Dismal delivery puts big oil and gas energy projects at risk
大型能源项目效率为王
广州石油翻译公司：大型石油公司一再证明，它们无法按时按预算完成项目。展望未来，若不能提高效率，有些项目可能永远不会上马。
Oil companies have tens of thousands of employees, tens of billions of dollars in reserves, and decades of experience in running large investment projects.
石油公司有数万名雇员，数百亿美元储备，以及数十年运行大型投资项目的经验。广州石油翻译公司。
Yet time and again big oil companies prove themselves incapable of completing their projects on time and on budget.
然而，大型石油公司一再证明，它们无法按时按预算完成它们的项目。
In 2009 Chevron’s Gorgon, a liquefied natural gas project in north-west Australia, was expected to cost $37bn and start production in 2014. It has ended up costing about $54bn and came on stream this year. Soon after it started, it suffered a gas leak that meant production had to be shut down.
2009年，雪佛龙(Chevron)位于澳大利亚西北部的高更(Gorgon)液化天然气项目预计耗资370亿美元，于2014年投产。结果它的最终成本高达540亿美元，今年才投产。投产不久后就发生了天然气泄漏事故，不得不停产。
Kashagan, a $50bn oil development in the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, took nine years to move into production after it was given the go-ahead in 2004.
位于哈萨克斯坦里海盆地的耗资500亿美元的卡沙干(Kashagan)油田开发项目在2004年获批后，花了9年时间才投产。广州石油翻译公司。
Within weeks of celebrating first oil, the international consortium running the project was forced to shut it down after corrosive gas was discovered to be leaking from pipelines.
在庆祝首次出油的数周后，运行该项目的国际财团被迫停产，因为腐蚀性气体被发现从管道漏出。
Royal Dutch Shell, one of the companies in the consortium running the project said in March that the group expected to restart production around the end of 2016.
财团成员之一荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)今年3月表示，预计要到2016年底才能复产。
Those are far from isolated occurrences. A study of 365 oil and gas “megaprojects” by Ernst & Young, the professional services firm, found 64 per cent faced cost overruns and 73 per cent were behind schedule.
这些远非孤例。专业服务公司安永(Ernst & Young)对365家油气“巨型项目”进行研究后发现，64%面临成本超支问题，73%落后于进度表。
Of the 20 largest, only seven were being delivered in line with the budget approved when the final investment decision was taken. Three were running 75-100 per cent over their initial budget, and the average cost overrun was 23 per cent.
在规模最大的20个项目中，只有7个在交付时符合做出最终投资决定时获批的预算。3个项目比最初预算超支75%-100%，而平均预算超支达23%。广州石油翻译公司。
Analysis published in June by McKinsey, the management consultancy, showed eight recent large oil and gas projects had ended up costing more than twice as much as originally estimated.
管理咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)今年6月发表的分析报告显示，近期8个大型油气项目最终耗资是最初估计的两倍。
“The industry has got a real problem,” says Chris Pateman-Jones of Ernst & Young. “Projects are becoming larger and more complex and more challenging . . . Even if they were to hit their targets, they could still be uneconomic.”
安永的克里斯•佩特曼-琼斯(Chris Pateman-Jones)表示：“整个行业确实存在问题。项目越来越大，而且越来越复杂，也越来越具挑战性……即便它们达到了目标，也可能仍然是不经济的。”
Such analysis illustrates the quandary facing the oil majors such as BP and Chevron, challenged by the boom in shale oil and gas production from their smaller, nimbler rivals in North America and by state-controlled rivals in resource-rich countries. Their fortunes are also threatened by policies to cut carbon dioxide emissions that are curbing demand for fossil fuels.
