Investors stockpile cash to offset economic despair
投资者为何热衷持有现金？
广州金融翻译公司：邰蒂：投资者现金持有水平既反映他们不看好经济前景，对央行提升通胀的能力感到悲观，也反映了一种不确定感。
August has so far been notable for yet another set of bizarre market signals. Last week the Bank of England cut rates from 0.5 per cent to a record low of 0.25 per cent and pledged to introduce a £70bn quantitative easing programme.
今年8月以来又出现一系列古怪的市场迹象，值得注意。4日，英国央行(BoE)将利率从0.5%降至0.25%的创纪录低点，并承诺推出700亿英镑的量化宽松项目。广州金融翻译公司。
In the wake of that, yields on sovereign debt in the UK, Ireland and Spain have tumbled to record lows: the rate on benchmark 10-year gilts is now a mere 0.56 per cent [cut: 0.51 per cent]while short-term notes have turned negative.
此后，英国、爱尔兰和西班牙的主权债券收益率暴跌至创纪录低点：基准的十年期英国国债收益率降到0.56%，同时短期债券收益率为负值。
More startling still, the total global volume of sovereign and corporate bonds with negative nominal yields last week rose above $12.6tn, according to data assembled for the Financial Times by Tradeweb, the financial services group. [PRIVATE RESEARCH - NOT YET AVAILABLE ]That represents almost half of all western debt. By historical standards this is extraordinary — not least because investors continue to gobble up those notes, even though they will lose money on redemption.
更让人震惊的是，金融服务机构Tradeweb为英国《金融时报》整理的数据显示，8月第一周，全球名义收益率为负值的主权债和企业债总规模突破12.6万亿美元。这几乎相当于西方主权债券规模的一半。从历史标准来看，这不同寻常，主要是因为投资者继续大量买进这些债券，即便他们赎回时将会亏钱。广州金融翻译公司。
If you want a further sign of how distorted the system is, take a look at another indicator that does not usually attract much attention because it is much harder to track: the attitude to cash of investors and treasurers.
如果你想要进一步了解整个体系扭曲到了何种程度，那就看看另一个因为更难追踪而通常不太受关注的指标吧：投资者和企业财务人员对现金的态度。
In recent years it has often been assumed that one reason central banks cut rates is to force investors and companies to move funds from low-yielding assets, such as bonds or cash, into more productive investments that could produce better returns and growth.
最近几年人们通常认为，央行降息的一个理由是迫使投资者和公司将资金从债券或现金等低收益资产，转到可能提高收益和促进经济增长的更具生产性的投资上。
But that economic theory is not playing out. A couple of weeks ago, for example, the US Association for Financial Professionals published a survey of corporate treasurers. This suggests that, far from becoming cash-averse, they are planning to increase rather than decrease their holdings of cash this summer. Indeed, they are more enthusiastic about cash than at any point since 2011.
但这种经济理论并未奏效。例如，几周前，美国财务管理专业人士协会(Association of Financial Professionals)发布了一份针对企业财务人员的调查。该调查显示，他们正在计划在今年夏季增加而非减少现金持有，绝非不愿持有现金。实际上，他们比2011年以来的任何时候都热衷于持有现金。广州金融翻译公司。
A separate survey of investors from Bank of America Merrill Lynch echoes this point. In July the world’s biggest asset managers said they had 5.8 per cent of their assets in cash. The level has been rising this year and now stands at its highest point since November 2001, in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. Remark­ably, it even tops cash holdings during the post-Lehman panic in 2008.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)对投资者进行的一份调查呼应了这种观点。今年7月，这家全球最大的资产管理公司表示，投资者的资产中有5.8%是现金。今年现金水平一直在上升，现在则达到自2001年11月——世贸中心遭遇9/11恐怖袭击之后——以来的最高水平，甚至超过2008年雷曼兄弟(post-Lehman Brothers)破产引发恐慌期间的现金持有水平。
What explains this state of affairs? One factor is that asset managers and investors are downbeat about the economy and pessimistic about the ability of central bankers — or anyone else — to raise inflation. The Association for Financial Professionals, for example, says US corporate treasurers fret about a “tepid domestic economy and continued sluggishness” of global growth. The Merrill Lynch survey shows that growth expectations are sinking.
