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广州英语翻译公司:英国退欧压低人民币汇率至五年半低点

作者: 来源: 日期:2016-07-07 8:33:50

Renminbi slides under Brexit pressur

英国退欧压低人民币汇率至五年半低点

 

广州英语翻译公司:市场分析人士表示,因近日中国央行将人民币中间价设定在较弱水平,人民币进一步贬值“隐约可见”。

 

The renminbi has dropped to its lowest level against the dollar in five and a half years, becoming the latest currency to be hit by Brexit.

人民币兑美元汇率跌至五年半最低水平,成为受英国退欧打击的最新一种货币。广州英语翻译公司。

 

At one stage, a dollar was worth as much as Rmb6.6947, a level not touched since November 2010. The renminbi has fallen for five consecutive trading sessions against the greenback and, since the start of April, has lost 3.6 per cent.

两者间的汇率一度达到1美元兑6.6947元人民币,这是自201011月以来未见的水平。人民币已经连续五个交易日对美元下跌,自4月初以来累计跌幅达到3.6%

 

On a trade-weighted basis, the renminbi has also been falling. The basket that measures the currency against its main trading partners is down 2.2 per cent during June.

在贸易加权基础上,人民币近期也一直在下降。相对于一篮子主要贸易伙伴的货币,人民币汇率在6月份期间下跌2.2%。广州英语翻译公司。

 

The basket remains in a steep downtrend for now,” said Brad Bechtel of Jefferies International.

“人民币兑这个篮子的汇率眼下仍处于一个陡峭的下降趋势,”杰富瑞(Jefferies)的布拉德•贝克特尔(Brad Bechtel)表示。

 

The fall pushes the renminbi towards Rmb6.70, which was a target several FX strategists had set for the currency for the end of the year. Its latest decline follows the People’s Bank of China setting a weaker midpoint level for the currency’s trading band.

此轮跌势将人民币兑美元汇率推向1美元兑6.70元人民币的关口,这是几名外汇策略师此前预测的年底汇率水平。近日跌势受到了中国人民银行(PBoC)将人民币中间价设定在较弱水平的引导。广州英语翻译公司。

 

Hao Zhou, emerging markets economist at Commerzbank, said the PBoC’s fixing rates were triggering speculation that further depreciation was “looming on the horizon”.

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)新兴市场经济学家周浩表示,中国央行设定的中间价水平引发外界揣测,人民币进一步贬值“隐约可见”。

 

Global market attention has veered this year from China’s economic slowdown and the oil price to the US economy and now Brexit.

今年,全球市场的关注焦点从中国的经济增长放缓和油价低迷转向美国经济,现在又转向英国退欧。

 

Especially, the Brexit referendum on June 24 induced a shockwave to the global FX market, resulting in a higher risk aversion mood,” said a press release issued by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, the foreign exchange division of the PBoC.

“特别是624日英国脱欧公投导致全球外汇市场动荡,市场避险情绪升温,”中国央行外汇部门——中国外汇交易中心(CFETS)发布的一份新闻稿称。广州英语翻译公司。

 

CFETS also announced that foreign banks would from August 15 have to set aside 20 per cent of renminbi forward settlements as reserves.

中国外汇交易中心还宣布,自815日起,银行间外汇市场的境外金融机构在境外与其客户开展远期卖汇业务产生的头寸在银行间外汇市场平盘后,应按月对其上一月平盘额交纳20%的外汇风险准备金。

 

Brexit is seen by some FX analysts as a risk to China if UK economic risks start to affect the eurozone. Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that the renminbi had fallen 1.1 per cent against the dollar since the referendum.

一些外汇分析师认为,英国退欧对中国构成一个风险,尤其是在英国经济风险开始影响欧元区的情况下。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)指出,自英国举行退欧公投以来,人民币兑美元汇率已累计下降1.1%。广州英语翻译公司。

 

Even though this has occurred largely in calm waters, the foreign exchange market remains susceptible to jitters, and capital outflows could reaccelerate,” said BofA.

“尽管这基本上是在平静局面下发生的,但外汇市场仍然容易受到恐慌的影响,资本外流可能重新加速,”美银表示。

 

The risk of the renminbi overshooting its year-end forecast of Rmb6.60-6.70 “is substantial if the recent dollar strength continues”.

“如果近期美元强势持续下去”,人民币汇率跌破该行预测的1美元兑6.60-6.70元人民币年底水平的风险“较大”。

 

Traders are focusing on the upcoming publication of China’s latest foreign exchange reserves level for signs of capital flight.

交易员们将聚焦于即将发布的中国最新外汇储备水平,看有没有资本外流的迹象。广州英语翻译公司。

 

Citigroup said renminbi weakness suggested that, once again “capital outflow pressure hasn’t entirely ceased and it has possibly intensified over the past month”, and will be tested by the foreign exchange reserves data.

花旗集团(Citigroup)表示,人民币弱势似乎表明,“资本外流的压力并没有完全停止,在过去一个月可能加剧了”,而且将受到外汇储备数据的检验。

 

The risk of increased capital flight from China had become “a background concern to markets”, said Kit Juckes, foreign exchange strategist at Société Générale, “but, were it to materialise, that would place additional pressure on Asian and China-sensitive currencies”.

法国兴业银行(Société Générale)外汇策略师基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)表示,中国资本外流加剧的风险已成为“市场的一个背景担忧,但如果它成为现实,那将给亚洲和那些对中国敏感的货币带来额外压力”。

 

David Rees at Capital Economics said the PBoC would not want a re-run of market turmoil triggered by renminbi falls this year.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的戴维•里斯(David Rees)表示,中国央行不会希望人民币贬值引发市场动荡的情况今年重演。

 

But further weakness in trade-weighted terms could spook investors, particularly if the US dollar continues to appreciate against the renminbi,” he said.

“但是人民币在贸易加权基础上进一步走低可能会惊吓投资者,尤其是在美元对人民币持续升值的情况下,”他说。

 

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