此类分析表明英国石油(BP)和雪佛龙等大型石油公司面临的困境，这些公司受到北美规模较小、更为灵活的竞争对手页岩油气产量飙升以及产油国的国有竞争对手的挑战。它们的命运还受到削减二氧化碳排放政策的威胁——减排政策遏制了市场对化石燃料的需求。广州石油翻译公司。
Yet with oil prices low and capital spending plans slashed, the prices of oil services and equipment are falling. So, this could be a good time to start spending on projects that will come into production as oil prices recover.
然而，随着油价保持低位和资本支出计划遭到削减，石油服务和设备的价格下跌。因此，现在可能是开始投资项目的好时机，这些项目将会在油价复苏之际投产。
But such a strategy will only pay off if those projects are completed efficiently. “To reap the benefits of investing in these large projects at the bottom of the cycle, it’s critical that the operators deliver them on time and on budget,” says Angus Rodger of Wood Mackenzie, the research company. “The industry’s recent record at delivering major projects has been dismal, so that needs to improve.”
但这项战略将只有在那些项目高效率完工的情况下才会奏效。研究公司Wood Mackenzie的安格斯•罗杰(Angus Rodger)表示：“为了收获在周期底部投资于这些大型项目的益处，作业方按时按预算完成项目至关重要。近年该行业在交付大型项目方面的记录不佳，需要改进。”
Even before the oil price crash of 2014, large developments were falling out of favour because of rising costs and declining profits across the sector. In 2007-13 there were about 40 large projects approved by the oil and gas industry worldwide each year, Mr Rodger says. Last year there were just eight, and this year there are likely to be about 10.
即使在2014年油价暴跌之前，整个行业的大型开发项目由于成本攀升和利润下降而失去支持。罗杰表示，从2007年到2013年，世界各地油气行业每年大约有40个大型项目获批。去年只有8个项目获批，今年可能有10个左右。广州石油翻译公司。
Chevron has signalled a shift away from large projects towards smaller investments, including in shale in North America.
雪佛龙发出信号暗示，将从大型项目转向较小规模的投资，包括北美地区的页岩投资。
But even those that do have shale reserves find it hard to compete with their smaller, more agile rivals such Devon Energy and EOG Resources, which have made all the running in the industry. In shale, bigger is not better.
但是，即便那些拥有页岩储量的公司也发现很难与戴文能源(Devon Energy)和依欧格资源公司(EOG Resources)等规模较小、更为灵活的对手竞争——这些公司正在页岩行业唱主角。在页岩行业，更大并非更好。
For big oil companies, projects such as deepwater oilfields or liquefied natural gas plants will continue to be critical to their future.
对大型石油公司来说，深海油田或液化天然气设施等项目仍然对它们的未来至关重要。
There are steps that they can take to improve the economics of those investments, some of them learned from other industries.
它们可以采取如下举措来提高那些投资项目的经济性，其中一些学自其他行业。广州石油翻译公司。
One is to use new technologies to cut costs. 3D printing, for example, can reduce the need for large inventories of parts to be kept or delivered to projects that are often in remote locations. Another is better contract design that gives suppliers an incentive to hold down costs.
一个是使用新技术来削减成本。例如，有了3D打印技术，就不必保持大量部件库存，或将它们递送至往往位于偏远地区的项目所在地。另一个是设计更好的合同，让供应商有动力压低成本。
“The history of the industry is that there has been an adversarial relationship between operators and contractors not because they are bad people, but because the business incentives set it up that way,” Mr Pateman-Jones says. “I think we will move to much more effective ways of delivering projects.”
佩特曼-琼斯表示：“纵观行业历史，作业方和承包商处于对立关系，不是因为他们是坏人，而是因为商业激励就是那么设定的。我认为我们将会转向更有效的项目交付方式。”
If projects cannot be made more efficient, he adds, then they may never get off the ground. “If I were investing in some of these really big projects, I would be questioning whether they really made sense over a long period of time.”
他补充称，如果不能提高项目效率，那么它们可能永远不会上马。“如果我投资于一些真正庞大的项目，我会质问长期而言它们是否真的明智”。
