How Europe should respond to Brexit
欧盟应对英国脱欧的良策
广州翻译公司： 沃尔夫：英国脱欧是一大挑战，但欧盟的首要任务应是拟定一项切实可行的计划，让各成员国共同实现经济增长。
In October 1996, as the launch of the euro came closer, I argued that: “The choice looming for the UK is between being inside the European Monetary Union and being outside . . . It will become a choice between having a voice within the governing arrangements of Europe and not having one. In time, it will be between being inside the EU and being outside it.”
1996年10月，当欧元启动之日越来越近的时候，我曾经说：“即将摆在英国面前的选择是加不加入欧洲货币联盟……这将变成是否在欧洲治理安排中拥有一个话语权的选择，到最后更将变成是留在欧盟之内还是退出欧盟之外的选择。”广州翻译公司。
I concluded, for this reason, that the UK should consider joining. Shortly thereafter I changed my mind, arguing that the UK could not thrive inside it. Subsequent events have confirmed this judgment. But my earlier concern has also been vindicated.
出于这个原因，我认为英国应该考虑加入欧洲货币联盟。不久以后，我改变了想法，认为英国在这个货币联盟内不会兴旺发展。后来的事情印证了这一判断。然而我更早提出的担忧也被证实了。
The UK has long been semi-detached and is now well on its way to becoming fully detached. The pending divorce poses a huge challenge for the UK. But it also brings challenges for the EU. To thrive, perhaps even to survive, it must change. The UK’s departure is a threat but also perhaps an opportunity.
长期以来英国一直与欧盟若即若离，如今更是走上了与后者彻底分离的道路。这场即将发生的“离婚”给英国带来了巨大挑战，同样也给欧盟带来了挑战。欧盟想要兴旺发展，甚至只是为了维持生存，都必须改变。英国离开既是威胁，但或许也是机遇。广州翻译公司。
This is not to argue that divorce was predestined. Ending up where we are now was the result of a series of accidents including, not least, the amazing incompetence of David Cameron, the outgoing prime minister. If just 2 per cent of those who voted Leave had voted Remain, the latter would have won. If Mr Cameron had not won the last general election, the referendum would not have happened. If David Miliband had been leader of the opposition Labour party, Mr Cameron would probably not have won the election. One could go on. Nevertheless, the UK’s disenchantment with the EU project and lack of belief in its existential purpose always made this sad outcome possible.
这并不是说这场离婚是早就注定的。走到现在这一步是一系列事件导致的，尤其是戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)这位即将离职的首相那种惊人的无能。即便投票支持脱欧的选民中只有2%的人改投留欧，留欧派也会获胜。如果卡梅伦没有赢得上一次大选，公投就不会发生。如果戴维•米利班德(David Miliband)是反对党工党(Labour Party)领导人，卡梅伦也许就不会赢得那次大选。人们可以接着假设下去。然而，英国对欧盟一体化计划的幻灭、对欧盟存在的目的缺乏信任，始终为这一可悲的结果创造了可能。
Brexit might still not happen. The referendum is, after all, purely advisory. It does not bind parliament and, what is more, parliament cannot bind its successors. Furthermore, the referendum result merely specified that the UK should leave the EU. It did not indicate what Leave meant. As choices become clearer to the public, the latter might be subject to a severe fit of buyers’ remorse. Another referendum is not inconceivable but it is very unlikely. The political costs of ignoring, or seeking to overturn, the result exceed those of acceptance. Even if that did not have to be so, all the candidates to replace Mr Cameron believe it. The UK is leaving. That has to be the assumption of its EU partners, particularly if free movement of people remains an inviolable principle. So how should the rest of the bloc respond?
英国脱欧仍然有可能不会发生。毕竟，公投纯粹是建议性质的。它对议会没有约束力，而且议会也不能约束下一届议会。此外，公投结果只是表明了英国应该离开欧盟，并未阐明离开的具体含义。随着公众越来越清楚他们所面临的选择，他们也许会产生严重的“买家懊悔”情绪。再举行一次公投并非不可想象，不过可能性极低。无视或寻求推翻这次公投结果的政治代价，将超过接受它的代价。即便事实不一定是这样，所有有意接替卡梅伦的候选人都会这么认为。英国正在离开。其在欧盟的伙伴国必须抱着这种想法，尤其是如果它们仍把人员自由流动作为不可侵犯的原则的话。那么，欧盟其他国家应该如何应对这一局面？广州翻译公司。
The UK’s almost certain departure is a threat to the EU on two dimensions.
英国离开几乎是确定无疑的，这从两个方面对欧盟造成威胁。
First, the UK is a neighbour, a market, a financial centre, a security partner and a link to the wider world. It is in the EU’s interest to achieve a mutually satisfactory relationship, however infuriating the UK must be. This argues for the pragmatic position taken by Alain Juppé, frontrunner in the race for the French centre-right presidential nomination. He even suggests that restrictions on free movement of people should be negotiable. If so, that would surely have obviated Brexit.
