Prospect of Trump win threatens to put US Asian pivot in a spin
特朗普当选将打乱美国转向亚洲战略
广州英语翻译公司：如果共和党总统候选人入主白宫，亚洲将面临地缘政治秩序的重新洗牌。这一前景吓坏了美国盟友，却让中国得利。
Asia faces a redrawing of the geopolitical order if Republican Donald Trump becomes US president — a prospect that scares Washington’s allies while handing a gift to China, its principal rival.
如果共和党总统候选人唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统，亚洲将面临地缘政治秩序的重新划分。这一前景惊吓美国盟友，却为美国主要对手中国献上一份大礼。广州英语翻译公司。
Tokyo and Seoul braced for change after the US elections, with some in the region fearing that even a Hillary Clinton win could herald unwelcome shifts. That includes bigger defence bills and the likely demise of President Barack Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which pointedly excludes China.
日本和韩国政府已准备迎接美国大选后的变化，亚洲一些人士担心，即使是希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)当选也可能预示着某些不受欢迎的转变，包括军费账单上涨，以及美国现任总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）很可能不了了之；该协定煞费苦心地将中国排除在外。
But it is a Trump presidency, which would herald a strong new strain of isolationist politics, that stands to wreak more damage over Asia, a continent of emerging superpowers such as China, home to more than half the world’s population and target of Mr Obama’s Asian “pivot”.
但是，将给亚洲带来更大损害的是特朗普执掌的白宫，那将开启一种强烈的新版孤立主义政治。亚洲是奥巴马“转向”战略的目标，这块大陆不仅有中国这样的新兴超级大国，还拥有全球逾半数的人口。广州英语翻译公司。
A group of Republican foreign policy experts sounded the alarm last week. “We especially fear a Trump presidency’s impact on America’s future in Asia where China’s influence in the region, now the global economy’s centre of gravity, grows apace with its power,” they wrote.
上周，多名共和党外交政策专家发出警告。他们写道：“我们尤其担心特朗普当选总统对美国在亚洲未来的影响。亚洲如今是全球经济的重心所在，随着中国的实力上升，其在亚洲的影响力与日俱增。”
“Should Trump become president and put his nostrums into practice, Asia’s response will be prompt and epochal,” the Republican advisers added. “Asia’s big or small countries will be forced to tilt towards . . . the Chinese. Some of them may move quickly to seek security in a new proliferation of nuclear weapons.”
这些共和党的顾问人士还写道：“特朗普一旦当选总统并将他的‘偏方’付诸实践，亚洲的回应将是迅速而具有划时代意义的。亚洲大小国家将以不同方式被迫倒向……中国人。其中一些国家或许会迅速采取行动，在新一轮核武器扩散中寻求安全。” 广州英语翻译公司。
Chinese nationalists now see China usurping the US as the pre-eminent power in the region in less than a decade, should Mr Trump win the election and follow through on his “you pay up or we pull out” ultimatum to Seoul and Tokyo.
在中国的民族主义者看来，一旦特朗普赢得大选并兑现其向首尔和东京发出的最后通牒（“买单，否则我们就撤出”），中国在不到10年里就能夺过美国在亚洲的头号强权地位。
“If Trump distances the US from its allies, particularly Japan, objectively that can be a good thing for China’s strategic position,” says Shi Yinhong, an international affairs specialist at Renmin University in Beijing.
北京中国人民大学(Renmin University)国际事务专家时殷弘表示：“如果特朗普令美国疏远其盟国——尤其是日本，客观上对中国的战略地位可能是件好事。”
Beijing has recently chafed at the Obama administration’s endorsement of an international tribunal ruling that dismissed almost all of its expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea — and the deployment of a missile defence system that Washington and Seoul say is aimed at defending South Korea from North Korea, not Beijing.
最近，奥巴马政府认可南海国际仲裁（裁定中国在南中国海的几乎所有扩张性海上领土诉求无效），并在韩国部署导弹防御系统（华盛顿和首尔方面表示该系统旨在保护韩国免受朝鲜攻击，并非针对中国），让中国政府十分不满。广州英语翻译公司。
Kuni Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat and expert on the Japan-US security treaty, says that “the dark side has awakened in the US” — a reference to blue-collar and middle-class angst about globalisation, inequality and immigration. These forces have produced a strong strand of “neo-isolationism” in the US of a type that the Japanese find especially troubling.
