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广州经济翻译公司:中国走出通缩将影响全球

作者: 来源: 日期:2016/8/17 8:15:26

The end of deflation in China will be felt around the world

中国走出通缩将影响全球

 

广州经济翻译公司:桑晓霓:中国经济通缩看来即将结束,这将减轻企业实际债务负担,并减轻央行降息压力,有利于阻止资金外流。

 

At the end of last year, a group of investors decided to take the Nasdaq-listed, China-based company Qihoo 360 private. Their biggest concern was whether they could get a high enough price. They did, $9.3bn including the assumption of $1.6bn in debt. But the authorities’ sharp watch against capital outflows meant the process took far longer than originally expected. That is because according to Chinese law these investors, led by Sequoia Capital China, had to create a domestic company on the mainland to buy the Qihoo shares from foreign investors. The subsequent money transfer to those offshore holders required approval from Beijing which took far longer than expected.

去年底,一些投资者决定将在纳斯达克(Nasdaq)上市、总部位于中国的奇虎360(Qihoo 360)私有化。他们最担忧的是价格是否会足够高。他们如愿以偿,总价93亿美元,包括承担16亿美元债务。但中国当局严防资本流出的姿态意味着,这个过程耗费的时间远远超过最初的预期。这是因为根据中国法律,以红杉资本中国基金(Sequoia Capital China)为首的这些投资者必须在中国境内设立一家公司,从外国投资者手中收购奇虎的股票。随后向这些境外持股者的资金转账需要获得中国当局批准,所花的时间远远超出预期。广州经济翻译公司。

 

It is just over a year since the renminbi’s surprise 1.9 per cent depreciation and an additional 4.3 per cent drop in value against the dollar later. Today the delicate balancing act between allowing the currency to slowly drop, yet avoiding giving rise to massive capital outflows, continues. July saw an acceleration in net capital outflows yet again, though not nearly as dire as in January or a year ago.

一年多前,人民币兑美元汇率意外贬值1.9%,后来又贬值了4.3%。直至今日,中国当局仍在力求在允许人民币缓慢贬值和避免由此导致大规模资金外流之间达到微妙平衡。今年7月,资金净流出再次加速,不过不像1月或一年前那样严重。

 

Meanwhile, beyond the intervention of the authorities to temper the flows, the fundamentals that partly determine the value of the Chinese currency are shifting.

与此同时,除了中国当局采取干预措施缓和资本流动,影响人民币汇率的基本面因素也正在发生变化。

 

Most notably, China is on the verge of changing from an economy where prices keep dropping to one in which deflation is expected to dwindle to almost nothing. That is a dramatic departure from the past 50 months, when deflation dragged down not only prices in China but in most of the world, thanks to exports of ever cheaper manufactured goods, as well as falling commodity prices.

最引人注目的是,中国经济即将从价格持续下跌的状态,转向通缩预计将降至接近零的状态。过去50个月,中国的通缩不仅压低了国内价格水平,也压低了全球多数地区的价格水平,这是由于越来越廉价的制造业产品出口以及大宗商品价格下跌。如今看来,这段时期即将结束了。广州经济翻译公司。

 

The end of deflation “is the most positive development for China,” says Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)中国首席经济学家朱海斌表示,通缩结束“对于中国而言是最积极的进展”。

 

The consequences will be felt both in China and around the world. The deflation was especially severe in producer prices — a reflection of the perpetual oversupply in many sectors of the economy, especially those dominated by the State-owned enterprises. Thus in the most recent month, producer prices fell 1.7 per cent year on year compared to 2.6 per cent in June. But on a monthly basis, they actually rose 0.2 per cent, led by metals prices, thanks to continuing infrastructure and property investment. By the end of July, the country was already on its way to meeting its steel and coal reduction targets, according to research from ANZ. Slower industrial production and less investment is exactly what the mainland requires.