首先，英国对欧盟来说是一个邻居、一个市场、一个金融中心、一个安全伙伴以及与更广阔世界联系的纽带。不论英国有多令人恼火，建立令双方都满意的关系符合欧盟利益。对法国中右翼总统候选人提名竞争中的领跑者阿兰•朱佩(Alain Juppé)来说，这一点为他的务实立场提供了理由。他甚至还建议，对人员自由流动的限制是可以协商的。如果是这样，英国脱欧就显得没有必要了。
Second, Brexit is a precedent. The first country to leave the EU is, inevitably, an example to those that wish to follow suit and a warning to those who oppose it. It is natural for the latter to seek to undermine the appeal of the former by punishing the UK. I sympathise. The question they must ask themselves, however, is whether the best way to preserve the EU is to make it a prison, rather than a desirable place of refuge. This is not to argue for indulgence. But it is to argue against vindictiveness.
其次，英国脱欧将树立一个先例。第一个脱离欧盟的国家，势必会成为希望效仿的国家的样板，同时也是对反对脱欧的国家发出的一个警告。对于后者来说，寻求通过惩罚英国来削弱前者的吸引力是件很自然的事。对此我十分理解。不过，他们必须问自己一个问题，把欧盟变成牢笼而不是人们想去的庇护所，是不是保护欧盟的最好办法。这么说并不是支持采取纵容态度，而是不赞成报复。广州翻译公司。
Yes, it is understandable that the EU establishment wishes to reduce the appeal of populists. But the best way to do so must be to give Europeans the security and prosperity they seek. One of the reasons so many in the UK wanted to leave is that the EU is no longer seen to deliver on these promises. That has not just been a difficulty in the UK. It is a difficulty throughout the bloc.
没错，可以理解欧盟当权派希望削弱民粹主义者的吸引力。然而要做到这一点的最好办法，必然是为欧洲带来民众所寻求的安全与繁荣。英国这么多人想脱离欧盟的原因之一，是欧盟不再被认为会兑现上述承诺。这不仅仅是欧盟在英国面临的困境，也是它在整个地区面临的困境。
Thus the core challenge for the EU is to make it work — and be seen to work — for the benefit of the great majority of its citizens. As Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, argues: “The spectre of a break-up is haunting Europe and a vision of a federation doesn’t seem to me to be the best answer to it.” This is sensible. The failure of the EU lies not in its political structures but in its policies. It must secure legitimacy via practical achievements rather than further erosion of national autonomy.
因此，欧盟的核心挑战，是要致力于造福其境内的绝大多数公民——并且让人们看到这种努力。正如欧洲理事会(European Council)主席唐纳德•图斯克(Donald Tusk)所说：“解体的幽灵正在欧洲徘徊，然而在我看来，建立联邦的构想并不是最好的对策。”这种说法是明智的。欧盟的失败不在于政治架构，而在于其政策。它必须通过取得切实的成就、而不是通过进一步削弱国家自治权来获得合法性。广州翻译公司。
The paramount example of recent failure lies inside the eurozone. That has nothing to do with the UK. The sad truth is that, far from launching a period of prosperity, the euro has delivered a lengthy period of stagnation and massive divergences in living standards. Between the first quarters of 2008 and 2016, aggregate eurozone real gross domestic product rose by a mere 0.5 per cent, while real aggregate demand fell by 2.4 per cent. This is grim enough. Even worse, between 2007 and 2016, real GDP per head is forecast to rise 11 per cent in Germany, stagnate in France and fall by 8 per cent and 11 per cent in Spain and Italy respectively.
就最近来说，欧盟最失败的例子发生在欧元区内。这与英国毫无关系。一个令人悲哀的事实是，启用欧元非但没有带来一段繁荣期，还开启了一段经济停滞与生活水准大分化的漫长时期。从2008年第一季度到2016年第一季度，欧元区总体实际国内生产总值(GDP)仅仅上升了0.5%，而实际总需求下降了2.4%。这一数据本已足够让人沮丧了。更糟糕的是，从2007年到2016年，德国人均实际GDP预计上升11%，法国没有增长，西班牙和意大利则分别下滑8%和11%。
These dire outcomes are no accident. They are the product of a misdiagnosis of the crisis as mainly fiscal, of asymmetrical macroeconomic adjustment, and of obscurantist opposition to fiscal stimulus, even at a time of negative real interest rates on long-term borrowing. Germany has done well out of the euro. Its principal partners have not. This divergence poses a big threat. No effective plan exists to end it. (See charts.)
出现上述糟糕结果并非偶然，而是有着多层原因：误判危机主要发生在财政层面、不对称的宏观经济调整，以及即使长期贷款的实际利率为负，蒙昧主义者依然反对实施财政刺激。德国受益于欧元，它的主要伙伴国家却并非如此。这样的分化带来了巨大的威胁。目前没有任何切实有效的计划来终止这种局面。广州翻译公司。
The EU is unlikely to gain the legitimacy that comes from democratic accountability: it is too big and diverse for that. The best route to legitimacy consists, instead, of managing the practical challenges it confronts. Dealing with migration is an extremely important and difficult practical challenge. But making the eurozone prosperous is indispensable. Brexit is a nuisance. The priority is a practical plan for widely shared economic growth.
欧盟不太可能获得源于民主问责制的合法性：欧盟太大、太过多元化，没办法做到这一点。相反，欧盟获得合法性的最佳途径是应对它所面临的实际挑战。应对难民问题是一个极端重要而困难的实际挑战。而推动欧元区繁荣则是必需的。英国脱欧让人伤脑筋。但是欧盟的首要任务，应该是拟定一项切实可行的计划，以使各成员国共同实现经济增长。
