Jackson Hole: The Fed has not inspired faith in its policy framework
美联储政策信号令人失望
广州翻译公司：萨默斯：我对美联储Jackson Hole全球央行年度研讨会曾经寄予厚望，但这次会议未能认真考虑重大政策改变。
I had high hopes of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The conference was billed as a forum that would look at new approaches to the conduct of monetary policy — something I have been urging as necessary given secular stagnation risks and the sharp decline in the apparent neutral rate of interest. And the speech by Fed chairman Janet Yellen in a relatively academic setting provided an opportunity to signal that the central bank recognised new realities required new approaches.
我曾对美联储(Fed)的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)全球央行年度研讨会寄予厚望。该研讨会被称为寻求货币政策新方法的论坛——鉴于长期增长停滞的风险和中性利率的急剧下降，我一直敦促有必要寻找货币政策新方法。美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)在相对学术的环境下的演讲，让她有机会暗示，美联储已经认识到新现实需要新方法。广州翻译公司。
The Federal Reserve system and its chair are to be applauded for welcoming challengers and critics into their midst. The willingness of many senior officials to meet the Fed Up group of community activists is also encouraging. And it is important for critics like me to remember that the policy explorations of today often become the conventional wisdom of tomorrow. In this regard the fact that the Fed has now recognised that the decline in the neutral rate is something that is much more than a temporary reflection of the financial crisis is a very positive sign.
美联储体系及其主席欢迎质疑者和批评者加入他们的讨论，这值得称赞。许多高级官员愿意会晤社会活动人士团体“Fed Up”的成员，这也令人鼓舞。对于像我这样的批评人士来说，重要的是要记住，今日的政策探索往往会成为明日的普遍看法。从这个方面来说，美联储已认识到中性利率下降远不止是金融危机的临时反映，这是一个非常积极的信号。
On balance though, I am disappointed by what came out of Jackson Hole — judging by press reports since I was not there. First, the near-term policy signals were on the tightening side, which I think will end up hurting both the Fed’s credibility and the economy. Second, the longer-term discussion revealed what I regard as dangerous complacency about the efficacy of the existing tool box. Third, there was failure seriously to consider major changes in the current monetary policy framework.
然而总的来说，我对杰克逊霍尔会议的成果感到失望——我是从媒体报道来判断的，因为我没有参加。首先，短期政策信号趋紧，我认为这最终会伤害美联储的信誉和经济。其次，对更长期政策的讨论暴露出对现有工具组合效力的自满，我认为这非常危险。第三，未能认真考虑对当前货币政策框架做出重大改变。广州翻译公司。
I shall argue each of these points in a blog series this week. At the outset, however, it is important to recognise that the Fed has not earned the right to be intellectually complacent or to expect that others will have faith in its current policy framework. Given the Great Recession and its forecasting record, it is not surprising that Gallup has found that public confidence in the Fed has sharply declined in recent years, though it has increased recently.
我将在本周的一系列博客文章中详述这三点。然而，首先有必要认识到的是，美联储还没有赢得可以在智力上自满或者期望其他人将会信任其当前政策框架的权利。鉴于“大衰退”(Great Recession)以及美联储之前的预测记录，并不令人意外的是，盖洛普(Gallup)发现，公众对美联储的信心近几年急剧下降，尽管最近有所回升。
For nearly a decade, since the mid 2008 Federal Open Market Committee meetings at which many believed that the worst had past, the Fed has been too serene about the economic outlook and a return to past regularities. When the Fed predicted last December that it would raise rates four times in 2016, market participants saw a disconnect from reality. It has been that way for a long time. Figure 1 shows the Fed’s forecasts of its future monetary policies along with what happened since the since it began releasing public forecasts. The central bank has always believed that rate increases and normalisation were around the corner but has never been able to deliver. Figure 2 looks at the current situation showing the “dots” reflecting its forecasts and the market’s prediction of future interest rates. The divergence between the market and even the dovish end of Fed forecasts is clear.
自2008年年中的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议以来，近十年来美联储对经济前景和回归过去常态的看法过于平静。当美联储去年12月预计将在2016年4次加息的时候，市场人士认为这与现实脱节。很长时间以来都是这样。图1显示了美联储对未来货币政策的预测以及自其发布预测以后发生的情况。美联储始终认为，加息和政策正常化就在眼前，但从未能够实现。图2反映当前情况，显示了代表美联储对未来利率预测的“圆点”以及市场预测（红色小三角）。即便美联储鸽派的预测与市场预测的差异也是显而易见的。广州翻译公司。
At Jackson Hole Ms Yellen basically repeated the existing Fed position that rates would be raised at some point when the data were clear that the economy was strong and inflation reaching 2 per cent. Markets took the remarks as mildly dovish until Stanley Fischer, the vice-chairman, was seen on CNBC as interpreting Ms Yellebn as implying that two rate increases by the end of the year were possible, at which point interest rates across the spectrum rose fairly sharply and stock prices fell.
