Xi, Davos and the world in 2017
习近平、达沃斯和2017年的世界
广州贸易翻译公司：斯蒂芬斯：特朗普希望让美国摆脱全球责任，中国则可以将自己塑造成全球治理的守卫者和开放贸易体系的火炬手。
Xi Jinping is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos. Perhaps his trip tells us only that the Chinese president has succumbed to the vanity that compels global elites to parade their wisdom over champagne and canapés in a small Swiss ski resort. And yet Mr Xi’s top billing at next month’s gathering also says something about the world. President-elect Donald Trump wants the US to shrug off its global responsibilities. China may grab the opening to move centre stage.
习近平将会出席于达沃斯召开的世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)。或许习近平的行程只是告诉我们，他也屈服于一种虚荣，这种虚荣驱使全球精英人士赴瑞士滑雪小镇，在享用香槟和精美点心的同时展示他们的智慧。然而，习近平将在下月的论坛上唱主角也反映这个世界的某种变化。美国当选总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)希望让美国摆脱掉自己在全球的责任。中国可能会抓住这个缺口，走上世界舞台的中心。广州贸易翻译公司。
The populism that has unnerved the west during 2016 has scarcely been a match for the revolutionary tumult that gripped Europe in 1848. Though it ended in bitter disappointment for the revolutionaries, that year’s “spring of nations” struck at the foundations of the ancien regime. Today’s insurgents have grabbed power through the ballot box.
2016年让西方感到不安的民粹主义无法与1848年欧洲兴起的革命浪潮同日而论。尽管最终革命者失望至极，但那一年的“民族的春天”对旧制度的基础造成冲击。而如今的反叛者通过投票箱攫取了权力。
That said, a post-cold war generation lulled into believing that order and predictability are part of the state of nature has been badly shaken. Power is no longer where we thought it was. Even before the dust settles on the spreading populism that gave Mr Trump his victory and Britain, well, Brexit, we can see a different landscape taking shape.
话虽如此，被哄得相信秩序和可预见性是自然状态一部分的冷战后的一代人，依然受到极大的震动。权力不再属于我们以前认为的人。即便在不断蔓延的民粹主义尘埃落定之前，我们已看到一幅截然不同的图景成形。正是这股民粹主义大潮，让特朗普胜选，也让英国公投脱欧。广州贸易翻译公司。
The US president-elect still has everyone guessing. Each tilt towards a more temperate stance on domestic or international affairs is matched by angry late night tweets from the top of Trump Tower. No one ever accused Mr Trump of campaigning in poetry. As time passes, it seems even less likely that he intends to govern in prose.
特朗普仍然让所有人捉摸不透。他每次做出在国内外事务上向较为温和的立场倾斜的姿态，都会有深夜从特朗普大厦(Trump Tower)顶层发布的愤怒Twitter帖子相对应。从未有人指责特朗普用诗句竞选。随着时间的推移，他似乎更不可能以散文治国。
Amid the swerves and the Twitter fusillades there are one or two constants. Billionaires will pay less tax and foreign policy will be unashamedly nationalist. Mr Trump belongs to a club of Americans that sees global rules and fixed alliances as a subtraction from, rather than an addition to, US power. Multilateralism is for wimps. Geopolitics is no different from business. Mr Trump wants to make deals.
在这些突然转向和Twitter上的狂轰滥炸当中，也有一两点始终不变。亿万富翁们将会减少纳税，外国政策将采取厚颜无耻的民族主义。许多美国人将全球规则和固定联盟视为对美国实力的削弱而非增强，特朗普就是其中的一员。多边主义是为懦夫准备的。地缘政治与生意没有什么不同。特朗普希望做交易。广州贸易翻译公司。
He is right, of course, to think that the US can more than stand its ground in a world in which might replaces rules as the currency of international relations. The US is still the sole superpower — the reference point for everyone else’s foreign policy. On the other hand, discarding allies and making deals with the likes of Russian president Vladimir Putin is unlikely to advance US strategic interests.
当然，他认为在一个规则作为国际关系通货可能被取代的世界里，美国可以不止是守住阵地，这是正确的。美国仍然是唯一的超级大国——其他所有国家制定外交政策时都应考虑这一点。但另一方面，抛弃盟友、与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)之类的人做交易不太可能促进美国的战略利益。
Here lies the opportunity for Mr Xi in Davos. China’s distrust of the post-cold war order long predates Mr Trump. But it is a US president who is now bringing down the curtain on the Pax Americana. Set against Mr Trump’s embrace of “America First” trade and security policies, Beijing’s call for a “new model of international relations” no longer looks like an attempt to overturn the western liberal order.
