Hong Kong: One country, two economies
香港经济阴云笼罩
广州经济翻译公司：随着中国经济放缓，旅游、零售等香港传统支柱行业均受影响，而港人与北京间的紧张使特区经济更难摆脱困境。
On the edge of Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbour, workers are building a cavernous station that will be the terminus for one of the most expensive high-speed rail links ever constructed. The $11bn fast train linking Hong Kong to mainland China is meant to be a showpiece for integration between the semi-autonomous territory and its mother country.
在香港维多利亚港边缘，工人们正在建造一座大型火车站，这里将是史上造价最高的高铁线路之一的终点站。连接香港与中国内地、耗资110亿美元的广深港高铁，意在展示这个半自治的特别行政区与祖国的融合。广州经济翻译公司。
Instead, the over-budget and behind-schedule project has turned into a symbol of the deteriorating political and economic relationship between Beijing and Hong Kong. It could be a foretaste of the profound difficulties that lie ahead for the global financial centre.
然而，这个预算超支且工期推迟的项目，已演变为内地与香港政治和经济关系恶化的象征。它可能预示着这个全球金融中心未来将面临深层次困难。
To smooth rail departures, the Hong Kong government is planning to place Chinese border police inside Kowloon station, much like French police conduct checks on outgoing Eurostar passengers at St Pancras terminus in London. The proposal might have been convenient for travellers but was worrying Hong Kongers, even before the detention last year by the mainland police of five Hong Kong publishers who sold works critical of China’s ruling Communist party.
为了方便铁路旅客出站，香港政府计划在九龙车站内安排内地警察进行边检，就像法国警察在欧洲之星(Eurostar)列车的伦敦终点站圣潘克拉斯车站检查出站旅客。这个提议也许为乘客提供方便，但让香港人担忧，即使在去年内地警方拘留5名香港书商之前就是如此，这5人销售了批评中国执政党共产党的图书。
The apparent abductions have shaken the confidence of the city’s 7m residents — and international investors — in the legal autonomy and civic freedoms that Beijing guaranteed to Hong Kong for 50 years from 1997, the year of the British handover.
这些明显的绑架行为动摇了香港700万市民以及国际投资者对于香港司法独立和公民自由的信心，北京方面曾保证香港将在1997年回归后50年期间享受司法独立和公民自由。广州经济翻译公司。
The case of the booksellers has crystallised anger over growing interference by Beijing. Opposition legislators have vowed to block the rail project rather than allow Chinese police to operate in the heart of Hong Kong.
香港书商案体现了人们对内地干预日益加大的愤怒。香港反对派议员发誓要阻碍广深港高铁项目，而不让内地警方在香港市中心执行公务。
“To me it’s unacceptable and it is worrying for the Hong Kong people,” says Kenneth Leung, a lawmaker in the city’s legislative council. “We don’t want integration with China because our style and way of thinking can’t be integrated.”
“对我来说，这是不可接受的，它让香港人民感到担忧，”香港立法会议员梁继昌(Kenneth Leung)表示，“我们不希望与内地融合，因为我们的风格和思维方式不可能融合。”
After delays caused by technical difficulties and cost overruns, the political opposition could mean further problems for the 26km rail line to Shenzhen, just over the border in China. It had been scheduled to open in 2015 but will not be operational before late 2018.
在因为技术问题和成本超支造成延误后，政治反对可能意味着，这条26公里长的连接香港与深圳的铁路将遇到更多问题。深圳毗邻香港。该铁路原定于2015年通车，但现在看来在2018年末之前不会投入运营。广州经济翻译公司。
Unfortunately for Hong Kong the battle over its future is coming as its China-dependent economy faces the “worst time in 20 years”, according to John Tsang, the financial secretary.
对香港而言不幸的是，围绕该市未来的纷争展开之际，正值其依赖内地的经济遭遇香港财政司司长曾俊华(John Tsang)所称的“20年来最糟糕时刻”。
“Hong Kong is really dependent on China and external trade,” says Lily Lo, an economist at DBS, the Singaporean bank, in Hong Kong. “The Chinese economy is slowing down and this is a structural slowdown so we don’t think there will be a V-shaped recovery any time soon. There’s no quick fix.”
“香港确实依赖内地和对外贸易，”新加坡银行星展银行(DBS)驻香港经济学家卢明俐(Lily Lo)表示，“中国经济正在放缓，这是结构性放缓，因此我们不认为它很快会出现V型复苏。没有快速解决方案。” 广州经济翻译公司。
Signals of a slowdown
放缓信号
The rail link and other large infrastructure projects are supposed to secure a place for the city as a hub in the sprawling and wealthy Pearl River Delta region on the southern coast of China. A 30km sea bridge and tunnel is being built to connect Hong Kong with the casino centre of Macau and the mainland city of Zhuhai and is also beset by cost overruns and delays. Escalating tensions, both with Beijing and within Hong Kong, are further complicating these projects and adding to the economic clouds over the territory.
