广州翻译公司：美国仍未摆脱“伊战后遗症”

Iraqwar remains as radioactive in US politics as in British

美国仍未摆脱“伊战后遗症”

广州翻译公司：代尔：伊拉克战争仍在塑造美国政治以及今年的选举，同时它也为今年美国的许多政治动荡提供了背景音乐。

Sir John Chilcot’s report into theIraqwar has provided British politics with a long-awaited moment of catharsis, a stinging condemnation of Tony Blair and his push to take theUKinto the conflict. Maybe the report does not provide the basis for a war crimes trial that the former prime minister’s fiercest critics had hoped for, but in the clipped tones of the British establishment it lays out a verdict that will probably define his reputation.

约翰•奇尔科特爵士(Sir John Chilcot)的伊战报告为英国政界带来了期待已久的宣泄时刻，该报告对英国前首相托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)及其推动英国介入冲突的做法进行了严厉谴责。或许这份报告不会成为最严厉抨击布莱尔的批评者所希望的战犯审判的基础，但用英国建制派的短促语调来说，它可能会对布莱尔的名声盖棺定论。广州翻译公司。

By contrast, it might seem as if theUShas already moved on. In a passionate election year, theIraqwar has not been one of the main flashpoints. Even Bernie Sanders, the one consistent critic of the invasion, was always much more eager to talk about the economy.

相比之下，美国看起来好像已经走出伊战阴影。在一个充满激情的选举年，伊战并不是主要热点之一。就连老爱抨击美国入侵伊拉克的伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)也总是更热衷于谈论经济。

Yet surface impressions can deceive. Make no mistake: the legacy of the war continues to shapeUSpolitics and this year’s elections. Just as the emotions around the 2003 invasion are alive in theUK, they also provide the background music for much of the turbulent politics this year.

然而，表面印象可能会欺骗人。别搞错了：伊战遗产仍在塑造美国政治以及今年的选举。就像英国依然对2003年入侵伊拉克耿耿于怀一样，它们也为今年的许多政治动荡提供了背景音乐。广州翻译公司。

There are two tactical reasons why theIraqwar does not drive the immediate debate. For a start, the two candidates effectively cancel each other out. As a senator, Hillary Clinton voted for the war but has since apologised. Donald Trump insists he was against the war, but there is that awkward pre-invasion interview with Howard Stern when he said it was a good idea. And unlike theUK, the politics of theUSare complicated by the 2007 “surge” of troops that helped reduce sectarian violence. For some Republicans, this means the rise of Isis was not the product of the invasion, but of Barack Obama’s withdrawal of forces in 2011.

伊战没有成为当前辩论主题有两个战术上的理由。首先，两位候选人实际上半斤八两。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在担任参议员的时候投票支持伊战，但自那以后表示了道歉。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)则坚称他反对伊战，但令人尴尬的是，他在美国入侵伊拉克之前接受霍华德•斯特恩(Howard Stern)采访时表示，这是个好主意。与英国不一样的是，美国政治因2007年有助于减少宗派冲突的“大规模增兵”而变得复杂起来。对一些共和党人来说，这意味着“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的兴起并非入侵伊拉克造成的，而是巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama) 2011年从伊拉克撤军的结果。

“We had it won,” John McCain, the Republican senator who lost to Mr Obama in 2008, said last month. “We had it won inIraqthanks to the surge. And we left without leaving anybody there, and some of us predicted exactly what was going to happen.” At a rhetorical level, this reduces the war to a draw: George W Bush’s bungled invasion versus Mr Obama’s overhasty departure.

2008年大选中败给奥巴马的共和党参议员约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)上月表示：“我们打赢了伊战，感谢大规模的增兵，我们在伊拉克取得了胜利。然后我们完全撤离了伊拉克，我们当中的一些人准确地预计到将会发生什么情况。”从口头层面说，这让伊战话题沦为一场势均力敌的较量：一方说小布什(George W Bush)入侵伊拉克搞砸了局面，另一方说奥巴马撤军过于草率。广州翻译公司。

Yet behind these debates, theIraqwar remains as radioactive an issue inUSpolitics as it is inBritain. That Mr Bush’s approval rating has recovered over the past eight years is the result of his impeccable performance as a former president, not a softening view of the war.

然而在这些争论的背后，和在英国一样，伊战在美国依然是一个具有放射性的问题。小布什在过去8年支持率回升是他作为一名前总统完美表现的结果，并非是人们对伊战观点软化的缘故。

Iraqis one of the root causes of the crisis in the Republican party, the glaring gap between the party leadership and its voters that has been so crudely exposed this year. Rather than offering an honest reflection on the invasion, let alone mea culpas for their role in the process, most elected Republicans have fallen back on blaming faulty intelligence. But that has not convinced the base.

伊拉克是共和党危机的根源之一，共和党领导层与其选民之间的分歧在今年显露无疑。大多数当选的共和党人拿情报错误当借口，而不是诚实反思入侵行为，更别提他们在这个过程中错误充当的角色。但这没有让共和党基层选民信服。广州翻译公司。

During the February primary in military-friendly South Carolina, Mr Trump claimed Mr Bush had “lied” about weapons of mass destruction to make the case for war. Republican elders predicted disaster for uttering such a heresy. Instead, he won by 10 percentage points.

今年2月，在对军方友好的南卡罗来纳州举行的初选期间，特朗普宣称，小布什“谎称”伊拉克有大规模杀伤性武器，从而为出兵伊拉克制造了借口。共和党资深人士预计特朗普如此口无遮拦会遭致灾难性失败。结果他赢了10个百分点。

The 2003 invasion also helped generate the broader cynicism and mistrust about elites, the new politics of anger that is flourishing on both sides of the Atlantic. In theUK, a line can be drawn between Mr Blair’s perceived dishonesty overIraqand the pre-Brexit boast of Conservative leadership candidate Michael Gove that “people in this country have had enough of experts”. In theUSthe populist insurgencies of Mr Trump and Mr Sanders have drawn strength from economic anxiety and stagnant wages. But before the financial crisis shattered public confidence in elites, theIraqwar had already created a huge dent.

2003年美国入侵伊拉克也促使人们对精英人士产生了更广泛的疑虑和不信任，新的政治怒火在大西洋两岸愈燃愈旺。在英国，一方面人们认为布莱尔在伊战问题上有失诚实，另一方面保守党领袖候选人迈克尔•戈夫(Michael Gove)在退欧公投前宣称“这个国家的人们已经受够了专家”。在美国，特朗普和桑德斯的民粹主义“叛乱”从经济担忧和薪资停滞中汲取了力量。但在金融危机让公众完全对精英人士失去信心之前，伊战就已经重创公众信心。广州翻译公司。

Finally, theIraqwar lingers over the anguished debate this election year about theUSrole in the world. Almost all the 17 Republican candidates accused the Obama administration of inaction inSyria, but only one, Lindsey Graham, proposed sendingUSground forces to actually fight Isis. He polled less than 1 per cent. Mr Obama would not have been elected president for eight years without his opposition to the “dumb war” and for at least the next generation,Iraqwill colour US attitudes about military intervention.

最后，在这个选举年对美国在世界上的角色的痛苦辩论中，伊战阴影挥之不去。17名共和党候选人几乎全都指责奥巴马政府在叙利亚无所作为，但只有林塞•格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)提议派遣美国地面部队真正与ISIS开战。他的支持率不足1%。奥巴马如果不是反对“愚蠢的战争”，就不会当选8年的总统，至少对下一代人来说，伊拉克战争将会影响美国对军事干预的态度。

广州翻译公司