Geopolitical role of trade deals is often overdramatised
勿高估TPP的作用
广州贸易翻译公司：贝蒂：特朗普若撕毁TPP，美国将错过推动部分服务贸易自由化、阻止国企扭曲市场的机会，但这不会是一场灾难。
When leaders from throughout the Asia-Pacific region met in Lima last weekend, one topic dominated the gathering: Donald Trump’s threat to ditch the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
当亚太各国领导人上周末汇聚利马开会时，笼罩一切的一个话题是：唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)威胁抛弃12个国家签署的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。广州贸易翻译公司。
The president-elect says he will begin his administration by serving notice of US withdrawal from the trade deal, which he labels a “disaster for our country”. His plans have stoked fears throughout the region that the era of Washington’s hegemony over trade, and its geopolitical influence more generally, is coming to an end. In Lima, a clearly delighted China signalled it was more than happy to take over as the main driver of trade policy.
这位当选总统表示，他一上任就将宣布美国撤出该贸易协议。他认为，TPP“对我国而言是一场灾难”。他的计划加剧了整个亚太的恐惧：华盛顿方面在贸易事务上发挥领导作用，以及在更广泛意义上发挥地缘政治影响力的时代正在走向终结。明显兴高采烈的中国方面在利马表示，它非常乐于接替美国，承担起贸易政策主要推动国的角色。
But while Mr Trump could do serious damage with another of his threats — huge import tariffs on China and Mexico — history suggests the importance of bilateral or regional deals in shaping world trade is often overstated. Nor does it appear that trade agreements are necessarily a cause rather than a consequence of geopolitical influence.
但是，尽管特朗普的另一项威胁——对中国和墨西哥征收高额关税——可能带来严重损害，然而历史似乎表明，双边或地区协议对于塑造世界贸易的重要性经常是被夸大的。贸易协定必然是地缘政治影响力的因（而不是果）的观点看来也不正确。
The fear that a state-of-the-art US model will be replaced by an inferior Chinese system of rules looks overdone. Beijing does not have an extensive rival set of laws to propagate. Its favoured trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, is known to negotiators as “the stapler”. It does little more than gather together existing bilateral and regional agreements and has little content beyond cuts in goods tariffs.
对于先进的美国模式将被落后的中国规则体系取代的担忧，看来有点过头。北京方面拿不出一整套与美国构成竞争的法律来推广。中国支持的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)被谈判代表们称为“订书机”。它只不过是汇集现有的双边和地区协定，除了削减商品关税之外，几乎没有什么内容。广州贸易翻译公司。
The “China model” is not a disturbing diversion from a move towards deeper economic integration: it is essentially the status quo. If TPP fails, the US will have fumbled a chance to liberalise some trade in services and restrain state-owned enterprises from distorting markets. But that is a missed opportunity, not a catastrophe.
“中国模式”并没有令人不安地偏离深化经济一体化的努力：它其实就是现状。如果TPP夭折了，美国将错过一个推动一部分服务贸易自由化、阻止国有企业扭曲市场的机会。但这毕竟将是一个错失的机会，而不是一场大灾难。
More generally, eliding the difference between official agreements and real cross-border commerce in goods and services leads to overestimating the importance of what officials say as opposed to what business people do.
在更为普遍的意义上，忽略官方协定与实际的跨境商品服务贸易之间的差别，导致人们高估官员言论（而不是商人的实际行为）的重要性。
The rapid integration of Asian markets over the past 25 years, often to join US-oriented supply chains, was driven mainly by technical improvements in communication and digitisation, not formal reciprocal bilateral or regional trade pacts. The US has signed no large trade deal in Asia since the Uruguay Round of multilateral talks was completed in 1994, apart from bilaterals with South Korea and Singapore. Its influence has come from American businesses and consumers, not bureaucrats.
过去25年里亚洲市场的快速一体化（往往是为了加入面向美国的供应链）的主要推动力是通信与数字化方面的技术进步，而不是互惠平等的正式双边和地区贸易协定。自1994年乌拉圭回合多边谈判结束后，除了与韩国和新加坡签署双边协定，美国并未在亚洲签署大型贸易协议。美国的影响力来自美国企业和消费者，并非美国官员。广州贸易翻译公司。
Instead, the most important liberalisation was a wave of unilateral tariff-cutting by emerging economies in the early 1990s, followed by a voluntary open agreement on information technology goods, not a conventional trade deal. Governments that want to open their markets will continue to do so, even without the TPP to coerce them.
相反，最重要的自由化是新兴经济体在1990年代初发起的一波单边削减关税行动，以及后来围绕IT产品达成的自愿开放协议，而不是常规的贸易协定。想要放开本国市场的政府将继续这么做，即使没有TPP强迫它们也是如此。
As for the geopolitical role of trade deals, they may act as symbolic consummations of a foreign policy relationship, but do not necessarily deepen ties by themselves. For example, Washington showed solidarity with market-oriented Mexican governments in the late 1980s and early 1990s by including Mexico in the North American Free Trade Agreement. Two decades later, Nafta is not visibly bolstering ties. Instead, it has, perhaps unfairly, become a reviled symbol of American deindustrialisation.
至于贸易协议的地缘政治角色，它们或许象征着外交政策关系达到圆满境界，但本身未必能深化双边关系。比如，在1980年代末和1990年代初，华盛顿方面为了同以市场为导向的墨西哥政府展现团结，把墨西哥纳入了北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)。20年后，看不出NAFTA对两国关系有支撑作用。相反，（这一点也许不公平）NAFTA成了饱受诟病的美国去工业化象征。
This is not to play down concerns about the US’s future in the Asia Pacific. If the US decides to draw back from its security role in the region, it would undermine the country’s prestige as the “indispensable nation”. But that is almost entirely unconnected with whether a particular trade deal succeeds or not. There are many other worries about Mr Trump’s trade policies, notably his calls for tariffs that could set off destructive trade wars. But the history of trade pacts as an instrument of foreign policy suggests the US role in Asia, and Chinese ambitions to replace it, will be determined by far more than just TPP.
这不是要淡化美国在亚太未来的担忧。如果美国决定不再在亚太发挥安全保障角色，那将破坏美国作为“不可或缺的国家”的威望。但是，这跟某项特定的贸易协议成功与否几乎毫无关系。特朗普的贸易政策还引起其他方面的担忧——尤其是他的关税呼吁可能引发毁灭性的贸易战。但是，贸易协定作为一种外交政策工具的历史似乎表明，美国在亚洲的角色、以及中国在亚洲取代美国的雄心，都将远远不是一个TPP所能决定的。
