Slump in US imports threatens to derail emerging market growth
美国进口下降危及新兴市场增长
广州贸易翻译公司：数据显示，美国从中国的商品进口总值自3月以来不断萎缩。专家预计，新兴市场出口大国未来的日子将更难过。
Demand for emerging market exports has hit a new post-crisis low, with US imports from China dropping sharply in July in the latest sign that the engine of growth for the world’s developing economies is sputtering.
对新兴市场出口的需求创下全球金融危机过后的新低，7月美国从中国的进口大幅下降，这是表明全球发展中经济体的增长引擎出现故障的最新迹象。广州贸易翻译公司。
The US has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise gloomy global economy and one of the few sources of growth for emerging market exporters, which last year saw exports of goods and services fall for the first time since the global financial crisis, according to figures from the UN.
在总体阴沉的全球经济中，美国迄今是亮点之一，也是新兴市场出口大国为数不多的增长来源之一。联合国数据显示，自全球金融危机爆发以来，新兴市场商品和服务出口去年首次下降。
Data from the US Federal Reserve show that US merchandise imports from China, the vast majority of which are manufactured goods, have been contracting in value terms since March and in volume terms since April.
美联储(Federal Reserve)的数据显示，美国从中国的商品进口（其中绝大部分是制成品）以价值和数量计算分别自3月和4月起不断萎缩。广州贸易翻译公司。
Elissa Braunstein, an economist at the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), said the drop in imports was puzzling due to reports of a recovery in US demand and the strong dollar, which should make imports cheaper and boost demand.
联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)经济学家艾丽莎•布朗斯坦(Elissa Braunstein)表示，进口下降令人费解，因为其它数据显示美国需求复苏，而美元强势应该使进口商品更加便宜，从而提振需求。
“This is extraordinary,” she said. “It is going to be much harder in future [for emerging market exporters]. If exports are going to deliver the growth they promised you really need external demand.”
“这是不寻常的，”她说。“对新兴市场出口大国来说，未来的日子将会难过得多。要让出口带来他们承诺的那种增长，你真的需要外部需求。” 广州贸易翻译公司。
The downturn in US demand was particularly sharp in July, when imports from China fell 3.5 per cent in value and 1.6 per cent in volume on a rolling 12-month basis, according to the Fed data.
美国需求低迷在7月特别严重；美联储数据显示，该月从中国的进口在12个月滚动基础上价值下降3.5%，数量下降1.6%。
In value terms, US imports from emerging markets as a whole excluding China have been declining since January 2013, according to data from the International Monetary Fund, largely explained by falling prices for oil and other commodities and the strength of the dollar.
根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，以价值计算，美国从中国以外的新兴市场进口总值自2013年1月以来不断下降，主要原因是石油和其它大宗商品价格不断下降，以及强势美元。
It is a similar story in the EU, the emerging world’s other main source of export demand, although European imports from EMs returned to growth in 2014 before contracting again last year.
作为新兴世界出口需求的另一个主要来源，欧盟的情况也差不多，尽管欧洲从新兴市场的进口曾在2014年恢复增长，去年再次陷入萎缩。广州贸易翻译公司。
“This is a real worry,” said Simon Evenett, head of the independent Global Trade Alert, which monitors international trade policy. “Most people’s explanation for slowing global trade is that it’s due to China sucking in less imports. But [the US data] point to flat or falling imports in the industrialised countries. The US is in more trouble than people realise.”
“这是一个真正令人担心的问题，”监测国际贸易政策的组织“全球贸易预警”(Global Trade Alert)的负责人西蒙•伊文奈特(Simon Evenett)表示。“多数人对全球贸易放缓的解释是，那是由于中国吸收了较少的进口。但美国数据显示，工业化国家的进口持平或下降。美国陷入的麻烦比人们意识到的更多。”
He said recent data showing a weaker than expected factory sector in the US added to concerns that the woes of US manufacturing may be spreading to emerging markets through the channel of trade.
他说，显示美国工厂部门弱于预期的近期数据，加深了人们的担忧：美国制造业的困境可能正通过贸易渠道向新兴市场蔓延。
“The dynamics of manufacturing in the global economy may be suffering from macro changes such as a shift to services,” he said.
“全球经济中制造业的形势可能正受到一些宏观变化（如转向服务业的趋势）的打击，”他说。广州贸易翻译公司。
This shift became clear this year when Unctad reported that in 2015, for the first time since records began, services accounted for a bigger share of the growth in global trade than goods.
转向服务业的趋势今年变得明朗，联合国贸发会议报告称，自开始记录以来，2015年服务占全球贸易增长的比重首次超过商品。
However, the shift is unlikely to provide much relief for emerging economies looking for a new growth model, as the benefits of services growth fall mainly in the developed world.
然而，这种转向不太可能为苦苦寻觅新的增长模式的新兴经济体带来显著好处，因为服务业增长的主要受益者是发达国家。
