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作者: 来源: 日期:2016/9/22 8:52:25

广州俄语翻译公司:How Putin is messing with American heads





There is no textbook on what to do. The US has a history of meddling in other countries’ politics during the cold war — and since. But Russia’s thinly-disguised intrusions into the 2016 election is the first time the US has clearly been the object of such attention. Moreover, the Russian bear is pushing at an open door. All Vladimir Putin needs to do to cause trouble is to sow doubt about the integrity of the US electoral process. Large numbers of Americans already suspect the November result will be rigged. So does Donald Trump, who is the first US presidential nominee to invite a foreign power to leak material that would damage his opponent. If ever US democracy was vulnerable to skulduggery that time would be now.

没有教科书教该怎么做。美国在冷战期间以及之后都干预过其他国家的政治。但如今俄罗斯对2016年美国大选几乎毫不掩饰地加以干预,这还是美国首次明显成为此类“关照”的对象。而且,俄罗斯熊正在推的是一扇敞开的大门。要制造麻烦,弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)只需让人们对美国大选的公正性产生怀疑就可以了。许多美国人已经怀疑11月的大选结果将会受到操纵。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)也只需要这么做,他是首位邀请外国势力泄露会打击对手的资料的美国总统候选人。如果说美国民主什么时候容易受到蒙骗,那就是现在。广州俄语翻译公司。


What chance does it have of succeeding? To some extent it already has. In a Bloomberg interview last week, Mr Putin offered a blatant non-denial denial that Russia carried out the recent hacking episodes. “To do that you need to have a finger on the pulse and understand the specifics of domestic political life in the US,” he said with a knowing smile. “I’m not sure that even our foreign ministry experts are sensitive enough.” The Russian president might as well have winked at the camera. Nobody, from the cyber security firms looking into the hacking of US political outfits, to the FBI, which is investigating them, doubts Russian intelligence agencies were behind the breaches.



Nor is there much question about motive. The email trove hacked from the Democratic headquarters showing insider bias for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders, was leaked on the eve of Mrs Clinton’s convention in July. It inflamed Mr Sanders’ supporters, many of whom already thought Mrs Clinton had rigged the primaries. Last week Julian Assange, the holed up founder of WikiLeaks, which released that first batch of emails, promised there would be more to come before November. “It is not a question of whether Russia leaks more data but when,” says Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of CrowdStrike, one of the largest US cyber security companies. Mr Assange, who is Russia’s preferred data dump, promises “teasers” in the next few days.

动机方面也没有多大问题。在今年7月希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)获得民主党总统候选人提名的大会前夕,窃自民主党总部的电子邮件遭到泄露,这些邮件表明民主党内部偏向希拉里,而不是伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)。这让桑德斯的支持者怒火冲天,许多人已经认为希拉里操纵了初选。上周,躲藏起来的维基解密(WikiLeaks)创始人朱利安•阿桑奇(Julian Assange)承诺,将会在今年11月前披露更多的邮件。之前是维基解密公布了第一批邮件。美国最大的网络安全公司之一CrowdStrike的联合创始人德米特里•阿尔佩罗维奇(Dmitri Alperovitch)表示:“这不是俄罗斯是否会泄露更多数据的问题,而是何时泄露的问题。”受俄罗斯青睐的数据发布人阿桑奇承诺,将于今后几天公布一些“先导”邮件。广州俄语翻译公司。


It would be easy — but probably wrong — to assume Mr Trump is working directly with Mr Putin to build mistrust in the November outcome. The prima facie case looks strong. In his July acceptance speech, Mr Trump said: “Big business, elite media and major donors are lining up behind the campaign of my opponent because they know she will keep our rigged system in place.” That same week Trump officials purged language from the Republican platform which had urged support for the Ukrainian government against Russia. It came four years after Mitt Romney, the then Republican nominee, had described Russia as America’s “number one geopolitical foe”.