这就是习近平在达沃斯的机遇。中国早在特朗普之前就不信任冷战后的秩序。但现在将是一位美国总统降下“美国治下和平”(Pax Americana)的帷幕。与特朗普支持的“美国优先”的贸易和安全政策相比，中国政府呼吁建立“国际关系新模式”不再显得是在试图颠覆西方自由秩序。广州贸易翻译公司。
To the contrary, China can cast itself as a guardian of global governance and the torchbearer for the open trading system. Mr Xi champions the Paris climate change accord, defends the international community’s nuclear deal with Iran and expands trade liberalisation in Asia and, hey presto, the bad guy is suddenly the good guy. As for China’s military manoeuvres in the South China Sea, it is the president-elect who now threatens to upend a decades-long Sino-US understanding that has kept the peace in the Taiwan Strait.
相反，中国可以将自己塑造成全球治理的守卫者和开放贸易体系的火炬手。习近平支持巴黎气候变化协定，捍卫国际社会与伊朗签署的核协议，并在亚洲扩大贸易自由化，骤然之间，“坏人”突然变成了“好人”。至于中国在南中国海上的军事动作，现在是特朗普威胁要撕毁让台湾海峡保持数十年和平的中美谅解。
The first step to understanding the unravelling of the global order is that the new geopolitical landscape will not be drawn in straight lines. There is a tidiness about multilateralism that disappears when shared rules are replaced by the interplay of competing powers. Perhaps Mr Trump imagines a great power condominium of the US, China and Russia. The snag is their interests collide more often than coincide. Striking a bargain with Mr Putin about Syria would see the US handing a victory to Iran. Abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal will encourage America’s regional allies to integrate economically with China.
要理解全球秩序的解体，第一步是明白新的地缘政治版图将不会以直线绘就。当共同规则被彼此竞争的大国的交互影响取代的时候，多边主义不再井然有序。或许特朗普的想象是，由美国、中国和俄罗斯共同管理世界。障碍是它们的利益更多时候会发生冲突而非保持一致。与普京就叙利亚问题达成协议将意味着美国把胜利送给伊朗。放弃《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)将会鼓励美国在该地区的盟友在经济上与中国融合。广州贸易翻译公司。
No, the new order will be replete with jagged edges, regional pacts and overlapping, sometimes contradictory, alliances. India will claim its place at the table. So too will Europe.
不，新秩序将会充满曲折、区域协定以及交叉重叠、有时彼此冲突的联盟。印度将会宣称占有一席之地。欧洲同样如此。
Mr Trump has not had much time for his Nato allies. And the lazy thing to say is that Europe will continue to be consumed in 2017 by domestic troubles. Growth is not fast enough to quell the anger of those left behind by globalisation; migration supplies ammunition to the populists; Brexit will suck up political energy. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s xenophobic National Front, hopes to harness the momentum of Mr Trump and the Brexiters in her bid for the Elysée Palace.
特朗普一向不太喜欢美国的北约(Nato)盟友。不消说，欧洲在2017年将继续被内部麻烦缠身。这里的经济增长不足以安抚那些被全球化抛在后面的人们的愤怒情绪；移民为民粹主义者提供了口实；英国退欧将会吸走政治能量。法国仇外的国民阵线(National Front)的领导人马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)希望借着特朗普胜选和英国公投退欧的势头问鼎爱丽舍宫。
Were Ms Le Pen to win the presidency, the game might well be up. There is another plausible if not yet probable scenario that sees the start of a European revival in which economic recovery picks up speed and migration stabilises. Most importantly, a victory for the Republican candidate François Fillon in France and a fourth term for Germany’s Angela Merkel restores the Franco-German motor of European co-operation.
如果勒庞赢得法国大选，那就可能一切都完了。还有一个即便目前不太可能但也许会成真的情景是，欧洲开始复苏，经济加速增长，移民人数企稳。最重要的是，弗朗索瓦•菲永(François Fillon)要在法国胜选，同时安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)第四次连任德国总理，并恢复由法德提供动力的欧洲合作模式。广州贸易翻译公司。
Either way, there is no room for neatness in the world’s new design. There is, though, an opportunity for China. Classical geopolitical theory has it that, in a collision between established and rising powers, the upstart is the destabilising force. When the elites of Davos gather for their annual fest of self-congratulatory backslapping, it would be something of an irony were Mr Xi to appear as the voice for stability.
无论是哪种场景，世界的新秩序将不再井然有序。然而，中国面临着机遇。经典的地缘政治理论认为，在老牌和新兴大国发生冲突的时候，新贵是破坏稳定的力量。当精英们在达沃斯年度论坛上沾沾自喜地互相祝贺的时候，如果习近平以稳定代言人的姿态出现，那将有点讽刺。