广深港高铁和其他大型基础设施项目的宗旨是确保香港的地位，使其成为中国南方沿海广袤且富有的珠江三角洲的一个枢纽。目前正在修建的长30公里的跨海大桥和隧道——连接香港与博彩中心澳门和内地城市珠海的港珠澳大桥项目，也受到成本超支和工期延误的困扰。不断升级的紧张关系（既包括香港与北京，也包括香港内部）正进一步令这些项目复杂化，加重了笼罩着香港的经济阴霾。
Its traditional pillars of wealth — tourism, retail, trade, financial services and property development — have all been hit by cyclical and structural downturns that have exposed the reliance on China, which accounts for 40 per cent of trade.
香港的传统财富支柱（旅游、零售、贸易、金融服务和房地产开发）都受到周期性和结构性低迷的影响，这种低迷暴露了香港对内地的依赖，内地占香港贸易的40%。广州经济翻译公司。
Over the past decade, China has opened its economy further and more investors are doing business directly with the mainland, causing Hong Kong to lose its relevance as a gateway. Its container port, which was the world’s busiest in the 2000s, has fallen to fifth place, overtaken by Shanghai, Shenzhen and Ningbo. Facing a severe shortage of space, high costs and Chinese rivals with strong government support, more downward pressure is likely.
过去10年，中国内地进一步开放经济，更多的投资者直接与内地开展业务往来，这导致香港丧失了作为一个门户的相关性。香港的集装箱港口在本世纪头10年曾经是全球最忙碌的，现在却滑落至第五名，被上海、深圳和宁波超越。面对空间的严重匮乏、高成本以及获得强大政府支持的内地竞争对手，香港经济可能面临更多下行压力。
Previously Hong Kong benefited from rapid growth in China and low interest rates in the US, given that its currency is pegged to the dollar. Now the situation is reversing, with China facing a period of restructuring and slower growth, while the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates further, although many investors are betting it will not happen in 2016.
以前，香港得益于内地经济的快速增长以及美国的低利率（因为港元盯住美元）。如今形势在逆转，中国正面临一段时期的转型和增长放缓，而美联储(Fed)预计将继续加息，尽管很多投资者认为，美联储不会在2016年加息。
China’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow by about 6 per cent this year. In Hong Kong, the government predicts that it will be lucky if GDP increases by 1-2 per cent.
预计内地的国内生产总值(GDP)增速今年将达到6%左右。在香港，政府预测，如果GDP增长1%至2%，就算幸运了。广州经济翻译公司。
Mr Tsang and Li Ka-shing, the billionaire whose interests in Hong Kong stretch from ports to property and retail to telecoms, have both warned that the economic outlook is worse than that faced during the Sars epidemic in 2003, which killed 299 people and prompted the last sharp slowdown.
曾俊华和亿万富翁李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)都警告称，香港的经济前景比2003年“非典”期间还要糟糕，当年那场疫情导致299人死亡并造成上一次经济剧烈放缓。李嘉诚在香港的业务涵盖多个行业，从港口到房地产，从零售业到电信。
Retail has taken the biggest hit in the current downturn. Sales had been buoyed when wealthy Chinese consumers flocked to the territory to buy luxury goods and cosmetics, but takings slipped 11 per cent year on year during the first five months of 2016 and the number of mainland tourists dropped 12 per cent in the same period to 17m.
零售业是当前这场经济低迷的重灾区。此前，在富有的内地消费者蜂拥至香港购买奢侈品和化妆品时，香港零售销售额曾受到提振。但在2016年头5个月，销售额同比下滑11%，同期内地游客数量减少12%，至1700万人。
Chow Tai Fook, the biggest jeweller in the world by market capitalisation, is seen as a bellwether for mainland demand for Hong Kong’s luxury goods. Its sales in Hong Kong and Macau fell on an annualised basis by 22 per cent in the three months to the end of June. Other companies, such as handbag retailer Coach and watchmaker Jaeger-LeCoultre, which viewed Hong Kong as a cash cow, have been closing stores.
全球市值最高的珠宝商周大福(Chow Tai Fook)被视为内地对香港奢侈品需求的风向标。在截至6月底的3个月里，该公司在香港和澳门的销售额按年率下滑22%。曾把香港视为摇钱树的其他公司（例如手袋零售商Coach和名表制造商积家(Jaeger-LeCoultre)）近来在关店。广州经济翻译公司。
Even Hong Kong’s humble tea shops — known as Cha Chaan Teng — have seen a slide in sales of their cheap noodles and milk tea. At Tsui Wah, a popular chain, profits for the year to March fell by more than half to HK$72m ($9.3m).