很容易假定特朗普在和普京直接联手让人们怀疑11月的选举结果,但这样假定很可能是错误的。乍看上去这种假定很有道理。今年7月,特朗普在接受共和党总统候选人提名时表示:“大企业、精英媒体和主要捐赠者正排队支持希拉里的竞选,因为他们知道,她将会保持我们受到操纵的体系。”就在同一周,特朗普方面的官员们抹除了共和党纲领中敦促支持乌克兰政府、反对俄罗斯的语句。4年前,当时的共和党总统候选人米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)将俄罗斯称为美国的“头号地缘政治对手”。


Nothing better captures Mr Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican party than its 180-degree turn on Russia. Every hacking — most recently last week’s “exfiltration” of electoral rolls in Arizona and Illinois — appears to benefit Mr Trump. Anything that could implant doubt about Mrs Clinton’s likely victory in November is grist to his mill. Only he seems to question Russia’s role in the leaks. “I think it’s probably unlikely. Maybe the Democrats are putting that out,” Mr Trump last week told Russian television (yes, you read that correctly). He also told the state-owned broadcaster that Mr Putin was far more of a leader than President Barack Obama. As I say, the surface evidence for Trump-Putin connivance looks plain.

没有什么事情比共和党在俄罗斯问题上180度大转弯更能反映出特朗普对共和党的敌意接管了。每一次黑客攻击——最近的一次是上周亚利桑那州和伊利诺伊州选民名册“外泄”——似乎都有利于特朗普。一切让人们对希拉里11月可能的获胜产生怀疑的事情,都为特朗普利用。似乎只有他在质疑俄罗斯在这些泄露事件中的角色。特朗普上周向俄罗斯电视台表示,“我认为这似乎不太可能,或许这是民主党人搞出来的”(是的,你没有看错)。他还向这家国有电视台表示,普京比巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统更像一个领导人。如我所说,特朗普和普京联手的表面证据看上去很明显。广州俄语翻译公司。


Yet Mr Putin is a far wilier operator than Mr Trump. In his early career he trained in the “active measures” wing of the KGB, which specialised in political warfare. Its goal was to generate disinformation that would disrupt other countries’ politics. Mr Trump has given the Russian leader a golden chance to tarnish the US democratic model with the far more sophisticated tools now available. Mr Trump’s victory would not necessarily be in Mr Putin’s interests. Damaging the world’s faith in the US system is. Mr Putin is also a savvier tactician than Mrs Clinton. When Mr Obama came to power in 2009, he and Mrs Clinton tried to create a split between Mr Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s then president. It failed. In 2011 Mrs Clinton backed Moscow demonstrators against Mr Putin’s allegedly rigged presidential election. This also backfired. Washington gave critical help to those supporting the 2014 overthrow of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine. Mr Putin responded by annexing Crimea. What sweeter revenge than to meddle in a US election?

然而,普京比特朗普更为老谋深算。普京政治生涯早期曾在克格勃(KGB)的“积极策略”部门接受过培训。克格勃专攻政治斗争,其目标是制造谣言破坏其他国家的政治。特朗普为普京提供了大好机会,让他可以利用如今先进得多的工具抹黑美国的民主模式。特朗普获胜不一定符合普京的利益,但破坏世界对美国制度的信心符合他的利益。普京在战术方面也比希拉里精明。当2009年奥巴马上台的时候,他和希拉里试图离间普京和俄罗斯时任总统德米特里•梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)之间的关系,但没有取得成功。2011年,希拉里支持莫斯科游行者抗议普京涉嫌操纵总统选举,结果也适得其反。华盛顿为那些在2014年支持推翻乌克兰亲俄罗斯政府的人士提供了关键的帮助。普京的回应是吞并了克里米亚。还有比干预美国大选更快乐的复仇吗?


The bar is not that high. No vote rigging need occur — assuming it was even possible. All Mr Putin needs to do is contaminate the results in people’s minds. Mr Trump and his media backers would do the rest. Sound improbable? It should not. Mr Putin is a past master at setting cats among democratic pigeons. He knows well that propaganda works best when there is a receptive audience. Forget America’s global reputation. Look at how it sees itself. With some justification, many Americans believe their political system has been captured by the rich and powerful. It explains why so many are taking a desperate gamble on Mr Trump. Their horse will probably be beaten. Mr Putin, on the other hand, is enjoying a lucrative day at the races.