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广州翻译公司:宽松货币政策难以化解债务“宿醉”

作者: 来源: 日期:2016/8/29 8:33:30

Easy money is a dangerous cure for a debt hangover

宽松货币政策难以化解债务“宿醉”

 

广州翻译公司:拜德:央行不应以物价和就业为目标,而是要对银行的审慎贷款负责,警惕廉价货币助长新的信贷热潮。

 

Sweden’s Handelsbanken is an exemplar of prudence, barely touched by the 2008 financial crisis. It operates globally like a small community bank, to the point that it has just fired the chief executive, reportedly for attempting to centralise power. Branches lend as they see fit but are required to scrutinise creditworthiness and shun dodgy borrowers. The target loan loss ratio is zero; low loan losses, in turn, allow the bank to offer competitively priced loans and personalised service to creditworthy customers.

瑞典商业银行(Handelsbanken)是审慎的典范,2008年的金融危机几乎对它毫发未伤。它如同一家小型社区银行一样在全球开展业务,刚刚炒掉了它的首席执行官,据报道原因是他试图将权力集中。分支行可以自行贷款,但必须审查借款者信誉并规避高风险借款者。贷款损失率目标为零;低贷款损失进而使该银行能够向信誉好的客户提供定价有竞争力的贷款以及个性化服务。广州翻译公司。

 

Since it is better placed than lenders that rely on rule books or statistical models to assess the creditworthiness of entrepreneurs, Handelsbanken is also well positioned to satisfy the credit needs of small businesses. What is good for Handelsbanken is therefore good for long-term economic growth as well as for financial stability.

与那些依赖法规或统计模型来评估企业家信誉的银行相比,瑞典商业银行更有优势,因此该银行也能很好地满足小企业的信贷需求。所以,对瑞典商业银行有利的也有利于长期经济增长以及金融稳定。

 

However, prudent case-by-case lending also undermines the stimulative effect of the loose money unleashed by central bankers. Experienced financiers with their fingers on the local pulse will not lend more to less worthy borrowers simply because of low or negative interest rate policies. If anything, easy money — for all the grand theories of its macroeconomic benefits — worries them.

然而,逐笔审慎贷款还削弱了央行官员推出的宽松货币政策对经济产生的刺激效应。熟悉地方情况的有经验的金融家不会只因为低利率或负利率政策增加给信誉不佳的借款者的贷款。如果有什么影响的话,宽松货币政策(尽管关于其宏观经济好处有着宏大的理论)让他们感到担忧。广州翻译公司。

 

All-out monetary easing campaigns mounted by central banks in many developed economies since 2008 have therefore relied on incautious or ill-informed recruits. Cheap money has boosted the share of credit disbursed by lenders willing to take a chance on credit-scoring models or on voguish sectors without detailed knowledge of those to whom they are lending. Yield-hungry insurance companies and pension funds have stampeded into bond markets, allowing issuers to raise vast sums without the scrutiny or conditions that a careful banker would require.

因此,很多发达国家央行自2008年以来推出的全面货币宽松政策有赖于不谨慎或一知半解的金融新手。廉价货币提升了一部分银行所发放信贷的占比,这些银行愿意冒险采用信用积分模式,或涉足时髦行业,而对它们的贷款对象缺乏详细了解。追求收益的保险公司和养老基金匆忙进入债券市场,使债券发行者可以筹集巨额资金,而无需受到谨慎的银行要求的审查或满足其条件。

 

But feeding another credit binge is a dangerous way to cure a debt hangover. After 2008 banks and bond markets financed frenzied over-investment by oil and mining companies.

但助长又一场信贷热潮是治愈债务宿醉的危险方式。2008年以后,银行和债券市场为石油和矿业公司的疯狂过度投资提供了资金。

 

The bust is already with us. Property prices have taken flight from London to Manhattan to Toronto to Stockholm. The US market in car and student loans looks like another credit blowout in waiting.

