It’s time for investors to admit it: Abenomics has failed
安倍经济学已经失败
广州经济翻译公司：桑晓霓：安倍经济学从来就与真正的改革无关，其用意只是通过贬值日元提高日本商品竞争力。
The past few weeks have not been happy ones for many central bankers — and none more so than Haruhiko Kuroda, the hapless governor of the Bank of Japan.
对许多国家的央行人员来说，过去几周并不愉快——并且没有比不幸的日本央行(BoJ)行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)更不愉快的了。广州经济翻译公司。
That is because the threat of moving rates deeper into negative territory and buying up even more assets has done nothing to weaken the yen down as he desires. Brexit, which briefly sent the yen beyond the ¥100 mark against the dollar on Friday, is a fresh headwind.
这是因为，他所威胁的将利率推入更深的负值区间和买入更多资产，并未像他设想的那样，对压低日元汇率起到任何作用。而英国脱欧则是个新的不利因素。上周五，英国脱欧的消息曾使日元升至短暂突破1美元兑100日元大关。广州经济翻译公司。
The Bank of Japan is likely to move rates from negative 0.1 per cent to minus 0.3 per cent come the end of July, increase its holdings of ETFs from ¥3.3tn to ¥6.3tn as well as its purchases of Japanese Reits from ¥90bn to ¥200bn, economists at JPMorgan in Tokyo predict.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻东京经济学家预计，到7月底日本央行可能会把利率从-0.1%降至-0.3%，还会把交易所交易基金(ETF)持有量从3.3万亿日元提高至6.3万亿日元，并将日本房地产投资信托基金(REIT)买入量从900亿日元扩大至2000亿日元。
With the yen ever stronger, Abenomics and the desired impact of central bank policies are going into reverse. The irony is that these policies, which were meant not to change traditional Japan but to revive it, are likely to end up wounding it — perhaps irreparably.
随着日元进一步升值，安倍经济学(Abenomics)以及日本央行政策想要收到的效果将会出现逆转。讽刺的是，这些政策的用意原本不是为了改变传统的日本而是为了复活它，结果却可能会伤害它——而这种伤害可能是不可修复的。广州经济翻译公司。
Abenomics was never about real reform. Instead, it was merely meant to weaken the currency, undercutting competitors like Korea and China and allowing Japan Inc to more easily export its cars and other manufactured goods to the rest of the world.
安倍经济学从来就与真正的改革无关。相反，它的目的只是让日元贬值，削弱韩国和中国等竞争对手的优势，让日本企业更容易将其汽车和其他制造品出口至全球其他地区。
That is why Abenomic’s so-called reboot doesn’t even mention immigration, beyond calling for a few foreign nurses to tend to its ageing population in carefully defined zones. Immigration could offset the declining productivity of an ageing population and a shrinking labour force — which is why its neighbour Korea has been working so hard to encourage immigration.
这就是为什么安倍经济学所谓的重启，除了呼吁少数外国护士在小心划定的地区照看其老龄化的人口以外，甚至都没有提及移民方面的举措。移民可以抵消人口老龄化和劳动力减少导致的生产率下滑，这正是其邻国韩国一直在竭尽全力鼓励移民的原因。广州经济翻译公司。
“The name of The Plan to Realize the Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens itself suggests that Japan will not rely on immigration,” notes Masamichi Adachi of JPMorgan in Tokyo.
摩根大通驻东京的正道安达(Masamichi Adachi)指出：“一亿总活跃国民计划(The Plan to Realize the Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens)这个名字本身，就暗示日本不会依赖外来移民。”
Since corporate profits for the last three years were only ever about currency translation gains, these are now going in reverse and dragging down industrial shares with them.
由于过去三年的企业利润完全是货币折算收益，如今这些利润也将出现逆转，并拖累相应的工业股票。广州经济翻译公司。
Household financial assets fell in June for the first time since 2010 because of the decline in equity prices. (The dip was minor, though, because more than half of household assets remain in cash or deposits.)
由于股价下滑，今年6月日本家庭金融资产出现了2010年以来的首次下滑。（不过，由于逾半数家庭资产仍然是现金或存款，这一下滑的幅度很小。）
Surveys suggesting companies plan to invest have failed to materialise: in April core machinery orders, the best proxy for capex, dropped 8.2 per cent from the previous year, while exports fell in May with the trade surplus down 32 per cent compared with the previous month.
