Vladimir Putin is not ready to toast Brexit
普京未必乐见英国退欧
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While international views of Britain’s referendum on EU membership are eagerly solicited and picked over, and Germans, Chinese and Americans may be quizzed by either side for reassurance or nuance, Russia’s support for Brexit is assumed. Vladimir Putin was an early, if unwitting, recruit as bogeyman in the service of those campaigning for the UK to remain in the bloc.
不管是退欧派还是留欧派都殷切征求国际社会对英国退欧公投的看法，双方或许也都寻求德国、中国和美国的支持或是寻找他们态度上的细微差别，但他们都认定俄罗斯支持英国退出欧盟。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)无意中早就被留欧派视作反派角色。
David Cameron, prime minister, bracketed the Russian president with the leader of Isis as people who would be “happy” at a victory for Leave. Michael Fallon, UK defence secretary, told MPs that Brexit would be “payday for Putin”; former foreign secretary Jack Straw branded Boris Johnson, former London mayor and leading advocate of the Leave camp, a “Putin apologist” for criticising EU policy towards Ukraine. Vote out, the Remain argument goes, and you will be advancing Russia’s nefarious purpose.
英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)将普京与“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)头目相提并论，认为他们将为退欧派的胜利而“感到高兴”。英国国防大臣迈克尔•法伦(Michael Fallon)对议员称，英国退欧将成为“普京的收获日”；前外交大臣杰克•斯特劳(Jack Straw)将前伦敦市长、退欧阵营主要支持者鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)视为“普京的辩护者”，因为约翰逊对欧盟的乌克兰政策持批评态度。留欧派还认为，英国退出欧盟将有利于俄罗斯实现险恶用心。广州权威翻译公司、专业翻译机构。
The logic runs like this: Mr Putin’s ultimate objective is the destabilisation, even the collapse, of the EU. A vote by a big member state to leave would be a significant step in that direction. Therefore Brexit is in Moscow’s interest. Underlying this thesis are two ingrained western beliefs: that Russia’s intentions towards the west are only malign; and that it sees the EU as vulnerable.
他们的逻辑是：普京的终极目标是欧盟出现不稳定，甚至解体。一个大成员国的退出将是朝着这个方向迈出的重要一步。因此，英国退欧符合莫斯科方面的利益。支撑这一论点的是西方根深蒂固的两大信条：俄罗斯对西方只怀有恶意；它认为欧盟很脆弱。
How true is this? Russia might well prefer a weaker EU — a grouping which, by the way, it sees as expansionist and strong — but willing the bloc’s disintegration is something of a quite different, and more dangerous, order.
这种判断在多大程度上是准确的呢？俄罗斯很可能希望看到一个较弱的欧盟——实际上它认为欧盟强大且怀着扩张之心——但希望欧盟解体则是另外一回事，也更加危险。
The absolute priority for the Kremlin has long been Russia’s security, and regional stability is seen as a condition for that. Russians of Mr Putin’s vintage have lived through the break-up of the Warsaw Pact, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fear that the Russian Federation could also disintegrate. Viewed from Moscow, the prospect of the EU falling apart threatens Europe-wide contagion from which Russia would not necessarily be spared.
长期以来，克里姆林宫把俄罗斯的安全作为重中之重，而地区稳定是实现这一目标的先决条件之一。与普京同时代的俄罗斯人都经历过华约(Warsaw Pact)解散、苏联解体以及担忧俄罗斯联邦也可能解体的时期。在莫斯科看来，欧盟解体造成的后果很可能波及整个欧洲，俄罗斯未必能独善其身。
Russia is commonly accused of trying to undermine the EU. But playing the bully towards the Baltic states and cosying up to Greece, while leaving a sour taste, are for the Kremlin no more than diplomatic manoeuvres. It regards such probing as affordable, precisely because it sees no risk that the EU will, as a result, fall apart.
俄罗斯常常被指试图暗中削弱欧盟。但恫吓波罗的海诸国并示好希腊，对克里姆林宫而言只不过是外交策略。俄罗斯认为这样进行试探代价不高，而这正是因为它不认为欧盟因此将有走向解体的风险。
In practical terms, Russia appreciates the EU’s solidity and the convenience of dealing with one trading area. Moscow was seriously rattled when the single currency appeared to be at risk — to the point of offering financial support to the European Central Bank. It saw a euro collapse as a danger to Russia, too.
实际上，俄罗斯重视欧盟的稳固以及与单一贸易区打交道的便利。当欧元遭遇危机时，莫斯科似乎深感不安——到了向欧洲央行(ECB)提供资金支持的程度。俄罗斯也将欧元崩溃视为对本国的威胁。
The EU’s success, as perceived in Moscow, is what Mr Putin wanted to replicate with the Eurasian Economic Union. This was to be a voluntary grouping of states on the EU model, building on Soviet-era economic links. It was to be a partner for the EU, not a competitor. But first the EU refused to deal with it, and then came the contest for Ukraine. The project now looks moribund, but that does not mean Russia wants to strike down the EU in revenge.
普京希望欧亚经济联盟(Eurasian Economic Union)能复制欧盟的成功。欧亚经济联盟的目标是成为一个建立在苏联时代经济联系基础上、以欧盟为样板、自愿参与的国家集团。其初衷是成为欧盟的合作伙伴，而非竞争对手。但从一开始，欧盟就拒绝与该组织打交道，而后来双方又因乌克兰问题陷入对抗。虽然这项计划目前看起来停滞不前，但这并不意味着俄罗斯想通过击垮欧盟进行报复。
Which leaves an intriguing question. If Russia is not actually rooting for Brexit, why is neither Mr Putin nor any of his allies saying so? Partly, perhaps, because they are well aware of the savaging they would receive if they seemed to interfere in the UK’s internal affairs. Partly also perhaps Machiavellian: if casting Mr Putin as a bogeyman makes a Remain vote more likely, so be it.
这带来了一个引人深思的问题。如果俄罗斯实际上并不支持英国退欧，为什么普京及其盟友都不表态呢？也许部分原因在于，他们深知任何疑似干涉英国内政之举都会招致猛烈抨击。还有一个原因或许是出于权谋考量：如果让普京当反派能让留欧阵营的胜算更大，那样也好。
The Kremlin has given no hint of any preference. If you chance upon a Russian diplomat in a quiet corner you might find, if not outright hostility to Brexit, then profound misgivings. Which is why, although the western consensus is that Mr Putin is preparing to toast an Out win, do not be so sure. The champagne may indeed be on ice. Whether it is in anticipation of a UK vote to leave the EU is another matter.
克里姆林宫没有给出支持哪一方的任何暗示。如果在一个安静角落偶遇一位俄罗斯外交官，你或许会发现，他们不是直接表示反对英国退欧，就是流露出深深的不安。因此，虽然西方的共识是普京正准备为退欧阵营的胜利干杯，但不要如此肯定。香槟或许的确放在冰块上，但这是否预示期待英国退欧是另一回事。
The writer is a London-based commentator and broadcaster
本文作者是常驻伦敦评论员、主持人
