广州翻译公司： Brexit leaves Europe at a fork in the road
英国退欧将欧盟推向分岔路口
广州翻译公司：拉赫曼：在英国退欧派心愿达成之际，欧洲则面对一个危险的抉择：是和英国日益对立，还是重新回归和解之路。
More than a decade ago, I had a curious conversation with Nigel Farage in a restaurant in Strasbourg. The outgoing leader of the UK Independence party told me that his hobby was leading tours of the battlefields of the first world war. He said he was sure that, if it came to it, Britain could again summon up the martial spirit that saw it through the Great War.
十多年前，在法国斯特拉斯堡(Strasbourg)的一家餐厅里，我和奈杰尔•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)有过一次奇特的对话。这名眼下即将卸任的英国独立党(UKIP)领袖当时告诉我，他的爱好是带领人们参观一战战场。他说，他很确定，如果战争来临，英国可以再度唤起引领英国走过第一次世界大战(Great War)的崇武精神。广州翻译公司。
I thought of that conversation last week as Mr Farage celebrated Britain’s decision to leave the EU, and Europe commemorated the centenary of the Battle of the Somme. Mr Farage, it seems to me, is exactly the kind of person the war poet Wilfred Owen had in mind when he warned against those who told war stories to “children ardent for some desperate glory”.
上周，在法拉奇庆祝英国退出欧盟(EU)的决定，欧洲纪念索姆河战役(Battle of the Somme)100周年的时候，我想起了那次对话。在我看来，战争诗人威尔弗雷德•欧文(Wilfred Owen)告诫人们警惕那些“向渴望某种不顾一切的荣耀的孩童”讲述战争故事的人时，他心里想的就是法拉奇那种人。
At this moment of triumph for the political ideals of Mr Farage, it is important to realise that this is a dangerous moment for Europe. We are faced with a choice between two paths. The first leads to reconciliation between the UK and the EU. The second leads to an increasingly confrontational relationship between Britain and continental Europe.
在法拉奇的政治理想胜利实现之际，意识到现在对于欧洲是一个危险的时刻很重要。我们面临着两条道路的选择。第一条通向英国和欧盟的和解。第二条通向英国和欧洲大陆日益对立的关系。广州翻译公司。
If the political mood calms on both sides of the Channel, the path to reconciliation is still the easiest route for both sides. However, it is important to realise that there are also strong forces that could easily push Britain and the EU down the path towards a dangerous antagonism.
如果英吉利海峡两边的政治情绪平静下来，和解对双方来说依然是最容易走的一条路。然而，重要的是要意识到，也存在多种强大的因素，能够轻易将英国和欧盟推上危险的对立之路。
The emotional impact of the Brexit vote should not be underestimated. Many Europeans see it as an act of repudiation by the arrogant Brits — and would enjoy seeing the UK learn a painful lesson. British voters who fail to understand this emotion might consider how frostily the English would have responded if Scotland had voted for independence in 2014.
英国投票选择退欧带来的情感冲击不应被低估。许多欧洲人认为这是傲慢的英国人与欧洲断绝关系的行为——他们会很乐于看到英国得到一个惨烈的教训。不理解这种情感的英国选民可以想一想，如果苏格兰在2014年独立公投中决定独立，英国人的反应会有多冷淡。广州翻译公司。
There are also practical and political reasons why the EU is likely to drive a very hard bargain. Many governments in Europe will hope that Britain’s folly can be turned to their advantage — and are now actively seeking to attract jobs from the UK.
也存在现实原因和政治原因，导致欧盟可能会在谈判中为难英国。欧洲的许多政府希望能够将英国愚蠢的行为转化为它们的优势，现在正在积极地寻求从英国吸走就业。
Several European governments also face strong domestic challenges from anti-EU parties. François Hollande of France, who faces a presidential election next year, confronts a powerful challenge from the far-right National Front — which is demanding a referendum on French membership of the EU; and the Dutch government is under similar pressure to agree to an EU referendum. So it is in their political interests that post-Brexit Britain should be seen to suffer.
欧洲有几个政府也面临着国内反欧盟团体的强劲挑战。法国的弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)明年将迎来总统大选，他面临来自法国极右翼政党国民阵线(National Front)的强劲挑战——国民阵线正在要求法国就欧盟成员国身份举行公投；荷兰政府也面临着类似压力，要求它批准就欧盟问题举行公投。因此，让退欧后的英国吃到苦头符合这些政府的政治利益。广州翻译公司。
The EU institutions in Brussels, which will guide the negotiating process, also have an interest in making things difficult for Britain to discourage any other EU nations from going down the same path.