调查显示，计划开展投资的企业未能付诸行动：资本支出的最佳替代指标核心机械订单在今年4月同比下滑8.2%，而5月份日本出口也出现了下滑，贸易顺差环比降低32%。广州经济翻译公司。
The March tankan survey showed corporate Japan expected the yen/dollar rate at ¥117 going forward — today it sits at ¥101.5 to the dollar. Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist for JPMorgan, expects the currency to surge to ¥90 next year.
3月份的短观调查(Tankan survey)显示，日本企业预期日元兑美元汇率未来会维持在1美元兑117日元的水平——如今日元却升到了1美元兑101.5日元。摩根大通首席日本经济学家菅野雅明(Masaaki Kanno)预计，明年日元会飙升至1美元兑90日元。
Meanwhile, negative rates are especially murderous for bank shares. “Why should a central bank policy that hurts bank shares be good for a credit-driven economy?” asks Christopher Wood, strategist for the CLSA unit of Citic Securities.
与此同时，负利率对日本的银行股产生了尤为致命的影响。中信证券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂证券(CLSA)的策略师克里斯•伍德(Chris Wood)问道：“伤害银行股的央行政策怎么会有益于信贷驱动的经济？”广州经济翻译公司。
In a way, the fact that Mitsubishi UFJ is preparing to give up its primary dealership in the government bond market is immaterial — at least from a narrow economic or financial perspective. The Bank of Japan’s purchases of JGBs far exceed net new issuance. Trading volumes have collapsed.
在某种程度上，三菱日联金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ)准备放弃政府债券市场代理权，是微不足道的——至少从狭义的经济或金融观点来说是如此。日本央行买入的日本国债远超其新发行量的净值。成交量已急剧减少。
But as a symbolic political gesture it is huge, suggesting that the mutual support and trust of the old convoy system have totally broken down. Moreover, it is no accident that the protest comes from Nobuyuki Hirano.
不过，作为一个象征性的政治姿态，这一行为影响巨大，它暗示这个旧的护航系统的相互支持和信任已完全瓦解。此外，平野信行(Nobuyuki Hirano)作出这一抗议行为也并非偶然。广州经济翻译公司。
That is partly because he headed the bankers’ association until recently and partly because blue-blooded conservative Mitsubishi has always been the strongest. It has never had to take officials from the Ministry of Finance or the Bank of Japan as part of the so-called a amakudari system, in contrast to its peers out of fear that it would someday need a favour.
这部分是因为他直至最近还是日本银行家协会主席，部分是因为作为纯粹保守派的三菱一直是实力最强的银行。该行从来不需要依照所谓空降制度(amakudari)，接受来自日本财政部或日本央行的官员，这与其他由于担心某天会需要政府帮忙而接受这种安排的同行形成了鲜明对比。
There are other signs that the private sector has become less compliant as well. Both the heads of the GPIF and Japan Postal Savings say this is no time to buy risky assets at home since they reflect only the BoJ’s buying (and perhaps foreign fund front-running of that buying). Given the flat yield curve, insurers can hardly hold JGBs, and anyway fear losses on their holdings should rates eventually move up.
还有其他证据也同样表明，私人部门已变得没那么百依百顺。政府养老金投资基金(GPIF)和日本邮政储蓄(Japan Postal Savings)的主管都表示，目前不是买入日本高风险资产的好时候，原因是它们的价格走势反映的只是日本央行的买入情况（也许还有外国资金的老鼠仓交易）。考虑到平坦的收益率曲线，保险公司很难持有日本国债，并且它们不论怎样都要担心一旦利率最终上扬，所持有资产会出现亏损。广州经济翻译公司。
In addition, there is likely worse to come for many major investors. They have been pushed abroad by the central bank. But with the yen rising in a world which has been mostly risk-off, they will have big losses on assets held in foreign currencies, especially since only a small part of their exposures have been hedged, according to data from JPMorgan.
此外，对许多大投资者来说，还可能出现更糟糕的情况。它们此前被日本央行推向了海外。然而，在这个一直以规避风险为主的世界，随着日元的升值，它们以外币持有的资产将出现巨额亏损——尤其是根据摩根大通的数据，它们的敞口中只有一小部分得到对冲。
Rather than reboot Abenomics, it is time to replace it. Investors should not bet on Japan any longer.
现在不是重启安倍经济学的时候，而是把它替换掉的时候。投资者不应该再把赌注押在日本身上。
