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广州金融翻译公司:“直觉”有助人类交易员战胜算法

作者: 来源: 日期:2016/9/20 9:10:13

广州金融翻译公司:Human traders can beat algorithms by relying on gut feeling, study shows

研究:“直觉”有助人类交易员战胜算法

 

广州金融翻译公司:剑桥大学主导的最新研究显示:来自身体的信号,即金融业人士所称的直觉,有助于造就优秀的市场操盘手。

 

Sensitivity to “gut feelings” is a strong predictor of success in financial trading, according to research led by Cambridge university.

根据剑桥大学(Cambridge university)牵头开展的研究,对“直觉”的灵敏度是金融交易成功的一个强大预测指标。广州金融翻译公司。

 

The study of 18 hedge fund traders found those with greater “interoception” — the ability to sense the state of their body — made more money and survived for longer in hectic financial markets. Results are published in the journal Scientific Reports.

18名对冲基金交易员的研究发现,具有较大“内感”(interoception)——感知自己的身体状态的能力——的人赚到更多钱,在纷乱的金融市场生存也更久。研究结果发表在《科学报告》(Scientific Reports)刊物上。

 

Our results suggest that signals from the body, the gut feelings of financial lore, contribute to success in the markets,” the authors concluded. By combining body and brain, the best human traders can outperform computer algorithms, they said.

“我们的研究结果似乎表明,来自身体的信号,即金融业人士所称的直觉,有助于在市场上操盘成功,”研究报告的作者们总结称。他们表示,通过结合身体和大脑,最优秀的人类交易员可以胜过计算机算法。

 

To assess interoception, the researchers measured the subjects’ ability to count their own heartbeats without touching their pulse or any other part of their body. The 18 male volunteers were high-frequency traders, buying and selling futures contracts at an unnamed London fund at the end of the eurozone crisis. They held their trading positions for short periods, requiring split-second decision-making based on the assimilation of large amounts of information and rapid recognition of price patterns.

为了评估内感,研究人员测量了受试者在不把脉、也不接触身体任何部位的前提下察觉自己心率的能力。这18名男性志愿者都是高频交易员,在欧元区危机尾声阶段在一家名称不详的伦敦基金买卖期货合约。他们只在短时间内持有自己的交易头寸,这种操作需要他们在吸收大量信息和快速识别价格模式的基础上作出瞬间决策。广州金融翻译公司。

 

This niche of the financial markets is particularly unforgiving and selection acts quickly,” said John Coates, senior author, who used to run a Wall Street trading desk. “Unprofitable [traders] do not survive for long.”

“金融市场的这个角落尤为无情,淘汰很快,”资深作者、曾在华尔街当过交易主管的约翰•科茨(John Coates)表示。“赚不到钱的交易员撑不了多久。”

 

Within the study group, interoceptive ability predicted profits generated and years of experience as a financial trader. “Our findings suggest they manage to read real and valuable physiological trading signals, even if they are unaware they are doing so,” Mr Coates said.

在研究对象组中,根据各人的内感能力,可以预测出其产生的利润和作为一名金融交易员的“工龄”。“我们的研究结果似乎表明,他们成功地读取了真正的、宝贵的生理交易信号,即使他们不知道自己在这么做,”科茨说。广州金融翻译公司。

 

The researchers say the findings undermine the “efficient markets” theory that human participants cannot outperform the market consistently. “A large part of a trader’s success and survival seems to be linked to their physiology,” said Mark Gurnell of Cambridge, another member of the study team.

研究人员说,这些发现削弱了“有效市场”理论,后者认为人类参与者不可能持续跑赢大市。“一个交易员的生存和成功似乎在很大程度上与他们的生理存在关联,”研究团队的另一名成员、剑桥大学的马克•格内尔(Mark Gurnell)表示。

 

The work should also inform the debate over whether computer algorithms can outperform human traders, Mr Coates added. “If we recognise that body and brain act as a single functioning unit, that they form a parabolic reflector collecting signals inaccessible to the conscious mind, then we will also recognise how exquisitely we are constructed for rapid pattern recognition. Humans can indeed compete against the machines.”

科茨补充说,这项研究也给有关计算机算法是否能够胜过人类交易员的辩论带来启示。“如果我们认识到,身体和大脑作为一个单一的功能单位发挥作用,他们形成一个抛物面反射镜,收集无法被显意识分辨的信号,那么我们也将认识到,我们在快速模式识别方面是怎样的构造精美。人类确实可以抗衡机器。”

 

广州金融翻译公司

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