刁难英国以防其他任何欧盟国家走上同一条道路，对负责引导协商过程的布鲁塞尔的欧盟机构也有好处。
The European Commission’s current position is that the two years of negotiation, starting after Britain gives formal notice of its decision to leave the EU, must be devoted solely to negotiating the technical terms of the divorce: details such as who pays the pensions of British EU officials. The commission insists that only after Britain leaves the EU can the two sides sit down to negotiate a new trade deal. Such an arrangement would obviously put the UK at a massive disadvantage.
欧盟委员会(European Commission)目前的立场是，从英国正式通告退欧决定之日算起的为期两年的协商，必须完全专注于讨论双方分道扬镳的具体安排：比如谁为英国的欧盟官员支付养老金这样的细节。欧盟委员会坚持，只有当英国离开欧盟以后，双方才能坐下来协商一项新的贸易协定。这样的安排显然会让英国处于极为不利的位置。广州翻译公司。
As it dawns on the British that the EU genuinely intends to play hardball, so the UK’s calculations are likely to change. Initial hopes of a good deal could give way to panic and then to bitterness and anger.
当英国渐渐明白欧盟是真心打算来硬的，英国的盘算也可能会改变。最初达成一项良好协定的希望可能会被恐慌取代，之后则是苦涩和愤懑。
A sensible and unemotional British government would scale back its ambitions and prepare the ground for a tactical retreat. However, a UK government run by Leavers — and spurred on by the anti-European press — might opt for a very different path. Faced with a united and unfriendly EU position, the British would start looking to break down European unity — and might even begin to regard the ultimate break-up of the EU as in the UK’s interests. This could lead the British into seeking out some pretty unsavoury allies in Europe — such as the Freedom parties in the Netherlands and Austria, the Alternative for Germany party and even France’s NF.
英国政府如果明智和冷静，就会收起自己的雄心壮志，为战略撤退做好准备。然而，一个由退欧人士掌管的英国政府（在反欧盟媒体的推动下）可能会选择一条截然不同的道路。面对欧盟统一的不友好立场，英国可能会开始寻求打破欧洲的统一，甚至可能开始认为欧盟的最终解体符合英国的利益。这可能会导致英国开始在欧洲寻求一些名声相当不好的盟友——比如荷兰自由党(Freedom party)和奥地利自由党、德国新选择党(Alternative für Deutschland)，甚至法国的国民阵线。广州翻译公司。
On the economic front, if the British found themselves outside the EU’s internal market and facing tariffs, they would also have to consider some radical alternatives. The obvious choice would be to adopt an offshore-island strategy — George Osborne, the chancellor, has already announced plans to slash taxes on business to attract foreign investment. Freed from the constraints of the EU’s rules on state aid, the British might also look to adopt a much more active industrial policy.
在经济方面，如果英国人发现自己被欧盟的内部市场挡在门外，面临着关税，他们可能也会考虑一些激进的替代选择。一个显而易见的选择是采取离岸岛国策略——财相乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)已经宣布削减企业税以吸引外国投资的计划。摆脱欧盟限制国家援助的规定约束后，英国也可能会考虑采取积极得多的产业政策。
Many of these actions would be regarded as unfriendly acts in Brussels — and so the cycle of antagonism between the EU and the UK would increase. European leaders have always insisted that the EU is a “peace project” — designed to prevent future battles like the Somme. The current thinking in Brussels seems to be that the survival of the EU and its peace project makes it unthinkable to make new “concessions” to keep Britain inside the club.
这些行动中的许多将被欧盟视为不友好的行为，因此欧盟和英国之间的关系会陷入日益对立的恶性循环。欧洲的领袖们一直坚持，欧盟是一个“和平项目”——旨在防止索姆河战役这样的事件在未来重演。目前布鲁塞尔方面的心态似乎是，欧盟及其和平项目的存亡问题，让它无法想象可以做出新的“让步”，把英国留在自己人的圈子里。广州翻译公司。
But EU leaders should rethink — and realise that the bigger danger lies in allowing divisions and antagonism to once again poison the relations between Europe’s largest powers. The Leave campaigners in Britain also urgently need to temper their euphoria with an understanding of the dangers of the process that they have unleashed.
但欧盟领袖应该重新思考一下当前的局势。他们应该意识到，放任分裂和对立再度毒害欧洲大国间关系是更加危险的事情。英国的退欧活动人士也迫切需要理解他们引发的进程带来了哪些危险，让兴奋的心情平复下来。
