The big events that shook financial markets in 2016
2016年金融市场大事记
广州金融翻译公司：今年金融市场跌宕起伏：新年大跌，英国退欧公投，“特朗普通胀效应”，中国债务累积，人民币贬值，接连登场。
A series of big events shaped financial markets in 2016. Here is a selection of FT analyses and commentary, alongside charts, highlighting a tumultuous year.
一系列大事件塑造了2016年的金融市场。如下是一些精选的英国《金融时报》分析、评论和图表，突显出2016年的跌宕起伏。广州金融翻译公司。
The new year rout
新年大跌
January proved brutal for investors. After just 10 trading days, global equity markets had lost more than $4tn of value, with sentiment hammered by fears about China’s economic slowdown and a depreciating currency. In turn, bond markets were whiplashed by the conflicting forces of central banks selling reserves to support their currencies and investors rushing for safety.
事实证明，1月份对投资者来说残酷无比。仅仅10个交易日后，全球股市就损失了逾4万亿美元市值，对中国经济放缓和货币贬值的担忧重创了市场情绪。同时，债券市场遭受了两股彼此冲突力量的冲击：一边是各国央行出售储备以支撑本币汇率，另一边是投资者竞相买入安全资产。
As FT Markets covered the anxiety at such an early stage of the year, we cautioned that: “The global impact is painful but manageable, and far from enough to plunge the world into a new recession. After a difficult first 10 trading days of the year, this is perhaps the most favourable outcome for investors: one in which the problems they see do not disappear but are at least contained.”
FT Markets在今年年初就报道了这种担忧，我们当时警告称：“它们对全球的冲击是痛苦但可控的，远不会让全球陷入新的衰退。在今年艰难的头10个交易日后，如下或许是对投资者最有利的结果：他们看到的问题没有消失，但至少受到了遏制。” 广州金融翻译公司。
Our Big Read: Markets: high anxiety — showed how bourses suffered their worst ever start to a year, but investors were discounting the risk of a recession.
我们的FT大视野文章《过度焦虑的全球市场》(Markets: high anxiety)展示了交易所是如何遭遇了最糟糕的开年，但投资者对衰退风险半信半疑。
Another key element of the new year weakness in markets was the slumping oil price. By the third week of January, Brent crude hit what proved to be a low for the year of $27.10 a barrel, escalating the selling of energy sector shares and bonds, particularly the junk-rated debt of US-based shale drillers. That prompted Saudi Arabia to describe $30 oil as irrational.
导致新年大跌的另一个关键因素是油价暴跌。到1月份第三个星期，布伦特(Brent)原油价格触及每桶27.10美元，事实证明，这是本年度最低水平，它加剧了投资者对能源领域股票和债券的抛售，尤其是美国页岩油生产商的垃圾级债券，并促使沙特将每桶30美元的油价描述为非理性水平。
Then at the end of January, the Bank of Japan delivered another big shock to markets and banks, as it embraced a negative interest rate policy. The repercussions were immediate, as investors dumped the shares of banks, while Japan’s investors sought higher-yielding eurozone, UK and US debt. That helped drive down developed world market interest rates.
随后到了1月底，日本央行(BoJ)宣布采取负利率政策，又一次对市场和银行造成重大冲击。影响立竿见影，投资者抛售银行股，同时日本投资者纷纷买入收益率较高的欧元区、英国和美国债券。这帮助压低了发达世界市场利率。广州金融翻译公司。
The Brexit vote
英国退欧公投
Once the dust settled after the market’s new year swoon and opportunistic investors swooped to buy the dip, so the drums began beating ahead of the UK’s vote on whether to remain a member of the EU. The Brexit vote was a genuine shock for markets, given investors had been confident that the UK would stay in the EU.
一旦市场的新年大跌尘埃落定，投机的投资者便开始逢低买入，因此在英国就是否留在欧盟举行公投之前，战鼓已经开始敲响。由于投资者之前一直坚信英国将会留在欧盟，英国公投退欧对市场来说是真正的冲击。
Ahead of the referendum, FT Markets highlighted that a No vote would result in a much weaker pound and also trigger a pronounced drop in government bond yields, anticipating a revival of quantitative easing from the Bank of England.
在公投前，FT Markets强调称，公投退欧将导致英镑大幅贬值，同时还会导致政府债券收益率暴跌，预计英国央行(BoE)将会恢复量化宽松政策。
Here is our summary of a historic trading day that began in Asia as the pound buckled. “Something very bad has happened”, is how one Tokyo-based currency trader described it as we detailed how markets scrambled to keep up with the Brexit shock.
而在英镑暴跌时，我们这样总结了始于亚洲的一个历史性交易日：一位东京的外汇交易员描述道，“非常糟糕的事情发生了”。我们详述了市场如何仓惶应对英国退欧的影响。广州金融翻译公司。
At the halfway stage of the year, we highlighted five opportunities and risks for global investors. Among the risks we pointed to at the start of July were those of a weaker renminbi and a stronger dollar hitting global markets. Brazil and Japan also featured in the ranks of risks and opportunities.
在今年过半之际，我们强调了全球投资者面临的5个机遇和风险。我们在7月初指出的风险包括，人民币贬值和美元升值冲击全球市场的风险。巴西和日本也位列风险和机遇之列。
What next for markets this year: profit or peril?
市场后续如何：盈利还是有危险？
Already in the spotlight in July, and still animating markets in December, were Italy’s constitutional referendum and the bad loans plaguing the country’s banks. Italy voted No to the reforms earlier this month, triggering the resignation of Matteo Renzi as prime minister. And the country’s banking shares remain deeply under water for the year.
