广州银行翻译公司：Shanghai shows that China reforms are possible
上海银行业可为中国改革提供示范
广州银行翻译公司：廖岷：在人们担忧中国银行业风险之际，上海地区不良贷款率连续8个月下降，远远低于全国商业银行的不良率。
Amid increasing concern about risks in China’s banking sector, the latest banking data from Shanghai tells a story of resilience. The region’s non-performing loan (NPL) ration has declined for eight consecutive months to 0.79 per cent at the end of June, much lower than the 1.81 per cent ratio for China’s commercial banks as a whole. Outstanding NPLs shrank by Rmb3.6bn since the beginning of 2016.
在人们日益担忧中国银行业中的风险之际，上海最新银行业数据却体现出一定的弹性。上海地区的不良贷款率(NPL)连续8个月下降，至6月底降至0.79%，远远低于全国商业银行1.81%的不良率。自2016年初以来，上海不良贷款余额减少了36亿元人民币。广州银行翻译公司。
Special-mention loans — a classification for loans that might be at risk of becoming NPLs — also decreased in Shanghai, both in volume terms and as a ratio of total loans. Thus, it’s clear that NPL figures aren’t being manipulated by hiding bad loans in the special-mention category.The good results in Shanghai come amid concerns about over-capacity, over-leverage and zombie companies in China. It seems that Shanghai is less exposed to the adverse impact of capacity reduction and de-leveraging than other provinces. This is a positive signal, as today’s Shanghai might point the way forward for the rest of China.Encouragingly, Shanghai’s turnaround is more structural than cyclical, as it has been driven by economic restructuring, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and the city’s efforts to build itself into a center of scientific innovation.On the supply side, the services share of gross domestic product exceeded 70 per cent for the first half of 2016 for the first time, compared to 54 per cent for China as a whole. On the demand side, fixed asset investment grew only 5.6 per cent in 2015, far below the national average of 10 per cent.Furthermore, the growth rate of private investment is higher in Shanghai than the national figure. China is transforming its economy from one driven by exports, capital-intensive industries, state-owned enterprises, and local governments to one that is driven more by market forces, consumption, services and innovative private enterprises. Shanghai leads the way. This is mirrored in bank portfolios.Yet good weather alone does not make a bountiful harvest. The bulk of Shanghai’s sound loan quality can also be attributed to the banking regulator’s forward-looking supervision of credit risk since 2011.In 2011, early warning indicators offered compelling evidence of serious over-indebtedness in Shanghai’s steel-trading industry. The regulators found fake receipts from warehouses; traders pledging their same steel holdings in the warehouses quietly as collateral to multiple lenders; traders guaranteeing each other’s loans to expand borrowing; traders investing in real estate with bank loans ostensibly intended to buy steel; and other shenanigans.For regulators, the combination of excessive lending and elevated steel prices was extremely worrying: when steel market inevitably went south along with a slowing the economy, a negative feedback loop could have sparked a financial avalanche.
上海地区的关注类贷款——有变为不良贷款风险的一类贷款——无论是绝对值还是占比也都有所减少。显然银行并没有通过把不良贷款隐藏在关注类贷款类别之下而操纵不良贷款数据。上海银行业取得上述良好结果之际，中国的产能过剩、杠杆过高和僵尸企业等问题正引发担忧。与其他省份相比，上海似乎较少受到去产能、去杠杆的负面影响。这是一个积极的信号，因为今天的上海可能会为中国其他地区指明一条前进道路。令人振奋的是，上海的状况好转更多是结构性的，而不是周期性的，因为推动这种好转的是经济结构重组、上海自贸区(FTZ)以及上海市为把自己打造成科技创新中心而采取的努力。在供给侧，2016年上半年服务业占地方生产总值(GDP)的比重第一次超过了70%，而全国范围内这一比例为54%。在需求侧，2015年固定资产投资仅增加5.6%，远低于全国10%的平均增幅。此外，上海私人投资增长率也高于全国水平。中国正在进行经济转型，从由出口、资本密集型产业、国企和地方政府驱动的增长模式过渡到更多由市场力量、消费、服务和创新型私人企业驱动的增长模式。上海在起着带头作用。银行的资产组合就反映了这一点。中国正在进行经济转型，从由出口、资本密集型产业、国企和地方政府驱动的增长模式过渡到更多由市场力量、消费、服务和创新型私人企业驱动的增长模式。上海在起着带头作用。银行的资产组合就反映了这一点。中国正在进行经济转型，从由出口、资本密集型产业、国企和地方政府驱动的增长模式过渡到更多由市场力量、消费、服务和创新型私人企业驱动的增长模式。上海在起着带头作用。银行的资产组合就反映了这一点。不过，单靠好天气不能保证就有好收成。上海贷款质量良好，很大程度上也可以归功于银行监管部门自2011年以来针对信贷风险采取的前瞻式监管。在2011年，先期预警指标提供了上海钢材贸易行业严重负债过度的确凿证据。监管机构发现了来自仓库的虚假仓单；贸易商悄悄把存放在仓库里的同一批钢材抵押给多家贷款机构；贸易商之间互为担保，以增加借款；贸易商把表面上要购买钢材的银行贷款用于投资房地产；还有其他一些把戏。对监管机构而言，过度放贷和钢价高企两相叠加是极其令人担忧的：当钢材市场不可避免地随着经济放缓而下滑时，由此产生的恶性循环可能引发一场金融雪崩。广州银行翻译公司。
The China Banking Regulatory Commision’s (CBRC) Shanghai office moved to act before the music stopped. The agency issued warning to banks on exposure to steel traders and cracked down on illegal and imprudent practices related to the steel lending spree. As a result, Shanghai banks’ exposure to steel traders has decreased from Rmb220bn in 2011 to Rmb21.4bn today. Of that reduction, Rmb150bn is due to loan repayment or restructuring, while only Rmb48.6bn in loans turned sour.
