Rapid growth of China debt raises concerns
中国快速积累债务引发担忧
广州银行翻译公司：国际清算银行把10%以上的信贷差距界定为值得担忧；而中国在今年3月达到30.1%，突显全球经济面临的一大潜在风险。
China’s debt has grown to alarming levels, according to new data from the Bank for International Settlements that highlight a big potential risk to the global economy.
国际清算银行(BIS)的新数据显示，中国的债务已增至令人震惊的水平，这突显了全球经济面临的一大潜在风险。广州银行翻译公司。
What the BIS terms the country’s “credit gap” is now three times higher than the typical danger level, the research shows.
研究表明，国际清算银行所称的中国“信贷差距”现在三倍于典型的危险水平。
The measure tracks the difference between corporate and household debt as a proportion of gross domestic product and the long-term trend, so highlighting any divergence between current and historical borrowing patterns — a possible indicator of unsustainable debt accumulation.
这个衡量标准追踪企业和家庭债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比和长期趋势之间的差距，从中看出当前和历史借款规律之间的差异，潜在成为一个反映不可持续债务积累的指标。
The BIS rates a reading above 10 per cent as cause for concern; China’s gap hit 30.1 per cent in March.
国际清算银行把该指标在10%以上界定为值得担忧；中国的信贷差距在今年3月达到30.1%。广州银行翻译公司。
According to the BIS, which is often dubbed the central banks’ central bank, the credit gap benchmark “has been found to be a useful early warning indicator of financial crises”.
有“央行的央行”之称的国际清算银行表示，信贷差距基准“已被发现是金融危机的一个有用的早期预警指标。”
Economists and investors within China have become more concerned about the risks from excessive debt.
在中国国内，经济学家和投资者对过度负债的风险已经变得更加担忧。
In May, People’s Daily, the Communist party’s official mouthpiece, published an interview with an anonymous “authoritative person” warning that policymakers had not done enough to control debt growth and criticising overreliance on credit stimulus to fuel growth. Overall, China’s debt is not high when compared with other large economies. Including government debt, the BIS estimates China’s total credit outstanding at $27.2tn, or 255 per cent of GDP, by the end of March.
今年5月，中共机关报《人民日报》发表对匿名“权威人士”的采访，后者警告称，政策制定者没有采取足够措施来控制债务增长，并批评过度依赖信贷刺激来推动增长的做法。总体而言，中国的债务与其他大型经济体相比不算高。国际清算银行估计，包括政府债务在内，截至今年3月底中国的未偿信贷总额为27.2万亿美元，相当于GDP的255%。广州银行翻译公司。
That is lower than the euro area at 271 per cent, the UK at 266 per cent, and Japan at 394 per cent. The aggregate ratio for all advanced economies is 279 per cent. Yet the speed with which China’s debt has grown — it is up from 147 per cent of GDP at the end of 2008 — raises special concerns, economists say. It is difficult for any country to invest such a large proportion of capital efficiently within a brief period.
这个比率低于欧元区的271%，英国的266%，以及日本的394%。所有发达经济体的整体比率为279%。然而，经济学家们表示，中国的债务增长速度——2008年底该比率为147%——引发了特别关注。任何国家都难以在短时期内高效率地投资如此大比例的资本。
The International Monetary Fund estimated in June that Chinese companies that had borrowed a collective $1.3tn did not have enough revenues to meet interest payments.
国际货币基金组织(IMF) 6月估计，总计已借入1.3万亿美元的中国企业没有足够营收来偿付利息。广州银行翻译公司。
The BIS, whose banking supervision committee formulates global rules on bank capital known as the Basel standards, said policymakers should use the credit gap data as a tool for determining how much additional capital banks should hold above the minimum international requirements.
国际清算银行的银行监督委员会负责制定被称为巴塞尔(Basel)标准的全球银行资本规则。该行表示，政策制定者应该把信贷差距数据用作工具，用来确定银行在最低国际要求之上需要持有多少额外资本。
But it acknowledges that the credit gap indicator should not be applied indiscriminately across countries. China first breached the 10 per cent threshold in 2009 and has not yet experienced a crisis.
但该行承认，信贷差距的指标不应在各国间照搬。中国早在2009年就突破10%的门槛，但至今尚未经历危机。
