Wider access to China’s markets ‘not a matter of if but when’
中国市场进一步开放只是时间问题
广州翻译公司：尽管MSCI明晟用圆滑的措辞再次婉拒A股，其仍然向北京方面传递了一个明确信息：承诺做到的事情，请证明真的会做。
Index provider MSCI’s decision this month not to include mainland Chinese A-shares in its global indices was widely unexpected by analysts. Yet investors largely consider greater access to China merely a matter of time given the country’s growing economic clout and the size of its market.
指数提供商MSCI明晟上月暂不将中国A股纳入其新兴市场指数的决定，让分析师们始料未及。然而投资者大多认为，鉴于中国经济影响力日益增长以及庞大的市场规模，中国市场进一步对外资开放只是时间问题。广州翻译公司。
“It’s not a matter of if but when,” says Mark Valadao, head of portfolio strategists for Asia ex-Japan at State Street Global Advisors. “Despite MSCI’s decision, China A-shares should still be on the table as an opportunity set as global investors prepare for its inevitable inclusion into MSCI.”
道富环球投资管理有限公司(State Street Global Advisors)除日本以外亚洲地区投资组合策略主管马克•瓦拉当(Mark Valadao)表示：“这不是会不会的问题，而是什么时候的问题。尽管MSCI决定暂不纳入A股，但中国A股仍然是一个确定的投资机遇，它最终必然会被MSCI纳入，全球投资者正在对此做准备。”广州翻译公司。
MSCI said the reasons behind its decision were chiefly technical, including a wariness over Chinese capital controls.
MSCI表示，做出上述决定的原因主要是技术方面的，包括对中国资本管制的疑虑。
Foreigners hold less than 2 per cent of China’s onshore stock markets and roughly the same percentage of its giant interbank bond markets. In recent years, tracking the opening up of China’s capital markets has become as turbulent as investing in its sentiment-driven stocks.
外资在中国国内股市的比例不足2%，在其庞大的银行间债券市场上也差不多是这个比例。在最近几年，追踪中国资本市场的开放与投资于其受情绪驱动的股票一样颠簸起伏。
Investors have benefited from launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, linking the two stock exchanges, and the widening this year of access to mainland bond markets — already collectively the third largest in the world.
投资者受益于“沪港通”(Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect)的启动和扩大——“沪港通”项目今年扩大至内地债券市场。中国内地债券市场如今已经是全球第三大债券市场。广州翻译公司。
Yet watchers have also contended with a brutal market crash last year, which informed MSCI’s third decision in as many years to hold off including mainland stocks in its indices.
然而，观察者也不得不应对去年的市场暴跌。去年中国股市暴跌，在一定程度上导致MSCI在三年里第三次决定暂不将A股纳入其指数。
“The decision by MSCI to delay . . . is, naturally, mildly disappointing for us and for other investors in the Chinese stock market,” says Anthony Cragg, senior portfolio manager of Wells Fargo’s China Equity Fund.
富国银行(Wells Fargo)旗下中国股票基金(China Equity Fund)的高级投资组合经理安东尼•克拉格(Anthony Cragg)表示：“MSCI延迟将A股纳入的决定……自然让我们和中国股市的其他投资者有些失望。”
The key theme of MSCI’s diplomatically phrased reservations nonetheless sent a clear message to Beijing: prove you will do what you say you will.
尽管MSCI用圆滑的措辞表达了自己的保留态度，其核心主旨仍然向北京方面传递了一个明确信息：你说你会做的那些事情，请证明你真的会做。广州翻译公司。
This applied not only to reforms, announced in May, to limit companies’ ability to suspend their shares at will, but also to investors’ reports that a smoother approvals process to get money into China, announced in February, was not yet working.
这不仅针对今年5月宣布的限制上市公司任意将股票停牌的改革措施，还针对今年2月宣布的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)外汇管理制度改革举措——投资者报告称，该举措迄今仍未落实到位。
“It is one thing to implement a new policy, but it takes a bit of time for the policy to run smoothly,” said Remy Briand, global head of research for MSCI, after the decision not to include A-shares.
在MSCI决定暂不将A股纳入之后，该公司全球研究主管雷米•白里安(Remy Briand)表示：“执行新政策是一回事，但让政策顺畅地运行起来还需要一点时间。”
Abuse of the previous system left more than half the mainland equities market suspended during last summer’s rout, resulting in fund managers being unable to meet redemptions or even value their holdings.
早先体系的滥用让逾半数A股股票在去年股市暴跌期间停牌，导致基金公司无法满足赎回要求，乃至无法为其持股估价。广州翻译公司。
Yet in the same week MSCI decided against including Chinese mainland shares in its indices, HSBC announced it had set up the first access for an international investor to China’s interbank bond markets.
然而，就在MSCI决定不将A股纳入其指数的同一周，汇丰(HSBC)宣布为一位国际投资者首次进入中国银行间债券市场铺就了道路。
Crucially for those following the wider opening of China’s markets, Beijing has delegated approval of would-be bond investors to a select group of banks that, essentially, vouch for their clients. This is a far cry from the cumbersome approval needed to invest in stocks under the QFII (qualified foreign institutional investor) programmes, where fund houses need to be approved individually.
对那些追踪中国市场扩大开放的投资者来说关键的一点是，中国政府已将审批潜在债券投资者的权力委托给一组被选中的银行，这些银行实质上为它们的客户提供担保。这与按照QFII项目投资A股所需的繁琐审批程序截然不同——在QFII项目下，基金公司需要单个获批。
“The scheme being followed by the bond market is almost better than the one for equities,” said Mr Briand following the MSCI decision. “[But] we can only highlight what we hear to regulators and watch for them to make their decisions.”
布赖恩德在MSCI决定暂不纳入A股之后表示：“债市的项目几乎比股市的项目还要好。（但）我们只能向监管机构强调我们所听到的，并等待它们做出决定。”广州翻译公司。
As with any move by MSCI to include A-shares, international inflows to the bond markets are likely to happen gradually in spite of the smoother approvals process.
正如MSCI对A股的纳入不会一蹴而就，国际资金流入中国债券市场的过程可能也将是渐进的——尽管审批过程简化了。
Banks are still building teams to cover A-shares and credit analysis is at an early stage. Analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that international money will count for only 4-7 per cent of the $7.4tn market by 2020.
银行仍在组建团队来从事A股业务，信用分析也还处于早期阶段。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)分析师估计，到2020年，中国市场规模可能达到7.4万亿美元，而国际资金将仅占到4%-7%。
Another issue is the suspicion of China among investors, particularly those outside the region. Hong Kong-based analysts admitted they underestimated the scale of international scepticism when most predicted MSCI would decide to include A-shares this year.
另一个问题是，投资者对中国有疑虑，尤其是那些中国以外地区的投资者。香港分析师承认，当大多数人预计MSCI今年将会决定将A股纳入其指数时，他们低估了国际投资者的疑虑。广州翻译公司。
“The key problem for China equities isn’t because it has not been included in international indices. The real issues include rising leverage, the renminbi and credit-fuelled growth,” says Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Société Générale.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)亚洲股票策略主管弗兰克•本齐姆拉(Frank Benzimra)表示：“中国股市的关键问题不是它没有被纳入国际指数。真正的问题包括杠杆水平不断上升、人民币和信贷推动的增长。”
While Beijing considers the reforms it will need to enact to win MSCI approval — which it does want — it will also have to consider how to change that sentiment.
在北京方面考虑需要实施哪些改革才能让MSCI纳入A股时——中国的确希望MSCI将A股纳入——它也必须考虑如何打消国际投资者的疑虑。
