The riddles of the Chinese economy
中国面临改革与增长的艰难平衡
广州翻译公司：姚洋：今年一季度，中国经济显现好转迹象，政府刺激举措似乎开始对实体经济产生影响。然而，中国国内对此的反应却十分复杂。
China’s economy showed signs of improvement in the first quarter. The indications are that Beijing’s fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have begun to make an impact on the real economy — but the reaction within the country to what appears to be good news has been mixed.
今年第一季度，中国经济显示了好转迹象。有迹象显示，中国政府的财政和货币刺激举措已开始对实体经济产生影响。然而，对于这个似乎是好消息的情况，中国国内的反应却一直十分复杂。广州翻译公司。
The real estate sector began to grow again; prices of steel, aluminium and coal increased substantially despite a negative producer price index ; and the consumer price index rose to more than 2 per cent.
房地产业再次开始增长。尽管生产者价格指数(PPI)下降，钢铁、铝和煤炭价格却已大幅上涨。而消费者价格指数(CPI)的涨幅则升至2%以上。
However, while some economists believe stimulus is necessary to restore China’s growth to its potential rates, many more worry that the government is reverting to its old growth model of investment and credit expansion. On May 8, the People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist party’s official newspaper, published a rare interview with an “authoritative person” who expressed strong views about the Chinese economy. His most provocative opinion is that China’s economic growth is not going to have a V-shape or U-shape recovery, but instead will experience an L-curve. That is, he predicts that China will have a low growth rate for the time being. Consistent with this, he strongly opposes using fiscal and monetary measures to stimulate growth and puts paramount importance on structural reform.
不过，尽管部分经济学家相信，要想让中国恢复其潜在增长速度，就必须采取刺激政策，更多经济学家却担心，中国政府正在重返用投资和信贷扩张来驱动增长的老路。今年5月8日，中共党报《人民日报》(People's Daily)曾发表对一位“权威人士”的罕见访谈。这位“权威人士”对中国经济表达了旗帜鲜明的意见。他最具争议性的观点是，中国经济运行不可能是U型，更不可能是V型，而是L型的走势。也就是说，他预计中国眼下的低增速将持续下去。与这种看法相一致的是，他强烈反对通过财政和货币政策刺激增长，并认为结构性改革至关重要。广州翻译公司。
The opinions of the “authoritative person” sent mixed signals to the market. People believe that his view represents the party’s reading of the Chinese economy. And because this contradicts what the government did in the first quarter with its stimulus measures the market is confused over the intentions of the government.
“权威人士”的观点向市场传递了喜忧掺半的信号。人们相信他的看法代表着中共对中国经济的解读。而由于上述表态与中国政府在今年第一季度的刺激性举措相冲突，市场对于中国政府的意图感到困惑。
Some of the worries of the “authoritative person” are well founded. The growth rate of private investment is declining; investment expansion has been mainly carried out by local governments; debt has increased at a fast pace; and the money supply was increased by Rmb8.61tn in the first quarter. It seems that the Chinese economy is moving back to the old growth model that heavily relied on local governments’ debt-financed fiscal expansion.
“权威人士”的部分担忧有充分理由。民间投资的增长速度正在下滑；投资增长一直主要靠地方政府投资拉动；债务增长十分迅速；一季度货币供应增加了8.61万亿元人民币。看起来似乎中国经济正在重返旧的增长模式——这一模式严重依赖于地方政府通过举债融资的财政扩张。广州翻译公司。
That assessment, however, has to be weighed against the real state of the country’s economy. Behind the argument of the “authoritative person” is the belief that the economy is experiencing a permanent structural shift from phenomenal double-digit growth to a new normal of single-digit growth. While the majority of Chinese economists accept the notion of a new normal, the question remains of where the growth rate will settle in that world.
然而，这一评价必须放到中国经济的实际情况中加以考量。“权威人士”的主张背后，是这样一种观点：中国经济正在经历永久性结构转型，从现象级的两位数增长转向一位数增长的新常态。尽管中国绝大多数经济学家接受了新常态的提法，对于这种新常态下增长率将停留在什么水平却依然存在疑问。
Matters are also complicated by business cycles. For most Chinese economists, the country’s potential growth rates remain in the range of 6.5 to 7 per cent for the coming years. While the official figure for 2015 was 6.9 per cent, many people have doubts about this. The real growth rate was almost certainly lower than that. The economy is in a period of recession, albeit with Chinese characteristics — that is, deflation but still positive growth rates. So a blind rejection of the government’s fiscal and monetary expansion in the first quarter cannot be justified.
