主价值观。”
The report’s authors urged the US government to accrue more expertise among the 16 agencies that touch on AI. They also called for more public and private funding of research to assess AI’s societal impacts.
报告的作者们呼吁美国政府让16个涉及人工智能的机构积累更多专业知识。他们还呼吁公共部门和私营部门投入更多研究经费以评估人工智能的社会影响。
Whenever researchers plead for more money to be spent on research they risk being accused of special pleading. But given the potentially transformative nature of AI they have more than a point.
一旦研究人员申请更多研究经费，他们就有可能被批评请求特殊对待。但鉴于人工智能潜在地具有变革性质，他们是很有道理的。