中国银监会(CBRC)上海监管局在音乐停下来之前就采取了行动。上海银监局就对钢贸商放贷问题向银行发出警告，并打击了与钢铁贷款狂潮相关的非法与不审慎做法。结果是，上海银行业对钢贸商的贷款从2011年的2200亿元人民币降到214亿元人民币。在贷款减少额中，1500亿元人民币是因为贷款回收或重组，而变为不良贷款的仅为486亿元人民币。
More importantly, bankers learned their lesson from reckless lending. Instead of borrowing profits from the future, the Shanghai banking industry has prepared in advance for future hardships.
更重要的是，银行工作人员从鲁莽放贷中吸取了教训。上海银行业没有从未来预支利润，而是提前为未来困境做好了准备。
However, Shanghai’s banking sector still has an Achilles heel: outsized exposure to real estate and high property prices. In February this year, home prices rose at the fastest pace in almost two years in China. Shanghai ranked second after Shenzhen in new home price growth, with average prices up 20.6 per cent from a year earlier.
然而，上海银行业仍有一个致命的薄弱环节：对房地产领域贷款太多，以及房地产价格高企。今年2月，中国住宅价格涨幅为近两年来最快。上海新房价格涨幅全国第二，仅次于深圳，平均价格同比上涨20.6%。广州银行翻译公司。
To ward off credit risks and tame the property market, Shanghai issued a slew of policies in March. Under the new rules, those who already own are subject to a 50 per cent downpayment requirement, up from 40 per cent previously, when applying for home mortgages. For large or expensive homes, the minimum down payment is 70 per cent. Such counter-cyclical macro-prudential supervision will make banks better prepared with sufficient buffers against changes in property prices.In short, policymakers and regulators need to step in before problem start. Otherwise, it’s like a corpse visiting the doctor.Financial stability is one side of the policy pendulum; the other is the drive for new sources of growth. To this end, the economy must be opened up to market forces, and the policy makers and regulators should let it happen.In the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the CBRC Shanghai Office has set up an ‘innovation hub’ via an interactive platform between banks and regulators. This mechanism allows banks to introduce innovative products on a trial basis after adequate communication with regulators. So far, regulators have green lit 20 trial programmes through this platform, including cross-boarder M&A loans that aren’t permitted under normal regulations. Some Rmb40bn in M&A loans have been granted under this program.This platform has also encouraged new models of bank lending for technology startups. By allowing banks to hold these startups’ equity warrants or options, banks can substantially increase their capability to lend to these companies. This programme was trialed in Shanghai before its nationwide introduction in 2016.There is broad agreement about the need for both regulation and reform, but as China is now discovering, these measures are hard even at the best of times, let alone when economic fundamentals deteriorate. The story of Shanghai’s banking sector is a regional one, but it offers a strong example for the whole of China.
为防范信贷风险并抑制房地产市场，上海在3月发布了一系列政策。在新规下，已有住房者在申请住房抵押贷款时，须缴纳50%的首付款，高于此前的40%。对于大户型或豪宅，最低首付款比例为70%。这种逆周期的宏观审慎监管有利于银行拥有充足的缓冲来应对房地产价格变化。简言之，政策制定者和监管者需要在问题开始之前介入。不然，就会像是等人死了才去看病。政策钟摆的一侧是金融稳定，另一侧是寻找新的增长源头。为实现这一目的，经济必须对市场力量开放，政策制定者和监管者应当让这一点变为现实。在上海自贸区，上海银监局通过银行与监管机构之间的一个互动平台设立了一个“创新中心”。这一机制允许银行在与监管层充分沟通后，试验性地引入创新型产品。迄今为止，监管机构已通过这一平台放行了20个试点项目，其中包括在正常规定下不允许的跨境并购(M&A)贷款。该项目下发放的并购贷款已达400亿元人民币左右。这一平台也鼓励针对创业型科技企业采用新的银行贷款模式。通过允许银行持有这些创业企业的认股权证或股票期权，银行可以大幅提高自身对这些公司的贷款发放能力。这一项目先在上海开展试点，2016年在全国范围内推广。人们普遍认同监管和改革都是必要的，但正如中国如今所发现的，即便在最好时期，这些措施也难以实行，经济基本面恶化之时就更不必说了。上海银行业的故事只是一个地区性案例，但它可以为整个中国提供一个强有力的范例。
Liao Min is director-general of the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s Shanghai office
本文作者为中国银监会上海监管局局长
