Commodities: Noble’s House of woe
FT大视野：来宝的大宗商品之痛
财务证券翻译公司：来宝集团的衰落不仅和大宗商品繁荣终结有关，来宝员工称，公司问题始于被中投收购股份后所制定的扩张计划。
Richard Elman has always dreamt big. The British-born scrapyard dealer-turned-billionaire commodity trader and founder of Noble Group spent more than a decade riding the wave of China’s growth. In April 2011 he promised investors there was more to come.
艾礼文(Richard Elman)总是胸怀大志。这位出生于英国的大宗商品交易员最初是一名废品经销商，后来成为亿万富翁，并创立了来宝集团(Noble Group)，10多年来借助中国经济增长做大。2011年4月，他曾向投资者承诺，还会有更多的机遇。财务证券翻译公司。
“We are in a position to be the best in the world,” he told shareholders in the Noble annual report as he boasted of record profits. “And among the biggest.”
他在来宝的年报中向股东表示：“我们将会成为全球最棒的公司，”他宣称公司利润创新高，“业内最大的公司之一”。
He had every reason to be confident. China Investment Corp, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, held a big stake in the company; Noble was expanding across the globe; and its market capitalisation had just topped $14bn.
那时他完全有理由信心十足。中国主权财富基金——中投公司(CIC)持有该公司大量股份；来宝正在全球扩张；其市值刚刚突破140亿美元。财务证券翻译公司。
But few fully understood at the time that a tight-knit group of executives had embarked on a course that would leave Noble on its knees.
但当时很少有人完全明白，一个高管小圈子开启了将会让来宝陷入困境的进程。
Today the market value of the company — which is listed in Singapore — has collapsed to $1.1bn, its chief executive has left, and Mr Elman, 76, has announced he will step down as executive chairman in the next 12 months. In February, it reported annual losses for the first time in more than 20 years after taking $1.2bn in writedowns and charges, largely related to the value of long-term contracts it has been accused of overstating by short sellers, hedge funds and a former employee turned financial blogger.
如今，在新加坡上市的来宝市值暴跌至11亿美元，其首席执行官离职，而76岁的艾礼文宣布将会在今后12个月辞去执行主席的职务。今年2月，在计提了12亿美元的减值和费用之后——这在很大程度上与做空者、对冲基金以及曾是前雇员的一个财经博主指控该公司夸大长期合同价值有关——来宝报告出现20多年来首次年度亏损。
Noble, which acts as a middleman for oil, coal, iron ore and metals deals, is now tapping its shareholders for $500m of cash and trying to sell prized assets in its efforts to pay down debt and free up capital for its trading operations.
来宝是一家石油、煤炭、铁矿石和金属贸易经纪商，现在正在通过增发股份来筹集5亿美元现金，并试图出售宝贵资产以偿还债务和释放资本用于贸易业务。财务证券翻译公司。
A taste for sugar
对糖产生兴趣
Founded by Mr Elman 30 years ago with $100,000 capital, Noble rose to become one of Asia’s biggest commodity traders, helping meet China’s seemingly insatiable appetite for raw materials. At one point it was among the top 100 companies in the world in terms of revenue. Its rivals included Glencore, Vitol and Trafigura, companies that together ship almost 14m barrels of oil per day.
艾礼文30年前用10万美元资本创办的来宝，如今已成为亚洲最大的大宗商品贸易商之一，帮助满足了中国对原材料似乎难以餍足的需求。就收入来说，来宝一度进入全球100强企业之列。其竞争对手包括嘉能可(Glencore)、维多(Vitol)和托克(Trafigura)，这些公司每天发运的石油总计接近1400万桶。
As commodity prices crashed the company went from a highly regarded member of Singapore’s stock exchange, with operations stretching from Brazil to Indonesia, to losing its blue-chip status and struggling to retain the confidence of lenders and counterparties.
随着大宗商品价格暴跌，来宝从新加坡交易所备受重视的会员——业务范围从巴西到印尼等世界各地——沦落到失去蓝筹股地位，而且很难保持银行和交易对手方的信心。财务证券翻译公司。
The unravelling of the company, named after James Clavell’s Noble House, a novel about an intrigue-riven Hong Kong trading group, is not just another tale of a high-flyer brought low by the end of the China-led commodity boom. It is also a story about how the use of legal accounting techniques can paint a potentially confusing picture of a company’s financial health.
