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广州能源翻译公司:焦煤价格飙升背后的中国因素

作者: 来源: 日期:2016/9/30 9:01:09

Surging price of coking coal reflects China’s muscle

焦煤价格飙升背后的中国因素

 

广州能源翻译公司:近期焦煤价格大幅飙升的背后主因是中国的限产政策,突显出北京政策制定者搅动全球大宗商品市场的能力。

 

The ability of policymakers in Beijing to roil global commodity markets has been underlined by a breathtaking rally in a key steelmaking ingredient that has caught consumers cold, but promises a profit windfall for the struggling mining industry.

一种关键炼钢材料的大涨价突显出北京政策制定者搅动全球大宗商品市场的能力——这种上涨让消费者感到不适,但有望给陷入困境的采矿业带来意外利润。广州能源翻译公司。

 

The price of premium hard coking coal has more than doubled in the past six weeks to more than $200 a tonne as supplies have dwindled and buyers have scrambled to find cargoes in the spot market.

随着供应缩减以及买家竞相寻找现货市场货源,优质硬焦煤的价格在6周期间(截至上周)上涨了两倍多,至每吨逾200美元。

 

Behind the surge — or “met coal mania” as it has been dubbed by one bank — are production curbs in China where the government is restricting the number of working days at domestic coal mines to 276 a year, down from 330.

价格飙升(或者被一家银行称作的“焦煤热”)的背后是中国的限产政策——中国政府将国内煤矿每年的工作日天数从330天降至276天。

 

This policy is mainly aimed at improving the profitability of its bloated and heavily indebted coal industry so it can repay loans to domestic banks. But it has also reduced output and tightened the global coking coal market. Its impact has been magnified by a string of disruptions in Australia, a leading supplier to the seaborne or export market.

该政策主要目的是提高臃肿而负债累累的煤炭行业的盈利能力,从而让它们能够偿还国内银行的贷款。但它也降低了产量,减少了全球焦煤市场的供应。澳大利亚一系列的生产中断放大了该政策的影响——澳大利亚是焦煤海运或出口市场的主要供应国。广州能源翻译公司。

 

If the price rise is sustained it could add billions of dollars to the bottom lines of the industry’s biggest producers, which include Anglo American, BHP Billiton, South 32 and Canada’s Teck. Coking coal is an important raw material used in blast furnace steel production.

如果价格持续上涨,就可能让该行业最大的生产商增加数十亿美元的利润。它们包括英美资源集团(Anglo American)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)South 32和加拿大的泰克(Teck)。焦煤是高炉钢生产中使用的重要原材料。

 

It’s been a perfect storm on the supply side,” said Christopher LaFemina, analyst at Jefferies.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)的分析师克里斯托弗•拉菲米纳(Christopher LaFemina)表示:“这是供应方面的完美风暴。”

 

Caught between an oversupplied Chinese market and faltering demand for steel, 2016 was supposed to bring more pain for the coking coal industry. But things have not worked out that way.

受中国市场供应过剩以及钢铁需求低迷的困扰,焦煤行业在2016年本应更加艰难。但情况并非如此。广州能源翻译公司。

 

Instead of adding to last year’s 30 per cent drop, coking coal has staged a dramatic recovery, rising 164 per cent which has made it the best performing commodity of 2016.

焦煤价格没有继续去年下跌30%的势头,而是步入明显回升阶段,上涨了164%,这让它成为2016年表现最佳的大宗商品。

 

In bulk and base commodities if you get Chinese policy right you are a long way towards getting the market right,” said Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at Macquarie.

麦格理(Macquarie)大宗商品研究主管科林•汉密尔顿(Colin Hamilton)表示:“在大宗商品领域,如果你光是弄明白中国政策,你离弄明白市场还远着呢。”

 

China sprang its first surprise this year when policymakers, alarmed by slowing economic growth and capital flight, injected a huge amount of cash into the banking system. This boosted construction activity and demand for steelmaking materials such as iron ore and coking coal.

中国政策制定者对经济增长放缓和资本外流感到不安,向银行业体系注入了大量资金,这是中国今年首次的意外之举。它拉动了建筑活动,推高了铁矿石和焦煤等炼钢原材料的需求。广州能源翻译公司。

 

The credit surge was followed by the 276-day policy, which first lifted the price of thermal coal, used to generate electricity in power stations.