就连香港的低消费茶餐厅也遭遇了低价面条和奶茶的销售额下滑。人气颇高的茶餐厅连锁翠华(Tsui Wah)在截至3月的一年利润下滑逾一半，至7200万港元（合930万美元）。
‘At the low end of expectations’
“预期区间的低端”
Shaun Rein, who runs China Market Research in Shanghai, warns that the slump in retail is not simply the result of the Chinese slowdown or the crackdown on extravagance and corruption by President Xi Jinping. “There is a deep-seated animosity to mainlanders in Hong Kong,” he says. “So why would they want to go somewhere they are not welcome when there are so many other choices?”
中国市场研究集团(China Market Research)的董事总经理雷小山(Shaun Rein)警告称，零售骤降不只是中国经济放缓或者中国国家主席习近平发起的反腐和反铺张运动的结果。他说：“香港对内地人的敌意很深，因此在有这么多其他选择的时候，内地游客为什么要去不欢迎自己的地方？” 广州经济翻译公司。
Retail, tourism and associated sectors such as transport account for 35 per cent of Hong Kong’s GDP and employ 1.4m people. Other key parts of the economy such as banking, property and trading services are also suffering. Declining interest from mainland buyers has contributed to falling house prices, although Hong Kong still has the most expensive housing in the world as a proportion of median income.
零售、旅游以及交通等相关部门占到香港GDP的35%，雇用着140万人。银行、房地产和交易服务等其他关键经济部门也受到了影响。内地买家兴趣下降导致房价下跌，尽管按房价与收入中位数之比，香港房价仍是全球最贵的。
Yu Kam-hung, managing director of investment properties at CBRE, an estate agent, predicts that prices could fall up to 10 per cent over the next year, and they are already 10 to 15 per cent off their peak of 18 months ago. Some developers are taking aggressive measures to close deals, such as offering buyers top-up financing to cover the initial deposit and other costs excluding a bank mortgage.
房地产经纪公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)的投资物业部董事总经理余锦雄(Yu Kam-hung)预测，未来一年里房价可能下跌10%，如今的房价与18个月前的峰值相比已经下跌了10%-15%。一些房地产开发商正在采取激进举措来锁定交易，比如为买家提供银行抵押贷款以外的补充融资来覆盖首付和其他成本。
“We think it’s a sign of desperation and a negative reflection on the market,” says Denis Ma, the head of research in Hong Kong for JLL, another property company. He says the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, with a glut of new supply still coming on to the market. “A lot of land sales are going through at the low end of expectations . . . so developers aren’t that optimistic about the market outlook,” he adds.
香港另一家房地产公司仲量联行(JLL)的市场研究部总监马安平(Denis Ma)表示：“我们认为这是绝望的迹象，反映出市场的负面前景。”他说，房地产形势在好转之前可能还会进一步恶化，大量新供应仍有待进入市场。他补充称：“许多地块销售在预期区间的低端完成……也就是说开发商对市场前景不那么乐观。” 广州经济翻译公司。
Banks with exposure to the mainland are starting to feel the fallout as Beijing allows some defaults from state-owned companies, as well as private enterprises, in an attempt to manage the huge debt overhang that threatens to undermine growth and stability. Bank of East Asia, which is one of the local lenders most exposed, saw its impairment losses double last year to HK$2bn because of China’s woes. It recently laid off 180 staff.
随着北京方面允许国有企业以及民营企业出现一些违约，以求管理可能破坏增长和稳定的巨额债务负担，在内地有敞口的银行开始感受到冲击波。由于在内地遭遇困境，东亚银行(Bank of East Asia)的资产减值损失去年倍增至20亿港元。该行是对内地敞口最大的港资银行之一，最近裁掉了180名员工。
Unemployment is running at 3.4 per cent, and Ms Lo says the rate is likely to increase next year, feeding back into further weakness in property, retail and banking, and adding to the feeling of resentment.
香港的失业率高达3.4%，星展银行的卢明俐表示，明年失业率可能上升，反过来让房地产、零售和银行业进一步疲弱，也加剧人们的不满。
Moody’s, the credit rating agency, says the headwinds facing Hong Kong’s banks “will pressure the system’s asset quality and profits, and test its resilience, given the territory’s elevated property prices and the banks’ growing linkages with mainland China”.
信用评级机构穆迪(Moody's)表示，“鉴于香港房价高企以及港资银行与内地联系日益紧密，这些银行面临的逆风将让金融体系的资产质量和利润承压，并考验其抗冲击能力”。广州经济翻译公司。
The concerns about Hong Kong’s economy have been compounded by fears over the city’s autonomy and legal independence, which are at the core of its attraction for international companies. Since 1997, global investors, from banks to retailers, have put their faith in Hong Kong’s British-style legal system, which contrasts sharply with the capricious, Communist-party controlled system in the mainland.