来宝的名字来自詹姆斯•克拉维尔(James Clavell)的小说《洋行》(Noble House)，这部小说是关于一家充斥着尔虞我诈的香港贸易集团。来宝的衰落不只是关于又一个雄心勃勃的企业家因为中国主导的大宗商品繁荣结束而陷入困境，它还说明，使用合法的会计方法可能描绘出潜在令人困惑的有关公司财务健康状况的画面。
“Noble compounded its problems with aggressive accounting,” says Craig Pirrong, a finance professor at the University of Houston who has written on the industry for Trafigura. “The accounting issues took a big toll on management’s credibility, and that made it very difficult to climb out of the hole.”
休斯顿大学(University of Houston)金融学教授克雷格•皮龙(Craig Pirrong)表示：“来宝激进的会计手法让问题恶化。会计问题对管理层信誉造成了巨大影响，进而让摆脱困境变得非常困难。”
More than a dozen former and current Noble Group employees interviewed by the Financial Times say the company’s problems started with its aggressive expansion plans once CIC bought 14 per cent of Noble in 2009.
接受英国《金融时报》采访的十多位来宝前员工和现员工表示，该公司的问题始于它在2009年被中投收购14%股份后制定的激进扩张计划。财务证券翻译公司。
Brazilian Ricardo Leiman, who joined the company in 2006 from Louis Dreyfus Company, was picked by Mr Elman as a successor who could lead the company’s growth. This would be done through purchasing assets like ports and mills to create what he coined internally a “pipeline of profit”.
2006年，巴西人里卡多•雷曼(Ricardo Leiman)从路易达孚(Louis Dreyfus)加入来宝。他被艾礼文选为可能带领公司发展的继任者。雷曼将通过购买港口和工厂等资产来创造他在内部所称的“利润管道”。
Mr Leiman led the company’s $950m acquisition of two sugar mills in his home country in 2010, making a big bet on growing consumption in Asia. Two months after the purchase sugar hit a 30-year peak, but then abruptly halved over the next 18 months as production swamped the market.
2010年，雷曼带领公司斥资9.5亿美元在巴西收购了两家糖厂，豪赌亚洲的消费将会不断增长。在收购两个月后，糖价创出30年来的最高水平，但在随后18个月里由于市场供应过剩而突然下跌一半。
This deal and others saw Noble becoming increasingly asset heavy and more leveraged. The company’s net debt rose from $2.9bn in 2009 to almost $4.9bn in 2011. Costs also rose. At its peak Noble employed 15,000 people. “Overheads were high,” says a former Noble executive.
该交易和其他交易让来宝背上越来越多的资产，杠杆化程度也更高。2011年，该公司的净债务从2009年的29亿美元上升至近49亿美元。成本也在上升。在峰值时期，来宝雇佣了1.5万名员工。来宝一位前高管表示：“管理费用非常高。”财务证券翻译公司。
Mounting debts and high costs began to weigh on the company as bets in niche markets such as carbon credits backfired. As a listed company, it wanted smoother earnings to keep the stock market happy, former employees say.
随着在碳排放额度等利基市场押注失手，债务累积和高成本开始让来宝承压。前员工表示，作为一家上市公司，来宝希望实现更为平稳的盈利来取悦股市。
Noble did this by recognising upfront a portion of gains from long-term marketing and supply agreements and recording their value on its balance sheet, say ex-employees. This technique, while legal under accounting rules, has seen only limited use among Noble’s rivals who say it is risky because the volatility of commodity prices means the amount of cash eventually received from the deals can be lower than the recorded profits.
前员工称，为此，来宝从一开始就将长期营销和供应协议的一部分收益入账，并将它们的价值计入资产负债表。尽管按照会计规则，这种方法是合法的，但在来宝的竞争对手那里很少用，它们表示，这是有风险的，因为大宗商品价格波动意味着这些协议最终带来的资金可能低于入账利润。
At Noble it became a large part of its shareholder equity. From $36m in 2009, the value of derivative contracts held by Noble and the net fair value of its commodity deals — defined as assets minus liabilities and excluding cash flow hedges — rose to $1.55bn in 2011.
