Electric vehicles: amp it up
电动车即将迎来指数级增长
广州汽车翻译公司：全球电动汽车销量处于拐点，指数级增长在前方招手。中国是电动汽车遥遥领先的最大市场，正在引领这一趋势。
Global electric vehicle sales are at an inflection point where exponential growth beckons, similar to the adoption of solar panels a few years ago. And it is an emerging market, China, that is leading the way.
全球电动汽车销量正处于拐点，指数级增长正在前方招手，类似于几年前太阳能电池板开始大规模普及时的情景。而引领这一趋势的是中国这个新兴市场经济体。广州汽车翻译公司。
According to estimates compiled by Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the FT, there will be more than 2m EVs on the road by the end of this year, up 60 per cent on 2015. On the current trajectory that will increase tenfold to 20m globally by 2020 and, according to the International Energy Agency, could reach 150m by 2040, if the most ambitious targets for containing global warming are met (see chart).
根据英国《金融时报》旗下的宏观研究服务机构Medley Global Advisors汇编的估测数据，到今年底将有超过200万辆电动汽车在路上行驶，较2015年增长60%。按照目前的增长轨迹，到2020年全球电动车保有量将增长9倍，达到2000万辆。据国际能源署(IEA)预计，如果遏制全球变暖的最高目标得以实现（见图表），到2040年电动车保有量将达到1.5亿辆。
China is by far the largest market for EVs, with more than 300,000 expected to be sold this year — an annual growth rate of 120 per cent — and an official target of 5m EVs on the road by 2020. And while Tesla hogs the headlines, at least in the west, China already has 25 companies building 51 models of electric cars.
中国是电动汽车遥遥领先的最大市场，今年预计销量将超过30万辆——年增长120%——官方目标是，到2020年有500万辆电动汽车在路上行驶。尽管特斯拉(Tesla)独占了媒体头条（至少在西方是如此），但中国已经有25家企业制造51款电动汽车。广州汽车翻译公司。
One reason mass adoption is coming closer is the rapid decline in production costs as economies of scale increase. Battery costs, the critical component, are already down from over $1,000 per kilowatt hour in 2010 to $268 today and expected to drop to $100/kWh by 2020.
电动车即将大规模普及的一个原因是，随着规模扩大，制造成本迅速降低。电动汽车的关键部件电池的成本已经从2010年的1000美元/千瓦时(kWh) ，降低至如今的268美元/kWh，预计到2020年将降低至100美元/kWh。
Capacity is ramping up, with Tesla’s Gigafactory expected to produce 35 gigawatt hours within three years, while LG Chem in Korea is more than doubling its Li-on battery output to 20 GWh and two Chinese facilities — Lishen and CATL — are upgrading from below 5 GWh to 20 GWh and 25 GWh, respectively.
电池容量在逐渐增大，特斯拉“超级工厂”(Gigafactory)预计将在3年内生产出容量为35吉瓦时(GWh)的电池，而韩国的LG Chem的Li-on电池容量将增加一倍以上，至20 GWh，两家中国厂商力神(Lishen)和宁德时代新能源科技公司(CATL)正分别将不到5 GWh的电池容量升级至20 GWh和25 GWh。
New EV models already cost less than $40,000 and within a decade they could become cheaper than conventional cars, with an average price of about $20,000.
目前新款电动汽车的价格已经低于4万美元，在10年内，它们可能比传统汽车更便宜，平均价格在2万美元左右。广州汽车翻译公司。
Running costs are another reason for optimism, since EVs are inherently more efficient. A traditional internal combustion engine only converts 30 per cent of its fuel input into motion, with the rest lost to heat, sound and energy. EVs, meanwhile, have an efficiency rate of 80 per cent, so charging one costs about $500 a year in the US compared with the $1,400 spent on gasoline every year — despite America’s subsidised gasoline prices.
由于电动汽车本身效率更高，保有成本是另一个利好因素。传统内燃机只能将30%的燃油输入转化为动能，剩下的燃料转换为热量、声音和能量损失。相比之下，电动汽车的转换效率为80%，因此在美国电动汽车每年充电大概花费500美元，而每年加油需要花费1400美元，这还是在美国补贴汽油价格的情况下。
At the same time, range is improving with the latest Tesla Model 3 and the GM Bolt able to travel 200 miles between charges and a new Mercedes-Benz SUV promised for 2019 having a range of 300 miles. The necessary infrastructure is also being put in place. China already has 85,000 public charging stations, with the US and several European countries each having between 10,000 and 20,000.
