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作者: 来源: 日期:2016/8/30 9:16:49

Trump campaign benefits from criticism of trade imbalances





Both US and European policymakers have misdiagnosed what ails the global economy. It is not a short-run, cyclical problem curable with textbook Keynesian stimuli (and exotics like quantitative easing). Rather, it is a long-term structural disequilibrium caused by chronic trade imbalances — the result, in turn, of manipulated currencies, mercantilist practices and poorly negotiated trade deals. Enter, stage centre, Donald Trump.

美国和欧洲的政策制定者都错判了全球经济的困境。它并非一个通过教科书般的凯恩斯式经济刺激(以及量化宽松等不寻常举措)就能解决的短期周期性问题,而是一个因长期贸易失衡导致的长期结构性失衡,而长期贸易失衡是汇率操纵、重商主义惯例和谈判糟糕的贸易协议的结果。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)站到了舞台中央。广州贸易翻译公司。


Before the era of globalisation, which began in earnest in the 1980s, US managers improved efficiency by substituting capital for labour in domestic factories. As globalisation has taken hold, executives have offshored entire factories as a more effective means of maximising profits.



This offshoring trend is mirrored in statistics that reveal a rapid narrowing of the US manufacturing sector. In the 1970s, manufacturing employed 20 per cent of the workforce. Today, that number has dropped to a mere 8 per cent — with more than 5m manufacturing jobs lost since 2000 alone.



To those who would blame this decline primarily on automation, one need only point to Germany and Japan, which retain almost 20 per cent and 17 per cent of their labour force in manufacturing, respectively. These countries are worldwide leaders in robotics.



As the US manufacturing base has narrowed, the rate of productivity has fallen. During the 1970s growth in US unit labour costs was 6.8 per cent a year but it dropped to 3.6 per cent in the 1980s, 1.6 per cent in the 1990s and to 1.2 per cent so far this century.



This productivity decline is likewise mirrored in the rise of outward foreign direct investment. During the 1970s, total US FDI was a mere $109.2bn. With globalisation, FDI grew 59.2 per cent to $174.8bn in the 1980s, $1.1tn in the 1990s and $3tn in the first decade of this century. Today, FDI is sprinting ahead at a $4tn rate.



Of course, not all outbound FDI has been due to offshoring. The decline in US manufacturing employment and the fall in US productivity — and associated slower US growth rates and stagnant wages — have, however, been greatly accelerated and amplified by a series of bad trade deals and chronic currency misalignments that prevent trade from coming back into balance.



This is hardly the conventional wisdom — whence the continued tilting at Keynesian windmills in both the US and Europe. New studies have, however, cast increasing doubt on the standard “gains from trade” arguments that have both justified and propelled globalisation. A joint study by Justin Pierce of the Federal Reserve and Yale School of Management’s Peter Schott attributes most of the 18 per cent decline in US manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2007 to President Bill Clinton’s decision to grant China permanent normal trade relations status as part of Beijing’s accession to theWorld Trade Organisation in 2001. Other studies have concluded the “China trade shock” to be more of a zero-sum game, with American workers and the US economy on the minus side.

这很难说是传统观点。欧美的传统观点都继续倾向凯恩斯式的刺激。然而,新研究越来越让人质疑标准的“贸易利得”说法,这种说法既合理化又推动了全球化。美联储(Fed)的贾斯汀•皮尔斯(Justin Pierce)和耶鲁大学管理学院(Yale School of Management)的彼得•斯科特(Peter Schott)联合开展的研究,将2001年至2007年美国制造业就业减少18%的多数原因归为美国前总统比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)的一项决定:作为中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的一部分,美国赋予了中国永久性正常贸易关系待遇。其他一些研究总结称,“中国贸易冲击”更多的是一种零和游戏,美国劳动者和美国经济处于不利地位。广州贸易翻译公司。


The broader lesson here is that while exports do indeed create jobs, it is net exports that ultimately matter. When countries like the US and continents like Europe run massive and chronic trade deficits and countries like China do not allow freely floating currency movements to balance trade, bad things will eventually happen in the forms of accelerated offshoring, slower growth, falling productivity and stagnant wages.



This is the economic and political landscape that the US now finds itself in, and it is no wonder that Mr Trump is so popular. Like Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, the Republican nominee understands America’s economic woes can only be addressed through comprehensive structural reforms, particularly in the areas of trade and tax policy.

这是美国现在所处的经济和政治情况,特朗普如此受欢迎也就不足为奇了。与上世纪80年代的罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)一样,这位共和党总统提名人选明白,美国的经济困境只能通过全面结构性改革化解,尤其是在贸易和税收政策领域。


For example, America’s 35 per cent corporate tax rate means businesses carry down only 65 per cent of pre-tax earnings to their post-tax net. Mr Trump’s proposed 15 per cent rate promises a 30 per cent higher earnings return than at present, and would thereby greatly improve the attractiveness of domestic investment.



Mr Trump’s broader mission is to reinvigorate the US economy and restore faith in the global free trade order by ridding it of cheating and structural misalignments. Europe may want to take a page out of his playbook. This is particularly true when it comes to China. Here, Europe has lagged behind the US in imposing countervailing tariffs against dumping, and is now paying a very heavy price.



The writer, a private international equity investor, is a senior policy adviser to the Trump campaign. Peter Navarro, business professor at the University of California, Irvine, contributed to this article

本文作者是一位私人国际股权投资者,是特朗普竞选团队的高级政策顾问。加州大学欧文分校(University of California, Irvine)商学教授彼得•纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)对此文亦有贡献。