在来宝，这种利润成为股东权益的一大部分。来宝持有的衍生品合约价值以及大宗商品交易的净公允价值（资产减去负债后的价值，不包括现金流对冲）从2009年的3600万美元升至2011年的15.5亿美元。财务证券翻译公司。
Despite this increase, Noble recorded its first quarterly loss in more than a decade in late 2011 — the same day Mr Leiman departed the company. He was replaced by Yusuf Alireza, a polished Goldman Sachs executive.
尽管有这种上升，但来宝在2011年末仍录得十多年来首次季度亏损——就在同一天，雷曼从来宝离职。接替他的是举止优雅的高盛(Goldman Sachs)高管优素福•阿里雷扎(Yusuf Alireza)。
At heart Mr Alireza was a salesman, contemporaries say, but above all he wanted to be in charge of a big company with global reach. During his 14 years at the Wall Street bank, he had helped build its securities business into one of the most powerful in Asia.
同时代人表示，阿里雷扎本质上是一名销售员，但他最希望做的是执掌一家在全球开展业务的大公司。在他在高盛的14年间，他帮助将该公司的证券部门打造成亚洲最有影响力的证券业务之一。
“He wanted to run a big business,” says one former colleague. “That’s why he left Goldman.”
一位前同事表示：“他想经营大公司。这就是他离开高盛的原因。”财务证券翻译公司。
Tip of the iceberg
冰山一角
Having spent his entire career in banking Mr Alireza had to learn about the commodities business including Noble’s use of mark-to-market accounting on its long-term deals which had provided the group with sizeable earnings in the past.
整个职业生涯都在银行业度过的阿里雷扎，不得不学习大宗商品业务，包括来宝对长期协议使用市值计价的会计手法——这种方法过去为来宝带来了巨额盈利。
Under his tenure, they would continue to grow, almost tripling between 2012 and 2014 to $4.6bn. At that time, net fair value gains on contracts and financial derivatives were equivalent to more than 80 per cent of Noble’s equity value. It says part of that growth was related to short-term hedging positions used by its expanding business.
在他担任首席执行官期间，此类盈利继续增长，在2012年至2014年间增长近3倍，至46亿美元。当时，合约和金融衍生品的净公允价值收益占到来宝股权价值的80%以上。该公司表示，这种增长在一定程度上与其不断扩张的业务使用的短期对冲头寸有关。
The company’s problems intensified 18 months ago as the sell-off in commodity prices focused the spotlight on the industry. This was compounded by a former employee, working under the name of Iceberg Research, who published the first in a series of hard-hitting reports on the company.
随着大宗商品价格暴跌让人们将目光投向该行业，来宝的问题在18个月前恶化。一名前雇员以“冰山研究”(Iceberg Research)的名义发表了首份抨击来宝的研报，一连串杀伤力巨大的报告让该公司雪上加霜。财务证券翻译公司。
The research by Arnaud Vagner, who had worked as a credit analyst at Noble but left the company in 2013, highlighted how the company had generated higher net profits between 2010 and 2015 than it generated in cash — often a red flag for investors.
阿瑙德•瓦格纳(Arnaud Vagner)曾经是来宝的一名信贷分析师，但在2013年从公司离职。他的研究突显出该公司在2010年至2015年期间产生的净利润比现金还多——这对投资者来说往往是危险信号。
Iceberg also raised concerns about how Noble accounted for investments in other companies, in particular Yancoal, an Australian mining company, as well as the valuation ascribed to its agricultural business, which Mr Alireza sold to Cofco, the Chinese state grain trader, in two separate deals in 2014 and 2015 as he moved to simplify the business and pay down debt.
“冰山研究”还担忧来宝投资其他公司（尤其是澳大利亚矿业公司Yancoal）的入账方式，以及对其农业业务的估值。为简化业务并偿还债务，阿里雷扎在2014年和2015年通过两笔交易将农业业务出售给中国国有粮食贸易商中粮集团(Cofco)。
Noble initially dismissed Iceberg as the work of a “disgruntled” former employee. That changed once it published its third report in March 2015 with Noble launching legal action alleging conspiracy to injure.