在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，耶伦基本上重复了美联储当前的立场：将在数据明确显示美国经济强劲和通胀达到2%的某一时候加息。市场认为这些言论属于温和的鸽派观点，直至美联储副主席斯坦利•费希尔(Stanley Fischer)在美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)将耶伦的讲话解读为，今年年底前可能有两次加息，结果各类利率应声大幅上涨，同时股市下跌。
The right signal to have sent in my view was very dovish. The Fed has emphasised that its 2 per cent inflation target is a symmetric one. Its current forecast is for a strong economy that will next spring enter its ninth year of recovery. If inflation should not be allowed to rise a bit above 2 per cent in such circumstances, how can it be expected to average 2 per cent over time given that recessions and downturns at some point are inevitable? I hoped that the Fed would make clear that it would tighten only when there appeared a real risk of inflation expectations rising above 2 per cent. At a time when market forecasts of inflation on Fed’s preferred price index are in the range of 1.2 per cent, this is very likely some time off. Some are sceptical of market measures of inflation expectations. Note that survey measures of long-term inflation expectations for both professionals and consumers are near historical lows, and if anything have declined over the last year.
在我看来，正确的信号应该非常温和。美联储强调，其2%的通胀目标是对称的。美联储目前的预测是美国经济强劲，并将在明年春天步入第9个复苏年。如果在这种情况下都不允许通胀上升到略高于2%的水平，鉴于在某个时间点不可避免会发生经济衰退和低迷，长期的平均通胀如何能够达到2%？我希望美联储能够明确表示，美联储只会在通胀预期有上升到2%以上的切实风险时才会采取收紧措施。目前市场根据美联储偏好的价格指数计算的通胀预测在1.2%左右，因此距离这种情况很可能还有一段时间。一些人对市场的通胀预期测算方法持怀疑态度。请注意，对专业人士和消费者长期通胀预期的调查统计结果都接近历史低点，甚至还在去年发生了下降。广州翻译公司。
Additional points that I would have thought appropriate in commenting on for near-term policy include:
其他在我看来适合评论短期政策的观点包括：
With current estimates of the real neutral rate running near zero and there being a downward trend it is far from clear that current policy is highly expansionary. It is plausible that hysteresis effects account for some of the decline in productivity growth and that if so allowing for rapid demand growth might have lasting supply-side benefits. If a 2 perc ent inflation target was appropriate when the neutral real rate was thought to be 2 per cent and stable, surely a higher target is appropriate when the neutral real rate is zero and unstable? In contrast to the risks of inflation exceeding 2 per cent, which are probably very small, the risks of a downturn are very serious. The apparent rigidity of inflation expectations and insensitivity of inflation to measures of slack create extra uncertainties about the conventional idea that unemployment rates in the 4.5 per cent range risk accelerating inflation.
1.当前对实际中性利率的估计值接近零，还存在下行趋势，现在还远远不清楚当前政策是否是高度扩张性的。
2.滞后效应在某种程度上导致了生产率增长放缓，如果是这样，允许需求快速增长可能有持续的供应侧好处，这一观点似乎是合理的。
3.如果中性实际利率被认为是2%且稳定的时候，2%的通胀目标被视为合适，那么中性实际利率是零且不稳定的时候，更高的通胀目标必定是合适的？
4.与通胀超过2%的风险（这个风险很可能很小）相比，经济下行的风险非常严峻。
5.通胀预期看上去的一成不变以及通胀对不景气指标的不敏感性，对一个普遍观点打上了额外问号，即4.5%左右的失业率有加速通胀的危险。广州翻译公司。
I agree with Ms Yellen’s observation that the case for a rate increase now is stronger than it was a few months ago. The US economy certainly does appear to be gaining strength in the second half of the year, the Brexit shock has been easily absorbed and markets are unusually calm. But to say that the case for a rate increase has strengthened is not to say that it has reached the point of being persuasive.
我认同耶伦的观点，即现在比几个月前有更强的理由加息。美国经济确实看起来将在今年下半年加强增长势头，英国退欧的冲击已被轻易吸收，市场平静得不同寻常。但加息的理由变得更强，和加息的理由达到足以使人信服的程度是两码事。
Even if the September employment report is strong, I do not see a case for a rate increase in that month. There is no imminent danger of repeating the 1970s experience where inflation expectations ratcheted up leading to stagflation. If a greater than one in three chance of a rate increase in September was not priced in the markets, the cost of credit for small business would be lower and mortgage rates would decline. Employers would be more confident about hiring. And pressures would be removed from emerging markets. The world economy would be more robust.
即使9月的就业报告很强劲，我也并没有看到在该月加息的理由。重复上世纪70年代通胀预期逐渐上升导致滞涨的经历的危险并未迫近。如果高于三分之一的9月加息概率不被市场计入定价，小企业的信贷成本将降低，抵押贷款利率将会下降。雇主将更有信心招人。新兴市场的压力将会解除。世界经济将更具活力。
