Hillary Clinton: The China hawk
希拉里对中国更强硬？
广州翻译公司：如果这位前国务卿当选下任美国总统，她将更强力推进她参与构建的“转向亚洲”战略，还是可能试着迁就北京？
Hillary Clinton watched as the tension in the Hanoi Convention Centre slowly mounted. First, the Vietnamese foreign minister rose to criticise China’s actions in the South China Sea. Then, one by one, other ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations raised similar concerns about Chinese bullying.
在河内会议中心，气氛慢慢地变得紧张起来，希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)静静地看着。越南外长首先站起来，批评中国在南中国海的行为。然后，其他东盟(ASEAN)国家的部长们也一个接一个地表达了对中国“胁迫行为”的担忧。广州翻译公司。
Sensing her moment, the US secretary of state asked to speak to the regional summit. For the first time, she announced that Washington had a “national interest” in freedom of navigation and international law in the South China Sea. The Chinese were irate. Yang Jiechi, the foreign minister, looked at Mrs Clinton and warned “outside powers” to stay out of the South China Sea disputes. Turning to the other countries, he fumed: “China is a big country. And you are all small countries. And that is a fact.”
感到自己的时机来了，身为美国国务卿的希拉里要求在这个地区论坛会议上发言。她首次宣布，在南中国海维护航行自由和国际法符合美国的“国家利益”。中方震怒，时任外长杨洁篪看着希拉里警告道，“域外大国”不要插足南海争端。他继而转向其他国家的部长们，恼火地说：“中国是大国，其他国家是小国，这是事实。”
Of the 956,733 miles Mrs Clinton travelled and the 112 countries visited as secretary of state, the 2010 Hanoi meeting was in many ways the defining moment of her tenure. And it provides a valuable glimpse of the worldview that the Democratic nominee would bring to the White House if she wins the November election.
在国务卿任上，希拉里完成了956733英里的旅程，访问了112个国家，但从很多方面来说，2010年河内会议都是其任期中的决定性时刻。它也提供了一个宝贵的机会，让我们可以一窥这位民主党总统候选人如果在今年11月大选中获胜，她将给白宫带来什么样的世界观。广州翻译公司。
For the Obama administration, the “pivot” to Asia is its signature foreign policy initiative. After 200 years of primarily looking east towards Europe, the US decided that its main priority is the Asia-Pacific.
“转向亚洲”(Pivot to Asia)是奥巴马政府的标志性外交政策举措。在200年来主要把目光投向东面的欧洲以后，美国作出了把外交政策的重心主要放在亚太地区的决断。
By inserting the US directly into the arguments over the South China Sea, Mrs Clinton’s Hanoi statement was, in effect, the launch of the pivot, the moment the US declared to the region — and to Beijing — that the US would not sit aside as China tried to establish itself as the regional leader.
希拉里的河内发言让美国直接介入到围绕南中国海的争论之中，这实际上就是“转向亚洲”的开始。在那一刻，美国向亚太地区、向北京方面宣告，在中国试图成为地区领袖之时，美国不会袖手旁观。广州翻译公司。
The phrase itself comes from an October 2011 article in Foreign Policy magazine by Mrs Clinton. In “America’s Pacific century”, she talked about the country being at a “pivot point”. While President Barack Obama will use an Asean summit in Laos starting today to cement the pivot as part of his own legacy, the reality is that it was very much a joint project between the president and the woman he hopes will succeed him.
“Pivot”这个词源自希拉里2011年10月发表在《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)杂志上的一篇文章——她在《美国的太平洋世纪》一文中说，美国正处于一个“转折点”(pivot point)。尽管美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)利用本月6日在老挝开幕的东盟峰会进一步巩固“转向亚洲”战略，将之作为他的政治遗产的一部分，但是说实话，该战略基本上是他和这位他希望能够接替他的总统之位的女性共同构建的。
For some US officials, including a few angling for senior positions in a future Clinton administration, the Hanoi meeting is evidence that she would be prepared to adopt a tougher approach to China. In Beijing, the meeting reinforced the impression that she was the principle China hawk within the Obama administration.
一些美国官员认为，河内会议提供了一个证据，表明希拉里将准备对中国采取更强硬的态度——抱着这种看法的，包括几名有意在未来的希拉里政府中谋求高级职位的官员。在北京，河内会议加深了这样一种印象：希拉里正是奥巴马政府中头号的对华鹰派人物。
“They have a good notion that the chances of Mrs Clinton winning the election are very high and so they will have to deal with her,” says Douglas Paal, an Asia expert who worked in the Reagan and George HW Bush administrations. “But every Chinese will say privately they really don’t like her.”