来宝最初指责“冰山研究”的报告只不过是一位“心怀不满的”前雇员炮制而来。但在2015年3月“冰山研究”发表第三份报告后改变了对策，提起法律诉讼，指控该机构恶意中伤。财务证券翻译公司。
“Iceberg are not the independent research house they claim to be,” Noble said at the time. “Their actions, and their timing, have been calculated primarily to inflict damage.”
来宝当时表示：“冰山并不是他们所宣称的独立研究机构。他们的行为及其时机都是为了造成损害。”
Mr Alireza remained largely dismissive of criticism even as the share price started to tumble. He told analysts in early 2015: “Profit is only recognised for the portion of the contract where there is a high level of certainty of execution.” Mr Elman told investors in August last year that unnamed people were “unqualified” to criticise Noble.
即便股价开始暴跌，但阿里雷扎仍基本上对批评不以为然。他在2015年年初向分析师表示：“只有执行确定性高的那部分合同才被记为利润。”艾礼文在去年8月告诉投资者，匿名者“没有资格”批评来宝。
But in an interview with the Financial Times, Iceberg claimed its reports were the result of detailed analysis. “It was a laborious job to go through all the financial documents published by Noble over a five-year period and create a comprehensive financial model,” says Iceberg.
但“冰山研究”在接受英国《金融时报》采访时宣称，其研报是仔细分析的结果。它表示：“消化来宝在5年期间发布的所有财务报表，然后创建一个全面的财务模型，是一件非常辛苦的事情。”财务证券翻译公司。
In February, Noble recognised $1.2bn of impairments and exceptional items, largely from coal contracts after deciding to use a lower external forecast for long-term prices. It formed part of a $1.7bn loss, the equivalent of wiping out the previous five years’ profits.
今年2月，来宝计提了12亿美元的减值和特殊项目，很大程度上来自煤炭合约，此前该公司决定对长期价格使用较低的外部预测。这构成了17亿美元亏损的一部分，相当于抹掉了前五年的利润。
Noble has always defended its financial reporting and executives say it had to use mark-to-market accounting because of the way its contracts were structured. Last year it commissioned PwC to carry out an independent report. It found Noble’s treatment of the contracts met international accounting standards, though it made no statement on their value. The company also points out that coal and oil prices have rebounded since February.
来宝始终为其会计手法辩护，高管们表示，合约结构意味着该公司不得不使用市值计价。去年，来宝委托普华永道(PwC)展开独立研究。研究发现，来宝处理这些合约的方式符合国际会计标准，尽管它没有就其价值发表声明。来宝还指出，自今年2月以来煤炭和石油价格有所反弹。
Shortly after Noble announced the impairments Mr Elman told shareholders that talk from critics was “cheap” and coming up with strategies should be left to the ones “who have their boots on [the] ground”. Invoking Sir Winston Churchill, a former UK prime minister, Mr Elman said he had nothing to offer but “blood, toil, tears and sweat.”
来宝宣布减值之后不久，艾礼文向股东们表示，批评者的议论是“廉价的”，而战略应该由那些“深入第一线”的人制定。艾礼文借用英国前首相温斯顿•丘吉尔(Winston Churchill)的话说，他没什么可以奉献的，“有的只是热血、辛劳、眼泪和汗水”。财务证券翻译公司。
What Noble really needed, however, was cash. Billions of dollars of credit lines were set to expire in May 2016 and the market was nervous. Cheap credit is the lifeblood of commodity trading, an industry where margins are razor thin.
然而，来宝真正需要的是现金。数十亿美元信贷额度将于2016年5月失效，市场对此感到不安。廉价信贷是大宗商品交易的命脉——该行业的利润率非常微薄。
Mr Alireza remained calm, saying Noble had a provisional agreement with its main lenders and would “move quickly” to close the refinancing. But discussions dragged on. Noble was eventually forced to reduce the amount of credit it was seeking by $500m to $3bn, money it desperately needed to finance its trading. The cost of its credit also rose sharply.
阿里雷扎保持平静，称来宝与其主要放贷机构签署了临时协议，将会“迅速行动起来”完成再融资。但相关讨论出现拖延。来宝最终被迫将寻求的信贷额度削减5亿美元，至30亿美元——它迫切需要资金为其贸易活动融资。其信贷成本也急剧上升。
After first-quarter results showed that Noble had suffered a $1.5bn “reduction in the availability of bank lines”, senior traders and Noble executives started to push for more decisive action, according to sources. Mr Alireza dug his heels in fearing further asset sales would leave the company a shadow of its former self.