信贷飙升之后是276个生产日政策,这首先提高了用于电厂发电的热能煤的价格。

 

Coking coal did not start its vertiginous ascent until July when heavy rain and flooding reduced supply from Shanxi province. This forced Chinese buyers into the seaborne market, which was then hit by a number of unexpected outages at mines in Australia that further crimped supplies.

焦煤价格直到7月暴雨和洪水导致山西省供应下降后才开始了令人目眩的上涨。这迫使中国买家进入海运市场,当时澳大利亚煤矿发生了一系列意外生产中断事故,进一步减少了供应。

 

While about 300m tonnes of seaborne coking coal is produced each year most of it is traded on a contractual basis and priced off the spot market or monthly or quarterly averages. The amount of material readily available to buy — even when the market is not grappling with supply side issues, is very small — fewer than 10m tonnes according to Mr Hamilton.

尽管每年的海运焦煤产量大约有3亿吨,但这些焦煤大多按合同价交易,价格低于现货市场或者月度和季度平均价格。汉密尔顿表示,即便市场没有供应问题的困扰,现成可买的焦煤数量也非常少,不足1000万吨。广州能源翻译公司。

 

We have basically gone from $100 to $200 a tonne on the back of a few deals,” he said of the recent rally.

他在谈到最近的上涨时说:“在一些协议的支持下,我们基本上从每吨100美元涨到了每吨200美元。”

 

According to Ernie Thrasher, chief executive of US coking coal producer Xcoal, most of the recent buying in the spot market has come from steel mills in Europe and India. “They realised they needed coal but the market had started to run away from them,” he said. “Buyers tend to be much more reactive when the price goes against them.”

美国焦煤生产商Xcoal首席执行官厄尼•思拉舍(Ernie Thrasher)表示,最近现货市场上的买盘大多来自欧洲和印度的钢厂。他说:“他们意识到他们需要煤炭,但市场开始远离他们。当价格对他们不利的时候,买家往往积极得多。”

 

Industry watchers do not think the price surge can continue for much longer. Knowing that contract prices will rise in the fourth quarter — possibly to $170 a tonne — steel mills will have been buying as much as they can under existing arrangements. Many of these contracts have options to buy an extra 10 per cent of agreed volumes, say traders.

行业观察家们认为这种价格飙升不会持续太长时间。钢厂知道,合同价将在第四季度上升(可能到每吨170美元),因此将在现有协议下尽可能地购买焦煤。交易员们表示,许多合同带有可额外购买约定总量的10%的选项。广州能源翻译公司。

 

Tom Price, analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that road conditions in Shanxi had started to improve while China’s National Development and Reform Commission has requested a short-term lift in coal supply primarily to cap thermal coal prices.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师汤姆•普莱斯(Tom Price)表示,山西路况开始改善,同时中国发改委(NDRC)要求短期增加煤炭供应,这主要是为了限制热能煤价格。

 

Prices above $200 a tonne will also trigger a supply response, particularly from producers in North America.

每吨200美元以上的价格将引起供应方面的回应,尤其是北美供应商的回应。

 

Mr Thrasher said Xcoal would increase its exports and expected others to follow although they might take a bit longer — between three and six months.This is because many US mines were mothballed in 2015 while others were placed under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

思拉舍表示,Xcoal将会增加出口,并预计其他生产商将会效仿,尽管它们花的时间可能更长些,估计在36个月之间。这是因为许多美国矿场在2015年停产,同时其他矿场处于第11章破产保护的状态。广州能源翻译公司。

 

What you will see at this price level is that anyone who can produce will produce,” he said.

他说:“你在这个价格水平上将会看到的是,所有能生产的都将生产。”

 

However, few people expect prices to fall sharply unless Beijing performs a policy U-turn, something that seems unlikely in the near term.

然而,没多少人预计价格将会大幅下降,除非北京方面的政策发生一百八十度大转弯,这在近期似乎不太可能。

 

We expect supply increases to put some downward pressure on the coking coal prices in the very near future,” said Mr LaFemina. “But we do not expect a collapse to the levels of earlier this year as the government clearly wants to avoid financial stress in the domestic coal industry.”

拉菲米纳表示:“我们预计供应增加将会在近期内对焦煤价格产生一些下行压力。但我们预计不会下跌至今年早些时候的水平,因为中国政府显然希望避免本国煤炭行业出现财务紧张局面。”

 

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