“他们清楚地认识到，希拉里赢得大选的几率非常高，因此他们将不得不与她打交道，”曾在里根(Reagan)和老布什(George HW Bush)政府中任职的亚洲事务专家包道格(Douglas Paal)说，“但每个中国人私下里都会说，他们真的不喜欢希拉里。”
These tensions set the stage for what will be one of the central challenges facing the next president. The new, more confrontational US approach, first signalled by Mrs Clinton in Hanoi, has not persuaded the Chinese to abandon its plans for the South China Sea. As a result, the new administration will face a choice between doubling down on the same strategy or trying to find some way to accommodate Chinese demands.
这些紧张关系将酿就下一任美国总统将会面临的主要挑战之一。美国方面由希拉里在河内首次挑明的更具对抗性的对华新策略，并未促使中国放弃其南海计划。结果是，新一届美国政府将面临一个选择：是对同一策略再押上多一倍的赌注，还是尝试寻找能够迁就中国要求的方法？广州翻译公司。
Offensive turn
转向强硬
From the outset of the first administration in January 2009, both Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton were in swift agreement that Asia would be a priority. Her first major speech in office was at the Asia Society in New York the following month, when she spoke of “America’s desire for more rigorous and persistent commitment” to the region.
2009年1月奥巴马第一个任期伊始，奥巴马和希拉里就迅速达成共识：要把亚洲列为优先事项。希拉里作为国务卿的首次重要演讲，是同年2月在纽约的亚洲协会(Asia Society)发表的，当时她说“美国希望（对亚洲地区）作出更严谨和持续的承诺”。
Yet there was also a desire within the administration not to start off on the wrong foot with China during the first year, as so many new presidents had done — especially given the crisis ripping across the global economy.
然而，在奥巴马政府内，也存在一种不希望在第一年就和中国交恶的想法（有许多新上任的总统都曾经做过这样的事情），尤其是考虑到当时席卷全球经济的危机。广州翻译公司。
It was with this in mind that Mrs Clinton said ahead of her visit to Beijing, also in February 2009, that she would not make a big deal about human rights because “we pretty much know what they are going to say” — a remark that won her fierce criticism at home for appearing to let Beijing dictate terms.
也是在2009年2月，正是出于这样的想法，希拉里在出访北京前表示不会就人权问题大做文章，因为“我们非常清楚他们会说什么”。这一言论让希拉里在国内遭到猛烈批评，批评者认为这意味着让北京说了算。
By early 2010, the administration started to become less wary of offending Beijing. Mr Obama met the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, and announced a package of arms sales to Taiwan, while China was also lobbied to back a UN resolution on Iran.
到2010年初，奥巴马政府开始不怕得罪北京了。奥巴马会见了流亡的西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama)，并宣布了向台湾出售武器的一揽子计划，同时中国也被游说支持联合国一项针对伊朗的决议。广州翻译公司。
It was the South China Sea issue, however, that led the administration into a much more direct confrontation with China that year. US officials were already worried about increased Chinese naval activity in the area and the absence of any diplomatic process to resolve the various territorial disputes. They began to suspect that China was stepping up plans to try to exert control over the South China Sea. In her memoir Hard Choices, Mrs Clinton says she started to become concerned about the South China Sea at the May 2010 Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing. The Chinese started to refer to the South China Sea as a “core interest” alongside Taiwan and Tibet — in other words, a subject on which there could be no flexibility.
不过，南中国海问题才是导致那一年奥巴马政府明显更直接地与中国对抗的导火索。美国官员原本就在担心两个事情，一个是中国海军在该海域活动增多，另一个是看不到任何外交进程来解决各种领土纠纷。他们开始怀疑，中国正在加紧推进意图控制南中国海的计划。
在自己的回忆录《艰难抉择》(Hard Choices)中，希拉里称，2010年5月“美中战略与经济对话”(Strategic and Economic Dialogue)在北京召开，她就是那时候开始关切起南中国海局势的。在对话中，中方代表将南中国海与台湾、西藏一道列为“核心利益”——换句话说，这是一个不容商榷的话题。广州翻译公司。
“They warned that China would not tolerate outside interference,” she wrote. “On the flight home from Beijing, I took stock with my team. I thought China had overplayed its hand.”
“他们警告称，中国不会容忍外来干涉，”她写道，“从北京飞回国途中，我与我的团队慎重地分析了形势。我认为中国高估了自己的实力。”
The administration decided to start calling out Beijing over its actions in the South China Sea. Jeff Bader, then Asia director at the National Security Council, and former assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell prepared the ground before the Hanoi meeting by briefing governments that harboured complaints about the Chinese. Over the past few years, the US has expanded security co-operation with Vietnam and the Philippines, both of which are involved in territorial disputes with China, and backed a court case brought by the Philippines. An international tribunal ruled in July that many of China’s claims in the South China Sea were unlawful.