消息人士称，在第一季度财报显示来宝“可获得银行信贷额度”削减15亿美元之后，资深交易员和来宝高管开始推动更具决定性的举措。阿里雷扎坚持不肯妥协，担心进一步的资产出售将让公司失去当年的荣耀。财务证券翻译公司。
He insisted that Noble Americas Energy Solutions, a San Diego-based business bought in 2010, was declared “core” despite estimates it could bring in more than $1bn.
他坚称，2010年收购的圣迭戈业务Noble Americas Energy Solutions (NAES)已被宣布为“核心业务”，尽管估计它可能卖得逾10亿美元。
“There was a personal reluctance to downsize the business,” says a former colleague of Mr Alireza.
阿里雷扎的一位前同事表示：“个人层面存在不愿缩减业务的情绪。”
Less than three weeks later, Noble accepted the resignation of Mr Alireza, who declined to comment for this article, and put NAES up for sale, predicting it could fetch more than $1bn.
不到3个星期之后，来宝接受了阿里雷扎的辞职，并将NAES挂牌出售，预计可能回笼逾10亿美元。阿里雷扎拒绝就本文置评。财务证券翻译公司。
The company named William Randall, founder of its coal business, and Jeff Frase, a former chief oil trader at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan who had grown Noble’s oil business since 2013, as its co-chief executives. A few days later Noble launched a rights issue to raise $500m and Mr Elman said he wanted to step down within a year.
来宝任命其煤炭业务创始人威廉•兰达尔(William Randall)以及高盛和摩根大通(JPMorgan)的前首席石油交易员杰夫•弗雷泽(Jeff Frase)担任公司的联合首席执行官——弗雷泽自2013年以来发展壮大了来宝的石油业务。数天后，来宝宣布增发股份以筹资5亿美元，艾礼文表示，他希望在一年内卸任。
“Something needed to happen,” says one banker involved in the refinancing.
一位参与此次再融资的银行家表示：“有些事需要发生。”
Changes at the top
顶层的改变
With new leadership and moves to raise additional money in place, Noble has bought itself some breathing space.
随着新的领导层上任并采取措施筹到了额外的资金，来宝为自己赢得了一些喘息的空间。财务证券翻译公司。
Executives say the sale of NAES should allow them to repay a $650m loan, maturing next May. The remaining capital would go towards funding its main divisions — oil trading, largely in North America, and coal in Asia.
高管们表示，出售NAES应该会让他们能够偿还明年5月到期的6.5亿美元贷款。剩余资金将为其主要业务提供融资——主要位于北美的石油贸易，以及亚洲的煤炭贸易。
Rating agencies still have concerns. Standard & Poor’s yesterday downgraded Noble’s debt further, into junk territory, citing its need to refinance $3bn of credit lines next year.
评级机构仍有担忧。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)最近将来宝债务评级进一步下调至垃圾级别，指出它明年需要再融资30亿美元信贷额度。
These are the challenges facing Mr Randall and Mr Frase as they try to restore confidence and lift Noble’s share price, which has fallen from a high of S$2.30 in early 2011 to just S$0.23 today.
这些是兰德尔和弗雷泽面临的挑战，他们努力恢复信心，提升来宝的股价——来宝股价从2011年初的2.30新元的峰值跌至如今的0.23新元。
As for Mr Elman, his presence is likely to be felt in the group’s Hong Kong headquarters for some time to come. After he steps down as chairman, the septuagenarian founder, is expected to remain on the board with a significant shareholding of more than 10 per cent, even after it is diluted in the rights issue.
就艾礼文来说，在今后一段时间内该集团的香港总部可能感受到他的存在。在辞去董事长职务之后，这位70多岁的创始人预计将会留在董事会，并持有逾10%的可观股份，即便在增股之后该持股有所稀释。财务证券翻译公司。
Despite his advancing years he told staff in a recent email that he planned to be around for “the next 50 years”.
尽管年事已高，但艾礼文在最近的一封邮件里向员工们表示，他计划“再干50年”。
“Trust me,” the email said. “You won’t get rid of me that easily.”
他在邮件里说：“相信我，你们不会那么容易赶我走的。”