同时，续航里程也在不断提高，特斯拉Model 3和通用汽车车(GM)的Bolt充电后能够行使200英里，将在2019年投放市场的梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)新款SUV续航里程有望达到300英里。必要的配套设施也正在部署到位。中国已经拥有8.5万个公共充电站，美国和数个欧洲国家各自拥有1万至2万个充电站。
Even so, EV sales still depend heavily on government incentives, especially since auto manufacturers are currently losing money on every unit sold. Some 90 per cent of new EV sales this year have taken place in eight markets — China, the US, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, Japan, Germany and France — which all have generous provisions for EV sales.
即便如此，电动汽车销量仍然严重依赖于政府的激励措施，特别是由于汽车制造商目前在亏本销售电动汽车。今年大约90%的新电动汽车销量出现在8个市场——中国、美国、荷兰、挪威、英国、日本、德国和法国——这些国家均推出了面向电动汽车销售的慷慨补贴计划。广州汽车翻译公司。
But while several European nations are planning to phase out such payments in the next five years and US policy is up in the air given the election of Donald Trump, China (and Japan) are likely to continue with their subsidy schemes. Several other EMs, notably India, may soon introduce them to reduce pollution.
但是，尽管一些欧洲国家正计划在5年内逐步取消这类补贴，而且在唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选后美国政策悬而未决，但中国（以及日本）很可能会继续实行补贴计划。其他一些新兴市场、特别是印度，可能会很快引入电动汽车补贴计划来降低污染。
This is because EVs are simply and demonstrably cleaner. Even if only coal is used to generate the electricity to charge an EV, the emissions are 20-30 per cent lower than those of a comparable petroleum vehicle. With the transportation sector accounting for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions and government regulations tightening, this will force the auto industry to adapt and adopt.
这是因为电动汽车明显更环保。即使电动汽车所充的电能全部来自煤炭，其排放量也比可比的汽油汽车低20%-30%。鉴于交通运输行业的排放量占温室气体排放总量的三分之一，而各国政府的规定不断收紧，这将迫使汽车行业调整和适应这一趋势。
As far as energy investors are concerned, however, the circle does not quite close — at least not yet. Yes, if there are 20m EVs on the road by the end of 2020 that will reduce the growth in gasoline demand. But Medley reckons there will be no outright reduction in oil consumption until at least 2030.
然而，就能源投资者而言，这仍不意味着颠覆整个格局，至少还没有。没错，如果到2020年电动汽车保有量达到2000万辆，这将影响汽油需求增长。但是Medley认为，至少在2030年之前，石油消费量绝对值不会下降。广州汽车翻译公司。
The reason for that is simply down to numbers. Against those 20m EVs, there are 1.1bn conventional passenger cars in existence and this number is also still growing, probably reaching 1.3bn in 2020. At that point, EVs will be just 1.5 per cent of the global fleet. Moreover, they are concentrated on the lighter end, where mileage is lower. Most heavy trucks and buses — 7 per cent of the vehicle fleet but a quarter of fuel consumption — still burn petrol.
这其中的原因完全在于数量。与2000万辆的电动汽车保有量相比，全球传统乘用车保有量为11亿辆，而且该数字仍然在不断增长，到2020年很可能达到13亿辆。到那时，电动汽车占全球汽车总量的比例仅为1.5%。此外，电动汽车的车型集中在轻型车方面，行驶里程较低。绝大多数重型卡车和公共汽车——占汽车总量的7%，但是占燃油消费量的四分之一——仍然燃烧汽油。
Even under the IEA’s optimistic scenario, EV adoption will replace just 1.3m barrels/day of oil consumption in 2030. This is very modest given that oil demand is growing at 1m b/d annually.
即使是按照IEA的乐观预测，2030年电动汽车将仅仅取代130万桶/天的石油消耗。鉴于石油需求每年增长100万桶/天，这个数字实在不算大。
As EV costs come down and adoption picks up, they can be paired with distributed solar generation capacity in developing nations, thus skipping the cost and time needed to develop traditional grid infrastructure. This does provide an exceedingly bullish outlook for EV growth. Yet starting from the current low base, it will take over a decade to have an impact on a mammoth global passenger car fleet that will continue to guzzle gas.
随着电动汽车成本降低、普及率上升，它们在发展中国家可以结合分布式太阳能发电，从而省却建设传统充电站网络的成本和时间。这确实为电动汽车发展提供了非常乐观的前景预测。不过，以目前的低基础为起点，将需要10年以上时间才能影响继续燃烧汽油的庞大的全球乘用车保有量。
Dan Bogler is a commissioning editor at Medley Global Advisors.
本文作者为Medley Global Advisors组稿编辑