泡沫破裂已经在我们身边出现。从伦敦到曼哈顿、多伦多、斯德哥尔摩,房地产价格已开始下跌。美国汽车和学生贷款市场看上去像是另一个等待破灭的信贷泡沫。广州翻译公司。

 

Meanwhile, small and medium-sized businesses have been left behind. Big banks that gamble on consumer credit or property loans are reluctant to make business loans without individualised analysis.

与此同时,中小企业被扔在后面。在消费者信贷或房地产贷款上赌博的大银行,不愿在没有进行个体分析的情况下发放企业贷款。

 

Small loans made to businesses by the 10 biggest banks in the US, for instance, have fallen by more than a third from their 2006 peaks even as consumer debt has rebounded. But small businesses that cannot issue bonds in public markets require bank loans to finance their expansion and sustain economic growth and dynamism.

例如,美国10大银行向企业发放的小额贷款从2006年的峰值水平锐减逾三分之一,而消费贷款却反弹。但无法在公开市场发行债券的小企业需要银行贷款来扩张业务,从而支撑经济增长和活力。

 

Central bankers argue that the risks of over-lending are contained and that without their aggressive intervention economies would be mired in a deep recession.

央行官员辩称,过度贷款的风险受到控制,同时没有央行的大规模干预,经济将陷入严重衰退。广州翻译公司。

 

But they base their assessment of risks, and of what would have happened without their intervention, on models whose mathematical sophistication hides a primitive representation of finance and the economy.

但他们对风险以及没有干预将发生的情况的评估是基于不可靠的模型,这些模型的数学复杂性掩盖了金融和经济在模型中原本得到的代表。

 

Until the 2008 crisis, the vaunted US Federal Reserve’s economic model did not include the financial sector. And there is no reason to believe Fed economists can now reliably ascertain the relationship between easy money and racy lending.

2008年金融危机之前,美联储(Fed)大为吹嘘的经济模型不包括金融业。人们没有理由认为美联储经济学家现在能够可信地确定宽松货币和火热贷款之间的关系。

 

Central banks assert that their legal mandates to ensure price stability — and, in the US, full employment — have required unprecedented easing. But the laws do not specify how prices or full employment are to be measured or the range of their acceptable variation. Moreover the 2 per cent inflation that many central banks are striving mightily to sustain implies that prices are steadily increasing rather than steady.

央行坚称,他们确保物价稳定的法定使命(在美国还包括完全就业)要求实行空前的货币宽松。但法律没有详细规定物价或完全就业如何衡量,也没有规定可接受的偏差范围。另外,很多央行努力保持的2%的通胀率意味着,物价正稳步上涨,而不是保持稳定。广州翻译公司。

 

Abolishing central banks, however, is a libertarian fantasy. Instead, governments should remove the justifications and temptations for go-for-broke central banking by eliminating price stability and employment mandates. Both constructs are nebulous, and in a dynamic economy constantly buffeted by myriad cross currents, impossible for central banks to secure.

然而,废除央行是自由主义者的幻想。相反,政府应通过取消物价稳定和完全就业的央行使命,消除孤注一掷的央行行为的合理性和诱惑。物价稳定和完全就业这两个概念都是模糊的,在一个不断变化的经济中,它们会不断受到各种错综复杂因素的影响,央行不可能准确把握它们。

 

What the Fed and other central bankers can — and should — be held responsible for is prudent lending by banks, as was envisioned by the US Congress when it passed legislation creating the Fed in 1913.

美联储和其他央行可以(而且应该)负责的是银行的审慎贷款,就像美国国会在1913年通过创建美联储的立法时所设想的那样。广州翻译公司。

 

More or less stable prices and low joblessness were regarded as desirable byproducts. They were not — and should no longer be — the explicit goal.

物价某种程度上的稳定以及低失业率被视为令人满意的副产品。它们并非(也不应该再成为)明确的目标。

 

The writer is author of ‘A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy’

本文作者著有《呼唤审判:动态经济中的理性金融》(A Call for Judgment: Sensible Finance for a Dynamic Economy)一书

 

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