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广州经济翻译公司:全球化-收入下降别怪我

作者: 来源: 日期:2016/9/14 8:45:09

Globalisation ‘not to blame’ for income woes, study says

全球化:收入下降别怪我

 

广州经济翻译公司:英国最新研究发现,剔除中国等异常因素后,近几十年全球收入增长其实相对均匀,富国下层中产阶级境遇并不差。

 

Trade and globalisation have been unfairly blamed for Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump, according to a study of incomes that debunks the popular view that a more connected world has led to stagnating fortunes for the lower middle class in rich countries.

一项针对收入的研究得出结论认为,贸易和全球化不公平地背着英国退欧和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)崛起的“黑锅”。该研究驳斥了一种流行观点,即一个互联互通程度更高的世界导致富国下层中产阶级的生活水平陷入停滞。广州经济翻译公司。

 

The idea that ordinary people have been unfairly hit by the rise of emerging markets and China over the past 30 years and the income gains of the global super-rich was propagated by the so-called “elephant chart” devised by the economist Branko Milanovic, a former senior official at the World Bank.

有观点认为,过去30年新兴市场和中国的崛起以及全球富豪的收入增长,令普通人受到不公平的打击。传播这一观点的,是世界银行(World Bank)前高级高员、经济学家布兰科•米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)绘制的所谓“大象图表”。

 

Development experts celebrated the graph as the “chart that explains the world”. But a new study by the Resolution Foundation, a British charity founded to support the interests of those on low to middle incomes, has overturned its findings.

发展专家欢呼这是“诠释当今世界的图表”。但是,以支持中低收入人群为宗旨的英国慈善机构“决议基金会”(Resolution Foundation)的一项新研究推翻了大象图表的结论。广州经济翻译公司。

 

After a detailed replication of the global incomes data provided by Mr Milanovic, the Resolution Foundation analysis challenges the conclusion that globalisation and trade harms the middle classes of rich countries.

决议基金会对米拉诺维奇提供的全球收入数据进行了详细复制和分析,据此对米拉诺维奇所谓全球化和贸易损害富国中产阶层利益的结论提出挑战。

 

A separate update by Mr Milanovic to the data from 2008 to 2011 also suggests greater income growth among precisely the groups hurt by stagnating incomes in the previous 30 years and much less gain for people with the top 1 per cent of global incomes, Mr Milanovic said in an interview. His update also demonstrated the world’s wealthy took a significant hit in the global financial crisis, which had actually served to narrow inequality.

与此同时,米拉诺维奇在接受采访时表示,他对2008年至2011年数据所作的更新也似乎显示,其间收入增长较大的人群,正是之前30年遭受收入停滞的人群,而全球收入最高的1%人群的收入增幅则小得多。他的数据更新还展现了全球金融危机对各国富人造成重创,实际上起到了缩小不平等的作用。广州经济翻译公司。

 

You can say the crisis was good for [reducing] inequality,” he told the Financial Times.

他对英国《金融时报》表示:“可以说,此次危机有效地减少了不平等。”

 

The Resolution Foundation found that faster population growth in emerging markets made it difficult to compare the incomes of the lower middle classes over time because their position in global income rankings changed. The larger number of Chinese families made it appear that the US poor were further up the global income scale in 2008 than they were in 1988.

决议基金会发现,由于新兴市场人口增长更快,让人很难比较下层中产阶级收入水平随时间的变化,因为他们在全球收入排名中的位置发生了改变。中国家庭数量较大,使美国贫困人群2008年在全球收入排名中的位置显得高于1988年。

 

If incomes were unchanged in every country, this population effect alone would lead to apparent drops of 25 per cent in parts of the global income scale associated with poorer people in rich countries. That generated the characteristic “elephant” shape, according to the Resolution Foundation.

如果各国收入持平,仅此人口影响就会造成与富裕国家贫困人群有关的全球收入排名显示出下降25%。决议基金会表示,这就形成了独特的“大象”形图表。广州经济翻译公司。

 

These results were exacerbated by outlying factors, such as the former Soviet states of eastern Europe, which had incomes in the same zone and saw them collapse after the fall of communism.

一些异常因素也加剧了上述结果,比如东欧的前苏联国家,其收入本来在同等水平,但在共产党政权倒台后出现崩盘。

 

Adjusting the chart for constant populations and removing China, ex-Soviet states and Japan shows a relatively even spread of income growth across the world. China is a clear outlier in performing very strongly.

根据恒定人口调整上述图表,再去掉中国、前苏联国家和日本后,可看出全球收入增长相对均匀。中国是一个明显的异常因素,其表现十分强劲。

 

Globalisation is not to blame for all the ills of the world,” Torsten Bell, director of the Resolution Foundation, said. “Although globalisation brings a range of challenges for lower income families, we need to be clear that weak income growth generally is rooted in domestic policy, and blaming globalisation takes the pressure off governments.”

决议基金会负责人托尔斯滕•贝尔(Torsten Bell)表示:“不能将世界上所有弊病都归咎于全球化。虽然全球化对低收入家庭带来了一系列挑战,但我们必须清楚,收入增长疲软通常源于国内政策,将此归咎于全球化就让政府躲避了压力。” 广州经济翻译公司。

 

The Resolution Foundation’s analysis suggests that the fate of lower middle class incomes has differed greatly country by country, and even with a rise in inequality in many places the rich world’s lower middle classes have not fared badly.

决议基金会的分析似乎表明,下层中产阶级收入的命运因国家不同而变化巨大,而且即使许多地方不平等加剧,富国下层中产阶级的境遇并不太差。

 

广州经济翻译公司

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