如何解释这种情况？一个原因是，资产管理公司和投资者不看好经济前景，对央行官员（或其他所有人）提升通胀的能力感到悲观。例如，美国财务管理专业人士协会表示，美国企业财务人员担心“国内经济疲弱和全球增长持续低迷”。美银美林调查显示，增长预期下降。广州金融翻译公司。
But economic gloom cannot explain the entire tale. Neither the asset managers nor the treasurers are forecasting a full-blown recession, let alone the type of 1930s-style depression that bond prices might imply. On the contrary, in July “only” 17 per cent of asset managers predicted a recession at all.
但经济低迷无法解释全部。无论是资产管理公司还是企业财务人员目前都不认为会出现全面衰退，更别提当前债券价格暗示的那种上世纪30年代出现的萧条。相反，今年7月，“只有”17%的资产管理公司预见到会出现衰退。
So a more likely explanation is that the pattern reflects a more widespread, and profound, sense of uncertainty. AFP points to the fact that treasurers are worried about Brexit and political upheaval. The Merrill Lynch survey indicates that asset managers are very fearful about “geopolitical risk” and protectionism.
因此，更可能的解释是，这种模式反映出更为普遍和深远的不确定感。美国财务管理专业人士协会指出如下事实，即企业财务人员担心英国退欧和政治动荡。美银美林的调查显示，资产管理公司非常担心“地缘政治风险”和保护主义。
Ominously, investors are disoriented by the actions of central banks. One of the most fascinating details of the Merrill Lynch survey, for example, is that there has recently been a jump in the proportion of participants who expect that “at least one central bank” will introduce “helicopter money”— meaning it will hand out cash in a desperate bid to boost prices — in the next year. Indeed 39 per cent of respondents expect this. To put it another way, asset managers fear the policy landscape is about to become even weirder. That is yet another reason for fear.
投资者对央行举措感到困惑，这是一个不祥之兆。例如，美银美林的调查中最耐人寻味的细节之一是，预计“至少有一家央行将会于明年推出‘直升机撒钱’的受访者的比例最近大幅飙升”——“直升机撒钱”意味着央行将会为了推升物价而向市场注入大量资金。实际上，39%的受访者预计了这种情况。换言之，资产管理公司担心政策环境将会变得更加捉摸不定。这是担忧的又一个理由。广州金融翻译公司。
It is possible to see a silver lining in this pattern. After all, as one leading American hedge fund told clients this week, the more investors stash their funds in ultra-low yielding assets, the more this creates a potential pile of unspent monetary “fuel” that could one day spark a recovery if that all-important ingredient of confidence returns.
这种模式也可能存在一线希望。毕竟，正如一家美国领先对冲基金上周告诉客户的那样，投资者越将资金藏匿于超低收益率的资产，就越有可能剩余大量货币“燃料”——如果最重要的信心要素回归，这些燃料总有一天会引发复苏。
Right now it is anybody’s guess what might light that flame of confidence and prompt investors to move their funds from low-yielding assets into something more productive. The one thing that is, sadly, clear is that the spark is unlikely to come from further central bank rate cuts alone. At least, not in a world that already has almost $13tn of negative-yielding bonds — and where the actions of central banks look less reassuring by the day.
现在谁也说不准如何才能点燃信心，促使投资者将资金从低收益率资产投向更具生产性的资产。遗憾的是，有一点是显而易见的：仅仅依靠央行进一步降息不太可能产生这种火花。至少，在一个已经有近13万亿美元负收益债券、央行举措看起来越来越不可靠的世界里不太可能。
