China infrastructure investment model under fire
研究：中国逾半基建项目导致重大浪费
广州经济翻译公司：牛津教授们的研究将助燃围绕中国增长模式的可行性的辩论，但其他经济学家认为基建项目仍是值得的。
More than half of Chinese infrastructure investments have “destroyed, not generated” economic value as the costs have been larger than the benefits, according to researchers at Oxford university, a finding that will fuel debate over the viability of China’s infrastructure-heavy growth model.
牛津大学(Oxford university)研究员得出结论，中国逾半基础设施投资项目“摧毁，而不是产生”经济价值，因为成本比效益更大，这一研究发现将助燃围绕中国侧重于基建的增长模式的可行性的辩论。广州经济翻译公司。
Infrastructure investment has been a major driver of Chinese economic growth over the past 35 years as hundreds of millions of workers migrated from rural to urban areas. China has stepped up infrastructure spending this year to buffer a slowdown in manufacturing investment.
过去35年里，基础设施投资是中国经济增长的一大推动力，数亿农村劳动者进城务工。今年以来中国加大了基建支出，以缓冲制造业投资放缓。
But such investment leads to significant waste while adding to China’s worrying debt load, says the paper by Oxford professors, led by Atif Ansar, a lecturer at Oxford’s Saïd Business School.
但是，以牛津大学赛德商学院(Saïd Business School)讲师阿提夫•安萨尔(Atif Ansar)为首的一组牛津教授撰写的一篇论文称，此类投资导致重大浪费，同时加重中国令人担忧的债务负担。广州经济翻译公司。
“Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return,” the paper found.
“典型的基建投资不光远远不是经济增长的引擎，而且不能提供经风险调整的正回报，”该论文发现。
“Poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis.”
“管理不善的基建投资是中国正在浮现的经济和金融问题的一个主要解释。我们预测，除非中国换档至较低水平、但更高质量的基础设施投资，否则中国将滑向一场基础设施引领的全国金融和经济危机。” 广州经济翻译公司。
The paper takes aim at what it calls the “prevalent view” among economists that high rates of infrastructure investment are crucial to growth for developing economies and that China offers a model for others emulate. On the contrary, Mr Ansar warns that countries such as Brazil, Nigeria and Pakistan should not follow China’s path. President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative, the New Silk Road, calls for the country to finance road, rail and port construction to connect China with central Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
这篇论文的矛头指向其所称的经济学家的“普遍观点”，即较高的基础设施投资率对于发展中经济体是至关重要的，而中国在这方面提供了一个值得他国借鉴的榜样。安萨尔警告，恰恰相反，巴西、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦等国不应该效仿中国的道路。中国国家主席习近平的标志性外交政策倡议“新丝绸之路”呼吁相关国家出资建设公路、铁路和港口，把中国同中亚、中东和欧洲连接起来。
“It is a myth that China grew thanks largely to heavy infrastructure investment. It grew due to bold economic liberalisation and institutional reforms, and this growth is now threatened by over-investment in low-grade infrastructure,” Mr Ansar said.
“所谓中国增长主要归功于大量基础设施投资是一个错误观念。中国的增长归功于大胆的经济自由化和制度改革，这种增长现在面临低水平基础设施投资过热的威胁，”安萨尔表示。广州经济翻译公司。
Three quarters of all projects suffered a cost overrun, which has exacerbated the debt problem, said the paper, which appears in the current issue of Oxford Review of Economic Policy. The authors estimate that a third of China’s $28.2tn debt load is attributable to such overruns. The study is based on a sample of 95 road and rail infrastructure projects in China between 1984 and 2008.
发表于最新一期《牛津经济政策评论》(Oxford Review of Economic Policy)的上述论文表示，中国有四分之三的项目遭遇超支，加剧了债务问题。作者们估计，中国28.2万亿美元债务负担有三分之一可归因于此类超支。这项研究依据的样本是中国在1984年至2008年之间开展的95个公路和铁路基建项目。
Other economists dissent from Mr Ansar’s criticism. Even if an infrastructure project does not directly generate enough cash flow to cover its financing costs, they argue, positive externalities can spur enough economic activity that makes the project worthwhile.
其他一些经济学家不同意安萨尔的批评。他们认为，即使基础设施项目不直接产生足够的现金流来覆盖其融资成本，积极的外部因素也可以刺激足够经济活动，使此类项目值得投资。广州经济翻译公司。
“For most of the past few decades, the bulk of Chinese infrastructure investment has served the overall economy reasonably well. If you compare China with most other developing countries, they would love to be in China’s shoes in terms of having all that infrastructure,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics and former senior China economist at the World Bank.
“在过去几十年的大部分时间里，中国大部分基建投资对整体经济起到了不错的作用。如果你对比中国和其它多数发展中国家，那些国家都巴不得置身于中国的处境，拥有所有那些基础设施，”牛津经济(Oxford Economics)亚洲经济部主任、曾担任世界银行(World Bank)高级中国经济学家的高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示。
But Mr Kuijs acknowledges that China now faces diminishing returns from additional infrastructure, as the most productive investments are already largely complete. Other analysts also see problems with excessive and wasteful infrastructure investment but doubt it will lead to crisis.
但高路易承认，中国现在面临额外基础设施的边际效益递减，因为最有成效的投资已基本到位。其他分析师也认为存在过多且浪费的基建投资问题，但怀疑这将导致危机。广州经济翻译公司。
“The authors’ data on individual infrastructure projects tell us that China is basically no worse and no better than the rest of the world in terms of managing infrastructure projects — just like everywhere else, they often run behind schedule and over budget,” said Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal-Dragonomics in Beijing.
“论文作者们在个别基础设施项目上的数据告诉我们，中国在管理基础设施项目方面不好也不坏，基本上和世界其他地方差不多——就像其他地方一样，他们往往落后于进度表，而预算超支，”北京龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)中国研究总监白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示。