美国政府决定开始挑战中国在南中国海的行为。时任国家安全委员会亚洲事务主管杰夫•贝德(Jeff Bader)与前助理国务卿库尔特•坎贝尔(Kurt Campbell)为河内会议召开做足准备，向对中方抱有不满的政府知会美方立场。过去几年中，美国扩大了与越南、菲律宾的安全合作（两国都与中国存在领土争端），并支持菲律宾针对中国提出的一起诉讼案。今年7月，一家国际仲裁庭裁定中国在南中国海的多项主张都为非法。广州翻译公司。
For all their occasional disagreements on the Middle East, Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton were much more aligned when it came to Asia. Indeed, the biggest competition within the administration was over who should take credit for the strategy — the White House or the state department — not over its ideas.
虽然在中东问题上偶有分歧，但涉及亚洲问题时，奥巴马和希拉里的看法要一致得多。实际上，政府内部争得最厉害的不是围绕这一战略的思想，而是谁是这一战略的功臣，白宫还是国务院？
“There were times when Tom Donilon [a former national security adviser] thought she was too tough on China, or Jeff Bader. But not Obama,” says one former senior official. “He never really had any romantic attachment to the idea that we need to always have smooth Sino-US relations.”
“有时，（前国家安全顾问）汤姆•多尼隆(Tom Donilon)认为她对中国太过强硬，杰夫•贝德也会这么想。但奥巴马不，”一位前美国高级官员表示，“他从来没有不切实际地抱着我们需要一直保持平稳的中美关系的想法。” 广州翻译公司。
The one exception was over the case of Chen Guangcheng, the blind activist who took refuge in the US embassy in Beijing in 2012 and who — after several days of negotiations while Mrs Clinton was in Beijing for a summit — eventually received asylum in the US. According to senior officials, Mr Obama was highly critical of the state department’s decision to let Mr Chen into the US embassy.
陈光诚事件是一个例外，这位盲人维权者2012年进入北京美国驻华大使馆寻求庇护——当时希拉里正在北京参加一个峰会——经过几天的谈判，陈光诚最终得以到美国避难。据美国高官称，奥巴马严厉批评了国务院让陈光诚进入美国大使馆的决定。
Along with the Hanoi meeting, the stand-off over Mr Chen was another piece of evidence for those in Beijing who believe Mrs Clinton to be a relatively hardline voice about China, both on security issues and human rights. Indeed, Chinese suspicions about Mrs Clinton date back to the 1995 World Conference on Women in Beijing, when she insisted that “women’s rights are human rights and human rights are women’s rights” — remarks that were not broadcast in China.
除了河内会议，中美在陈光诚事件上的僵持也使得北京一些人士更加相信希拉里在安全和人权问题上代表着对华相对强硬的声音。事实上，中国方面对希拉里的怀疑可以追溯至1995年在北京召开的世界妇女大会(World Conference on Women)，当时她坚称“妇女权利即人权，人权即妇女权利”——这些言论未能在中国播出。
As a result, many analysts in China would expect a prospective Clinton administration to be more willing to confront Beijing. “She has always been hard on China since her first visit in 1995,” says Chu Shulong, an international relations expert at Tsinghua University. “That’s her style.”
因此，中国许多分析人士预计，有望入主白宫的希拉里将更愿意与北京方面对抗。“自1995年首次访问中国以来，她一直对中国保持强硬态度，”清华大学(Tsinghua University)国际关系专家楚树龙说，“这是她的风格。” 广州翻译公司。
Shi Yinhong, another international relations expert at Renmin University, agrees: “Hillary will be tougher on China than Obama.”
来自人民大学的另外一位国际关系专家时殷弘同意这种观点，他说：“在对华态度上，希拉里将会比奥巴马更加强硬。”
From the start, the decision to push back against China in the South China Sea and the increasing US presence in the region have won strong, bipartisan support in Washington, where there are few disagreements with the basic ideas of the pivot. Within the administration, the only real debate has been about the pace of US naval operations in contested areas in the South China Sea.
在南中国海对抗中国并扩大美国在亚太地区存在的决定从一开始就在华盛顿得到两党的大力支持——华盛顿在“转向亚洲”的基本战略思想上鲜有不同意见。在奥巴马政府内部，真正的辩论只围绕着美国海军在南中国海争议海域的行动步伐。广州翻译公司。
However the pivot has not been without its critics. Hugh White, a former Australian defence official and an influential observer on Asia, believes that the US is not prepared for the huge risks and costs that would be required to actually shift China’s strategy.
