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香港房地产翻译公司:香港房地产市场前景堪忧

作者: 来源: 日期:2016/7/28 8:24:39

Tough outlook for Hong Kong property

香港房地产市场前景堪忧

 

香港房地产翻译公司:过去十年香港楼价大涨,但在去年9月见顶。投资者表示,随着中国经济增长放慢,香港楼市正在进入调整阶段。

 

In the heart of Wan Chai, on one of Hong Kong’s busiest streets, stands a 33-storey office tower that earlier this year became the second most expensive property to change hands in a city that boasts the world’s costliest property market.

在香港最繁忙地带之一湾仔(Wan Chai)的中心,坐落着一幢30多层的写字楼。今年早些时候,这幢大楼的易手使其成为世界最贵楼市香港的第二贵地产项目。香港房地产翻译公司。

 

China Everbright, the financial conglomerate that bought the Dah Sing Financial Centre for HK$10bn ($1.29bn), is just one of a number of mainland Chinese companies to have splashed out on headquarters in the city over the past year.

以100亿港元(合12.9亿美元)购入大新金融中心(Dah Sing Financial Centre)的中国光大控股(China Everbright),只是过去一年里在香港大举购置总部大楼的众多内地企业之一。

 

Banks, asset managers and insurance companies have flocked from mainland China to acquire prime Hong Kong office buildings, prompting the territory’s government to announce it will release more land for commercial redevelopment in the oversubscribed heart of the city.

银行、基金公司和保险公司从内地涌向香港,收购这里的高端写字楼,导致香港政府宣布将释放更多土地,在火爆的城市中心地段进行商业再开发。

 

But as economic growth slows in China, institutional investors from further afield say the city’s property market has overheated and is entering a correctional phase.

但是,海外机构投资者表示,随着中国经济增长放慢,香港房地产市场已经过热,正在进入调整阶段。香港房地产翻译公司。

 

“For years we had Chinese growth going gangbusters and US rates going down,” says Josh Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual Global Investors, the asset management arm of Old Mutual, the insurer. “But transaction volumes have dried up quite significantly, so we are not really sure what the prices are. That looks like a tough fundamental outlook.”

“多年以来,我们看到中国增长势如破竹,而美国增长率却在下降,”保险商耆卫(Old Mutual)旗下资产管理公司Old Mutual Global Investors的亚洲股票业务主管乔希•克拉布(Josh Crabb)说,“但是,交易量下降得相当厉害,所以我们并不真的确定当前价格到底如何。看起来,香港市场的基本面展望非常严峻。”

 

According to government sources, property sales in Hong Kong fell almost 40 per cent in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2015 — both in terms of price and volume. An index from the Rating and Valuation Department released this month showed the commercial sector was a particular casualty, with prices falling 5.7 per cent in May compared with the same month last year.

政府部门的数据显示,无论在销售额和销售量上看,今年上半年香港房地产销售较去年同期下降了近40%。香港差饷物业估价署(Rating and Valuation Department)本月发布的一项指数表明,商业地产受到的冲击尤为严重,今年5月价格较去年同期下降了5.7%。香港房地产翻译公司。

 

Mr Crabb has taken no exposure to Hong Kong’s property market since setting up in Asia 18 months ago, because he says prices are too high and affordability too low.

自从18个月前在亚洲设立业务以来,克拉布一直没有涉足香港房地产市场,因为他表示,价格太高了,可担负性太差。

 

Dirk Philippa, portfolio manager of Fidelity International’s global property fund, has also cut investments in Hong Kong from a 6-8 per cent overweight two years ago, relative to benchmarks, to a 1 per cent overweight position.

富达国际(Fidelity International)旗下全球地产基金的投资组合经理德克•菲利帕(Dirk Philippa)也削减了在香港的投资,把配置比重从两年前相对基准超配6%至8%调整至超配1%。

 

 “It is an area where clearly the fundamentals are slowing down,” he says. “I sold down a little bit, then the whole correction happened very quickly, so I waited for a rebound and sold there.”

“在香港地区,房地产的基本面明显放慢下来,”他说,“我减持了一点儿,然后很快发生了全面调整,所以我等到反弹后,卖出了一部分。” 香港房地产翻译公司。

 

Property prices in Hong Kong have surged over the past decade, but hit a peak in September when jitters about China’s economy took hold.

香港房地产价格过去十年大幅上涨,但在去年9月见顶,那时中国经济引发的紧张占据了主导。

 

Rents at the top end of the market have fallen 6.4 per cent, more sharply than in any other city except Nairobi, according to Knight Frank, the property company. Last year, just after prices fell in September, Adidas, the sportswear group, leased a 13,000 square foot shop in the city for 22 per cent less than its former occupier, Coach, the accessories brand.