中国以及全世界都将感受到影响。生产者价格的通缩问题尤为严重,这反映出中国经济很多行业长期供应过剩,特别是那些由国有企业主宰的行业。根据最新月度数据,7月生产者价格同比下跌1.7%,降幅较6月的2.6%缩窄。但按环比计算,生产者价格实际上涨0.2%,金属价格涨幅领先,这是得益于基础设施和房地产投资活动持续。根据澳新银行(ANZ)的研究,截至7月底,中国已经处在朝着钢铁和煤炭产能削减目标前进的道路上。工业生产放缓以及投资减少正是中国内地需要的。广州经济翻译公司。

 

If analysts’ expectations that deflation is coming to an end are right, the real burden of debt will become lighter, providing some relief to over indebted corporates, and removing the biggest cloud over the country — the concern that the growth of debt is unsustainable and a financial crisis is inevitable. It also takes pressure off the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates and bank reserve ratios at a time when many fear that monetary policy is too tight, yet the central bank fears lowering rates lest it spark more outflows.

分析师预测,中国的通缩即将结束。如果这种预测正确的话,实际的债务负担将减轻,这将让那些负债过高的企业松一口气,同时驱散笼罩在中国上空的最大一块阴云,即对于债务增长不可持续且一场金融危机不可避免的担心。此外,在很多人担心货币政策过于紧缩、而央行担心下调利率会引发更多资金外流之际,这还将消除央行下调利率和商业银行存款准备金率的压力。

 

The real borrowing cost is being significantly reduced for Chinese corporates,” adds Mr Zhu. “It was 7 per cent to 8 per cent last year but could fall to below 2 per cent in real terms.” Moreover, after a trend for a lack of profits last year, Mr Zhu expects a far brighter profit picture for 2016.

“中国企业的实际借款成本正在显著下滑,”朱海斌补充称,“去年是7%8%,但以实际值计算可能降至2%以下。”另外,在去年企业利润欠佳的趋势过后,朱海斌预测,今年的利润前景要光明的多。广州经济翻译公司。

 

Other forces are also helping Chinese corporates deal with their debts. Even if the central bank doesn’t lower rates, the banks are under competitive pressure from a domestic bond market that poses an increasingly attractive alternative to loans.

其他一些因素也有利于中国企业应对债务问题。即便央行不降息,国内债券市场的发展也对银行构成竞争压力,这个市场提供的不同于贷款的资金来源越来越有吸引力。

 

Chinese bonds have outperformed US bonds in dollar terms since 2014 and China is the only country in the SDR basket whose bonds pay positive nominal and real yields,” notes Jan Dehn, head of research for Ashmore Group in London.

伦敦安石投资集团(Ashmore)的研究主管简•德恩(Jan Dehn)指出:“自2014年以来,以美元计,中国债券的表现一直优于美国债券。在特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子中,中国是唯一一个名义和实际债券收益率均为正的国家。” 广州经济翻译公司。

 

To be sure, inflation is always a double-edged sword. If it rises too sharply, investors could demand higher yields on securities to compensate, and the renminbi could drop, precipitating another more vicious round of capital outflows. But Japan, mired in deflation, shows the perils of that state of affairs. At the moment, Chinese households, unlike their counterparts in Japan, can generally earn positive yields on their investments in the government bond market, lending support to consumption.

当然,通胀永远是一把双刃剑。如果它上涨太快,投资者可能会要求更高的证券收益率作为补偿,人民币可能会贬值,从而引发另一轮更严重的资金外流。然而,身陷通缩泥潭的日本展示了通缩的危险。目前,与日本家庭不同,中国家庭在政府债券市场的投资基本能够获得正向收益,这将对消费构成支持。

 

This is not the artificially high growth of 2009 which drove global commodities to unsustainably high levels. And certainly, China is probably many years away from being a global safe haven. But at least it no longer appears an imminent sink hole either.

现在并不是2009年那种人为高增长的情况,当时中国的经济增长推动全球大宗商品价格升至不可持续的高位。当然,中国距离成为一个全球避风港或许还需要很多年。但至少它看上去已不再是一个即将沉陷的洞穴了。

 

广州经济翻译公司

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