曾任日本外交官的日美安保条约专家宫家邦彦(Kuni Miyake)表示，“美国的阴暗面已经苏醒”，他指的是美国蓝领和中产阶级对全球化、社会不平等和外来移民的忧虑。这些因素在美国产生了一股强烈的“新孤立主义”，让日本方面尤其感到不安。
“Whether [Mr Trump] is elected or not, this dark side will continue to run in US politics and could make it more inward-looking,” he says. “That could raise the incentives for a US president to request additional burden-sharing on security — not only from Japan but [also] South Korea and even Nato allies.”
他说：“无论（特朗普）是否当选，这种阴暗面都将继续存在于美国政治，可能让美国更加封闭狭隘。它可能促使美国总统要求加大军费分担——不仅向日本，还有韩国，甚至北约盟国。” 广州英语翻译公司。
Kim Ji-yoon at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul agrees that “whoever becomes president, it is inevitable that South Korea will have to bear more costs to sustain the [US] alliance”.
首尔峨山政策研究院(Asan Institute for Policy Studies)的Kim Ji-yoon对此表示同意，他表示，“无论谁当选总统，韩国都将不可避免地承担更多费用以维护韩美同盟”。
In China the ruling Communist party has also learnt over the years that US presidential candidates tend to say one thing during an election campaign and do the opposite after they are in the Oval Office.
在中国，执政的共产党通过多年的经验了解到，美国总统候选人在竞选期间的说法往往和他们入主白宫后的做法相反。
Campaigning for the White House just three years after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, Mrs Clinton’s husband railed against the “butchers of Beijing”. But by the end of his second term Bill Clinton had helped lay the foundations for China’s rise as an economic and military power by agreeing to its accession to the World Trade Organisation.
在1989年天安门事件刚刚过去3年后，希拉里的丈夫比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)在竞选美国总统时大力抨击“北京屠夫”。但在其第二个总统任期结束之际，克林顿同意中国加入世贸组织(WTO)，帮助为中国崛起为经济和军事大国奠定了基础。广州英语翻译公司。
Prof Shi at Renmin University notes that Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton are likely to take tougher stances than the Obama administration on territorial issues in the South China Sea — something US allies in the region would welcome — but adopt more protectionist trade policies.
中国人民大学的时殷弘指出，与奥巴马政府相比，特朗普和希拉里可能在南中国海领土问题上采取更加强硬的立场——美国在该地区的盟友将会欢迎这一立场——但也会推行更为保护主义的贸易政策。
Their stance on trade is likely to cause short-term problems for Beijing but has already delivered at least one windfall — the likely demise of the TPP, the economic complement to Mr Obama’s military pivot towards the region.
他们的贸易立场可能给中国造成短期麻烦，但至少已经提供了一个意外收获——TPP很可能夭折。TPP是奥巴马在军事上转向亚太区的经济补充。
Both Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton have expressed strong opposition to the TPP, which Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong calls a “litmus test of [US] credibility and seriousness of purpose” in the Asia-Pacific region.
特朗普和希拉里都强烈反对TPP。新加坡总理李显龙(Lee Hsien Loong)则将TPP称为“（美国）在亚太地区信誉和目的诚意的试金石”。广州英语翻译公司。
Asian analysts also generally believe that the US government’s institutional checks and balances will grant at least a short-term buffer against any dramatic realignment of regional power.
亚洲分析师也普遍相信，美国政府的制衡体制将至少提供短期缓冲，防止亚太地区实力发生戏剧性变化。
“Even with Trump’s unpredictability and the power of the presidency, the current system of alliances wouldn’t be shaken by him alone,” says Min Jeong-hun at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. “Congress, his cabinet and public opinion are all likely to play an important role in [regional] diplomacy.”
首尔外交事务和国家安全研究所(Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security)的Min Jeong-hun表示：“即便特朗普令人捉摸不透且掌握总统权力，但仅凭他一人也撼动不了当前的同盟体系。美国国会、他的内阁和舆论都可能在（地区）外交方面扮演重要角色。”
Xie Tao, a US expert at Beijing Foreign Studies University, agrees that a sudden withdrawal of US military forces from South Korea and Japan is a “fantasy”. “If he really does that, half a century’s work by the US in Asia would vanish like smoke and ashes,” Prof Xie said. “Congress and all sorts of interest groups would strongly oppose it.”
北京外国语大学(Beijing Foreign Studies University)的美国事务专家谢韬对此表示赞同。他表示，预计美国军队突然撤出韩国和日本是“幻想”。谢韬表示：“如果他真的这么做了，美国在亚洲的半个世纪的成果将会灰飞烟灭。国会以及形形色色的利益集团将会坚决反对。”