房地产经纪公司莱坊(Knight Frank)的数据显示,今年第一季度,香港豪宅租金同比下跌5.2%,跌幅超过内罗毕以外的任何其他城市。就在去年9月价格下跌之后,运动品牌阿迪达斯(Adidas)在香港租入了一间1.3万平方英尺的店铺,租金相比上一个租户、配饰品牌蔻驰(Coach)低了22%。

 

Economists say that both the residential and commercial markets in Hong Kong will be hurt by the same factors: slower growth in China, the depreciation of the renminbi, a crackdown on corruption on the mainland, and predictions that the US’s low interest-rate environment is due to end. However, government cooling measures introduced in 2012 to reduce speculative investment in Hong Kong property are an additional damper on the residential sector.

经济学家表示,香港住宅市场和商业地产市场都将受到一些相同因素的损害:中国增长放缓、人民币贬值、中国内地反腐以及美国低利率环境将走向终结的预期。然而,住宅市场的发展还受到一个额外因素的阻碍,即2012年政府为减少香港房地产市场上的投机活动而出台的“降温”措施。香港房地产翻译公司。

 

 “Cooling measures [are] the most important issue affecting the [residential] property market in Hong Kong,” says Thomas Lam, head of valuation at Knight Frank. “That is why all the major institutional plans are looking at the office market in the past two or three years.”

“‘降温’措施(是)影响香港(住宅)地产市场的最重要问题,”莱坊估价主管林浩文(Thomas Lam)说,“这正是过去两三年里所有大型机构的方案都在关注写字楼市场的原因。”

 

Mr Lam predicts that any recovery in the market will rely on appetite from cash-rich companies from mainland China, with foreign investors restricting their investments to real estate investment trusts or stocks exposed to developers, rather than actual property.

林浩文预测称,市场的任何复苏都将倚赖来自资金充沛的内地公司的需求,同时外国投资者将仅限于投资于房地产投资信托或者涉及地产开发商的股票,而不会真的买入房产。

 

Structural challenges in the market, which is dominated by large property developers, have generally acted as disincentives to large European and US asset managers.

在这个被大型地产开发商主宰的市场,结构性挑战通常成为抑制欧美大型资产管理公司的因素。香港房地产翻译公司。

 

Erle Spratt, who manages M&G’s Asia property fund, an open-ended investment vehicle, says it is risky to invest directly because assets are not easy to find and price. “It is a very difficult market to buy assets in for investors like us, because developers have very substantial holdings and they tend not to sell,” he says.

执掌M&G旗下亚洲地产基金(一种开放式投资工具)的厄尔•斯普拉特(Erle Spratt)说,直接投资房产存在风险,因为这样的资产很难物色和定价。“这是一个像我们这样的投资者很难买到房产的市场,因为开发商持有大量房产,他们通常不卖,”他说。

 

But John Davies, head of institutional investment in the Hong Kong team at CBRE, the property services business, says that lower prices should make the market more reliable. “The market is showing characteristics of a mature market, which institutional investors understand better,” he says.

但是,房地产经纪公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)香港机构投资团队主管约翰•戴维斯(John Davies)说,价格下降应会让香港房地产市场变得更加可靠。“这个市场正在显示出机构投资者更了解的成熟市场的特征,”他说。香港房地产翻译公司。

 

William Leung, portfolio manager at Cohen & Steers, the US investment house with $4bn of assets exposed to Asia, agrees. He argues that speculative investment will be driven out of the market as prices fall. He adds that a trend in the industry towards alternative investments should mean that the price of real estate investment trusts rises even if the value of underlying assets grow more slowly. “We don’t think this correction will be so sharp,” he says.

持有40亿美元亚洲相关资产的美国投资机构Cohen & Steers的基金经理梁纬濂(William Leung)认同这一点。他主张,随着价格下跌,投机性投资将被驱逐出市场。他补充称,行业中另类投资热度上升的趋势应当意味着,即便基础资产的价值上涨得更慢,房地产投资信托的价格也会上升。“我们认为,这次调整的幅度将不会太大,”他说。

 

For now, occasional high-ticket deals such as the Dah Sing Financial Centre and the purchase of a HK$2.1bn luxury house on the affluent Peak, come amid wider pessimism about the sector. The office sector showed the most activity in the first quarter this year, but this still translated into only eight deals in total, according to CBRE.

就目前而言,虽然偶尔出现一些高价交易(比如大新金融中心、以21亿港元售出的太平山顶豪宅),但整个行业弥漫着广泛的悲观情绪。世邦魏理仕数据显示,今年第一季度房地产业最活跃的部分是写字楼,但交易总量也不过8笔。

 

香港房地产翻译公司

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