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作者: 来源: 日期:2016/9/9 8:56:02

End of the Isis old guard signals dangers ahead





Who killed Abu Muhammad al-Adnani? For most people, the credit for the elimination of a top Isis leader goes to the Obama administration, which has the most impressive record of hunting down terrorists.

谁杀死了阿布•穆罕默德•阿德纳尼(Abu Muhammad al-Adnani)?对大多数人来说,消灭“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)这个高层头目应该归功于奥巴马政府——奥巴马政府在追缴恐怖分子方面的记录最令人印象深刻。广州阿拉伯语翻译公司。


But maybe it was Russia? Or perhaps Adnani was assassinated by a rival within Isis?



And what if his death is a myth deliberately disseminated by Isis?



In the Middle East, every event, good or bad, is often accompanied by a conspiracy theory that sprinkles enough doubt to muddy the most obvious conclusions. And so it is with last week’s disappearance of Adnani, known as the spokesman for Isis, its chief propagandist and head of external operations.



News of his demise has brought widespread relief in many corners of the world where Isis has sought to extend its reach, by planning or simply inspiring attacks. But it has also raised questions about the state of the organisation and the disarray in the international effort to drive it out of Syria and Iraq.



There are admittedly uncommon twists in the Adnani story. Not only was his death announced rapidly by Isis last week but the US and Russia stepped forward to claim credit for it. The US administration’s statement about a precision strike was straightforward and convincing. More curious was that from Russia, which has until now deployed its military machine primarily to rid the Damascus regime of rebels who are fighting Isis. Moscow insisted it was one of its bombers that had struck Adnani and dozens of his companions, an assertion dismissed by the US as an undeserving brag.



While world powers competed for credit, on the jihadi online rumour mill, an altogether different theory was making the rounds: Adnani’s murder was an inside job in an intensifying struggle over succession.



The man most likely responsible, went the theory, was Abu Luqman, an Isis operative who fancies himself as the successor to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Isis leader.

按照这种说法,最可能的元凶是阿布•鲁克曼(Abu Luqman)。鲁克曼是ISIS的特工人员,向往成为该组织领导人阿布•巴克尔-巴格达迪(Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi)的继任者。


Luqman himself is something of a mystery. Some reports from Raqqa, the Isis stronghold in Syria, suggest that he had changed his name to Abu Ayyub last year after Isis deliberately circulated rumours that he had been killed.

鲁克曼自己也有些神秘。来自拉卡(Raqqa)——ISIS在叙利亚的据点——的一些报道似乎表明,他在去年更名为阿布•阿尤博夫(Abu Ayyub),此前ISIS有意散播他被杀死的传言。广州阿拉伯语翻译公司。


And that leads us to the other Adnani conspiracy theory: that he too might still be alive, his death nothing but a ruse staged by Isis to keep his movements safe for a while.



Bellingcat.com, a blog that uses open source material to investigate conflicts and has done good work on Syria, put the claims and the conspiracy theory to test but came up empty-handed.



After parsing maps, social media accounts, footage and timelines, it concluded that the “inside Isis job” theory should be treated with suspicion — but the statements made by the US and Russia also remained ambiguous.



So for now, it’s still safe to assume that Adnani is dead and, if he’s not, then he will have changed his name and we will never hear it again. The extent to which he was involved in planning terrorist attacks abroad is uncertain but he was undoubtedly the organisation’s leading voice, so his disappearance strikes a harsh blow to Isis. Whether it undermines it strategically, however, is less clear.



The mystery around his killing has exposed two glaring failings in the fight against Isis. One is the absence of the international unity needed to eradicate Isis, the other is the gaps in understanding of the structure and functioning of the Isis.



Barack Obama, the US president, has invested heavily in diplomacy with Russia in pursuit of an elusive consensus to end the war in Syria and focus on demolishing Isis.

美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)投入极大精力对俄罗斯展开外交活动,力求就结束叙利亚战争和聚焦于摧毁ISIS凝聚共识,但这并不容易。广州阿拉伯语翻译公司。


With a few months left for the Obama administration, there is no reason to expect that Washington and Moscow will reach an agreement. As the chaos persists, Isis buys time to rejuvenate its ranks.



Hassan Hassan, an expert on Isis, said according to the BBC website that the transition from the old guard to the second and third tiers of leaders within Isis is well under way and, when one is eliminated, others emerge that are possibly more dogmatic and resilient. More important than who killed Baghdadi is to identify the potentially more brutal, new breed.

据英国广播公司(BBC)网站报道,ISIS问题研究专家哈桑•哈桑(Hassan Hassan)表示,ISIS内部正在推进从元老向二线和三线领导人交棒的过程,当一个人被清除后,其他人就会涌现出来,他们可能更加教条更加死硬。比谁杀死阿德纳尼更重要的任务是识别潜在更加野蛮的新一代ISIS头目。