而商业周期也加剧了局势的复杂性。在多数中国经济学家看来，未来数年，中国的潜在增长速度仍然在6.5%到7%之间。尽管2015年的官方数字是6.9%，许多人都对这一数字持怀疑态度。真实的增长率几乎可以肯定低于这个数。中国经济正处于衰退期——尽管是中国特色的衰退，即通货紧缩的同时增长率却仍然为正。因此，盲目否定一季度中国政府的财政和货币扩张政策并不合理。广州翻译公司。
The problems identified by the “authoritative person” are more related to China’s long-term structural problems of local governance and public finance. Local governments are still major players in the market, but their behaviour is not is not fully bound by market principles; nor are they fully accountable to their constituency. Relying on local government financial platforms to raise debt in the market, they can circumvent the monitoring of the local people’s congress.
“权威人士”发现的问题，更多地与中国地方政府和公共融资的长期结构性问题有关。中国地方政府仍是市场的主要参与者，然而它们的行为却不完全由市场规律决定；它们也不是完全对选民负责——通过依靠地方政府融资平台在市场上发债，它们能规避地方人大的监督。
On the fiscal side, there is a mismatch between the government’s role of providing infrastructure and its means to raise money. Much of local governments’ debt has gone to infrastructural building. But this has low rates of return. In many cases, its value cannot be fully justified by economic returns; its social returns have to be taken into consideration. As a result, market finance is inadequate and fiscal debt has to be used. However, local governments are not entitled to issue debt on their own although the revised Budget Law now allows them to run deficits.
在财政政策方面，中国政府提供基础设施的角色和其筹集资金的手段之间，存在着不匹配。中国地方政府债务的很大一部分流向了基建。然而这部分资金的回报率却很低。在许多情况下，这些投资的价值并不能完全用经济上的回报衡量，其社会效益也得考虑在内。因此，市场融资显得力不从心，不得不动用财政债务手段。然而，地方政府却无权自行发行债券——尽管新修订的《预算法》如今已允许它们背上财政赤字。广州翻译公司。
Against this backdrop, it is probably more rational for the Chinese authorities to separate short-term imperatives from longer-term reforms. Restoring China’s growth to its potential rates is the short-term goal; structural adjustments and reforms are longer-term aims. These do not necessarily contradict each other, though. For example, allowing local governments to issue their own bonds not only solves the issue of public finance for infrastructural building, but also helps deleveraging — one of the central tasks of structural adjustment.
在这样的背景下，对中国当局来说，将短期的应急举措与长期的改革举措区分开来，也许更加合理。令中国的增长速度回复至其潜在增长速度是中国的短期目标，调结构和改革则是长期目标。不过，上述两者之间并不一定存在冲突。比如，允许地方政府自行发行债券，不仅会解决基建项目公共融资问题，还有助于去杠杆，而去杠杆正是调结构的核心任务之一。
The Chinese economy is overleveraged, but the most important cause of this is its slowdown. One of the lessons we have learnt from advanced nations’ recessions is that there will be further recession if a country tries to get rid of overhung debts by an economy-wide deceleration of credit expansion. In the case of China, increasing the government’s fiscal leverage is a way to deleverage the corporate sector. What is proposed here is a shift of government’s market debt toward its fiscal debt, and not necessarily a large increase of the government’s total debt.
中国经济的杠杆过高，然而造成这种状况的最重要原因就是中国经济的放缓。我们从发达国家的衰退中学到的教训之一就是，如果国家试图通过降低整个经济体的信贷增长速度，实现消除过高债务的目标，就会导致进一步衰退。对于中国来说，扩大政府财务杠杆是消除企业部门杠杆的一条途径。这里提议的方案，是将政府的市场债务转移至其财政债务，而未必要大幅提高政府的总债务。广州翻译公司。
China’s economy is at a precarious moment. Government policy has to strike a balance between longer-term structural adjustment and short-term growth. The trick is to find policy tools and reforms that achieve both goals.
中国经济正处于一个不稳定的时刻。中国政府的政策必须在长期的结构调整和短期增长之间取得平衡。这其中的难点在于找到能同时达成上述两个目标的政策工具和改革手段。
Yao Yang is director of the China Center for Economic Research and dean at the National School of Development, Peking University
本文作者姚洋是北京大学(Peking University)国家发展研究院(National School of Development)中国经济研究中心(China Center for Economic Research)主任、北京大学国家发展研究院院长