7月已经成为市场焦点、12月仍热度不减的是意大利修宪公投和困扰该国银行的坏账。意大利本月早些时候公投决定不进行改革，促使马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi)辞去总理职位。意大利银行股全年表现低迷。广州金融翻译公司。
The problem of ultra-low bond yields
超低债券收益率问题
Brexit and the BoE’s subsequent revival of QE was the final driver of the great bond rally that helped define 2016 in markets. By August, global benchmarks were at all-time lows, led by the 10-year gilt yielding a paltry 0.51 per cent, while Switzerland’s entire bond market briefly traded below zero.
英国退欧和英国央行随后恢复量化宽松政策，成为债券价格大幅上涨的最后推动因素，这波上涨定下了2016年的市场基调。到8月，全球基准债券收益率处于历史最低水平，英国10年期国债收益率只有微不足道的0.51%，而瑞士整个债券市场收益率一度是负值水平。
By August, the universe of negative yielding debt had swollen to $13.4tn.
到8月，负收益率债券的规模膨胀至13.4万亿美元。
The biggest casualty of some $14tn of global debt trading below zero per cent were the pension and insurance industries.
全球大约14万亿美元负收益率债券的最大受害者是养老基金和保险业。
FT markets covered the issue in depth with a later summer series: Pensions: Low yields, high stress.
FT Markets在今年夏末推出系列文章《养老金：低收益率，高压力》(Pensions: Low yields, high stress)，深入地讨论了这个问题。广州金融翻译公司。
Trump flation swiftly overcomes market anxiety
“特朗普通胀效应”(Trumpflation)迅速战胜市场担忧
After the shock of Brexit, investors approached the US election cycle with a degree of trepidation, but the smart money favoured Hillary Clinton. The shock of Donald Trump winning the electoral college vote for markets was shortlived — lasting a matter of hours — as investors rapidly embraced the idea of a Republican-controlled Congress being a game changer by implementing fiscal stimulus, tax cuts and rolling back on regulations for US business.
在英国退欧的冲击过后，投资者带着几分惶恐关注着美国大选周期，但赌注是下给希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。最终唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)胜选对市场的冲击是短暂的——仅仅持续了几个小时——投资者迅速接受了如下观点：共和党控制的国会将会推出财政刺激政策、减税并放松对美国企业的监管，从而改变局面。
Soon the concept of Trumpflation took hold, whereby fiscal policy would super charge the economy and nurture inflation.
“特朗普通胀效应”的概念很快深入人心，即财政政策将会为经济提供动力并培育通胀。
Suddenly the era of ultra low bond yields was in doubt, with the tally of negative-yielding debt slipping to less than $11tn this month.
突然之间，超低债券收益率时代受到了质疑，负收益率债券规模本月下降至不足11万亿美元。
Wall Street equities have motored further into record territory. And selling of bonds accelerated in the middle of the month after the Federal Reserve nudged borrowing costs higher and indicated a more aggressive pace of tightening next year.
华尔街股市进一步上涨至创纪录水平。本月中旬，在美联储(Fed)推高借款成本并暗示明年加快政策收紧步伐之后，投资者加快抛售债券。广州金融翻译公司。
Here’s FT Markets’ initial summary of the price action: Traders grapple with Brexit déjà vu as Trump triumphs.
FT Markets对这种价格行为作如下初步总结：特朗普胜选让交易员慌忙之间想到了英国退欧时的情景。
The return of Opec as deal boosts the oil price
欧佩克(OPEC)回归，协议推升油价
Booming share markets after the US election also reflected hopes of an oil production deal that eventually came to pass in late November when Opec met in Vienna. A subsequent agreement between non-Opec producers to also cut supply in December helped deliver a significant boost to crude prices. The big motivation for the deal has been the economic pain inflicted by a falling oil price on the economies of producers, notably Saudi Arabia. As the country looks to line up an equity flotation of state-owned oil company Aramco by 2018, keeping the price firmly above $50 a barrel is a crucial aim.
美国大选后股市上涨也反映出人们对石油产量协议的预期，11月欧佩克维也纳会议最终也确实达成了石油产量协议。随后非欧佩克产油国在12月签署的减产协议也帮助大幅推升油价。推动减产协议达成的一大因素是油价下跌对产油国（尤其是沙特）经济造成的痛苦。沙特正在谋求到2018年让国有的沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)上市，保持油价稳居每桶50美元上方是关键目标。
Here we charted the ambition of Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud for a life for the Kingdom beyond oil.
从中我们可以看出沙特副王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼•阿勒沙特(Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud)让该国摆脱石油依赖的抱负。广州金融翻译公司。
China’s debt pile and weakening renminbi
中国的债务累积和人民币贬值
As the year comes to an end, we’re examining the pros and cons of a weakening renminbi and hearing concerns about China’s vast debt pile. The risk of a more active US Federal Reserve in 2017 raises the stakes for emerging markets and the their dollar-denominated debt.
在今年即将结束之际，我们研究了人民币贬值的利弊，并听到了对中国庞大债务负担的担忧。美联储在2017年有可能更加活跃，这会加大新兴市场以及它们的美元计价债务的风险。
Further US dollar strength will hamper China’s efforts to stabilise the renminbi and limit capital flight, with the risk that the country raises short-term borrowing costs.
美元进一步走强，加上美国可能会提高短期借款成本，将会阻碍中国稳定人民币汇率和限制资本外流的努力。
The challenge facing policymakers and investors in China was outlined in early December and overshadows the start of 2017: US interest rate rises set to expose China’s frailties — the world’s most leveraged corporate sector adds to the country’s vulnerabilities.
我们在12月初列举了中国政策制定者和投资者面临的风险，这些风险将给2017年年初蒙上阴影：美国加息将会暴露出中国的弱点——中国有着全球杠杆最高的企业部门，这加剧了中国的脆弱性。