然而，也并非没有人批评“转向亚洲”战略。澳大利亚原国防部官员、颇具影响力的亚洲问题观察家休•怀特(Hugh White)认为，美国没有准备好应对切实转变对华策略所必然带来的巨大风险和成本。
“The pivot’s architects assumed that a merely symbolic reassertion of US power and resolve would be enough to make China back off,” he argues. “China’s assertive posture in the East and South China Sea today is strong evidence that they were wrong.”
他辩称：“‘转向亚洲’战略的设计者以为，只要象征性地彰显美国实力和决心就足以让中国退让。中国如今在东中国海和南中国海上摆出的强硬姿态明显表明，这种想法是错误的。” 广州翻译公司。
Flawed deal?
有缺陷的TPP？
So how would President Clinton act in Asia? For all her input in defining the Obama administration’s strategy to the region, during the election campaign she has turned against one of its central planks, the 12-nation trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (China is not involved in TPP.)
那么，“希拉里总统”将会在亚洲怎么做？尽管希拉里参与制定了奥巴马政府的亚太战略，但在选战期间，她转变态度反对该战略的核心内容之一，也就是包括12个成员国家（不含中国）的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。
Should Mrs Clinton win the election, the ideal situation for her would be for Congress to approve the trade deal before her inauguration. But if that does not happen, she would face the difficult choice of whether to reopen an agreement which she has described as central to American influence in the region, but which she now believes to be flawed in practice. At the Asean summit in Laos this week, Mr Obama will try to reassure Washington’s regional partners that the trade agreement still remains on track.
如果希拉里赢得选举，对她来说，理想的情况将是国会在她宣誓就职前批准TPP。但如果国会没有批准TPP，她就会面临是否重启该协议的艰难抉择——她曾说TPP对美国在亚太地区的影响力至关重要，但后来又认为该协议在实践中存在缺陷。广州翻译公司。
One former US official who worked closely with the Obama administration on China argues that Mrs Clinton would push more strongly on commercial issues and would be far less patient with the restrictions Beijing places on doing business in its own market.
一位曾密切参与奥巴马政府中国事务的美国前官员表示，希拉里将会在商业问题上施加更大压力，也更加对中国政府对在华外资企业施加的限制没有耐心。
“I don’t think she’ll be willing to park the competitiveness agenda as it relates to China to get, say, a global climate deal,” he adds. “President Obama wanted China’s help on the Iran deal, he wanted the climate deal and he was willing to shelve other more nettlesome issues in order to get them.”
他补充称：“我不认为她会愿意为了签署什么协议——比如说全球气候协议——而搁置与中国相关的竞争力议程。奥巴马总统在伊朗协议上希望得到中国协助，他也希望签署气候协议，他就愿意为了签署这些协议而搁置其他更棘手的问题。” 广州翻译公司。
The sharpest dilemma would be on the South China Sea. The approach Mrs Clinton started to outline in Hanoi in 2010 was to pressure China to back away from efforts to dominate the region, by demonstrating the regional and US opposition. Instead, Beijing has plunged ahead full speed, dramatically increasing over the past three years its efforts to build artificial islands that might one day serve as military bases.
最棘手的将是南中国海问题。希拉里2010年在河内概述的策略是通过展示亚太各国和美国的反对，从而迫使中国放弃主导该地区的努力。结果是，北京方面全力以赴，在过去3年大举建设有朝一日可以用作军事基地的人造岛屿。广州翻译公司。
Among Mrs Clinton’s Asia advisers, the approach being debated is a slightly stepped-up version of the Obama pivot — a series of steps aimed at forging a deeper network of allies and partners that can act as a deterrent to China and reinforce US ideas about trade and freedom of navigation.
希拉里的亚洲事务顾问们正在辩论的策略比奥巴马的“转向亚洲”略有强化，即一系列旨在打造更深层次的盟友和合作伙伴网络的举措，它们可以威慑中国，并强化美国提出的关于贸易和航行自由的观点。广州翻译公司。
The sorts of proposals being discussed include having another aircraft carrier permanently stationed in the region; expanding missile defence in South Korea; increased deployments to the island of Guam; and sending more planes and ships to the Philippines.
正在讨论的建议包括让另一艘航空母舰永久驻扎在亚太地区；扩大韩国的导弹防御系统；增加关岛军力部署，以及向菲律宾派遣更多的飞机和军舰。
“They sound like small, incremental steps, but over time they will add up into a regional framework that can influence China’s rise,” says one former official advising the Clinton campaign. The Clinton team is still betting, in effect, that China has overplayed its hand.
一位为希拉里竞选团队提供建议的前官员表示：“这些听起来像是渐进的小步骤，但随着时间推移，它们将累积为可能影响中国崛起的地区框架。”希拉里团队实际上仍在押注中国高估了自己的实力。