对香港自治和司法独立性的忧虑，加剧了人们对香港经济的担忧——自治和司法独立是香港吸引国际公司的核心要素。自1997年以来，从银行到零售商，全球投资者信任香港的英式司法体系，后者与内地由共产党控制的反复无常的司法体系形成鲜明对比。
Suspicions that Beijing has been meddling more in Hong Kong have been increasing since Mr Xi came to power in 2012 and launched a crackdown on dissent that has been slowly extending beyond the mainland’s jurisdiction.
人们怀疑，北京方面一直在加大对香港的干预，这种怀疑自2012年习近平上台并发起打击异见运动以来进一步增强——如今打击异见活动逐步扩大至内地司法管辖区以外。
These misgivings intensified after the five booksellers vanished between last October and December, before appearing in mainland police custody accused of distributing politically sensitive works.
去年10月至12月，5名香港书商先后失联，后来发现是因发行政治敏感图书而被内地警方拘留，这加剧了人们的疑虑。
One of the five — British citizen Lee Bo — disappeared from Hong Kong, leading many to believe he had been abducted by Chinese agents in violation of local law. He later claimed, under apparent duress, that he had gone to the mainland of his own volition.
英国公民李波是这5人中的一人，他在香港失踪，导致许多人认为他是被违反香港法律的中国官方人员绑架的。李波后来在明显的胁迫下宣称，他是自行前往内地的。广州经济翻译公司。
The British government said the incident “unnerved” the business community. Executives are reluctant to speak on the record about their concerns for fear of upsetting Beijing but, in private, they are anxious.
英国政府表示，此次事件让商界“感到不安”。高管们因为担心得罪北京方面而不愿公开谈及自己的不安，但在私下里表示了焦虑。
“For many businesses, the incident has raised questions about the rule of law, which is one of the absolutely key aspects that makes Hong Kong work and gives people the confidence to do business here,” says an executive from one foreign chamber of commerce in Hong Kong. “The rule of law is not an abstract. People care about how it works in practice.”
香港某外国商会的一名高管表示：“对许多企业来说，此次事件令人对法治产生问号，而法治是成就香港、让人们有信心在此开展业务的绝对关键因素之一。法治不是一个抽象概念。人们关心它在实践中的运用。”
Damage control
损害控制
The Hong Kong government, caught between its masters in Beijing and an increasingly divided population at home, has struggled to respond convincingly to its troubles.
被夹在北京的高层与本地日益分歧的市民群体之间的香港政府，难以令人信服地回应这些麻烦。
Economically, the government has always taken a laissez-faire approach and the currency peg means Hong Kong is unable to implement its own monetary stimulus. The government has offered some tax breaks to boost consumption and investment, while property developers are calling for it to reduce stamp duty on non-residents to boost the sector. Economists, however, say the effect of such measures is likely to be limited.
从经济方面来说，香港政府始终采取自由放任的做法，而港元盯住美元的联系汇率制度意味着香港无法出台自己的货币刺激政策。香港政府出台了一些税收减免政策来促进消费和投资，同时房地产开发商呼吁政府削减非居民印花税以提振该部门。然而，经济学家们表示，此类举措的效果很可能有限。广州经济翻译公司。
Opinion polls suggest the public has little faith in CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, who was elected by a 1,200-member body dominated by pro-Beijing elites. He was heavily criticised for his main policy speech at the start of the year. This offered few solutions to problems such as widespread social inequality and unaffordable housing, but paid homage 48 times to One Belt, One Road, Mr Xi’s lofty but vague plan to build a Eurasian infrastructure network that will not pass through Hong Kong.
民调显示，香港公众对特区行政长官梁振英(CY Leung)缺乏信心，他是由亲北京精英人士主导的1200人选举委员会推选为香港特首的。他在今年初的施政演讲遭到外界的猛烈抨击。他在演讲中没有对普遍的社会不平等和市民买不起房子等现实问题拿出对策，而是毕恭毕敬地48次提及“一带一路”项目。“一带一路”是习近平提出的一个宏伟但模糊的计划，目的是建设跨越欧亚大陆的基础设施网络，香港并不是沿线城市。
“I feel our government is only trying hard to please the central government but is neglecting the actual needs of Hong Kong people,” says Leung Wai-faat, a 23-year-old project co-ordinator for a construction company.
23岁的梁伟发(Leung Wai-faat)是一家建筑公司的项目协调人，他表示：“我觉得我们的政府只是在努力取悦中央政府，但忽视了香港市民的实际需求。”
It is possible that elections for the partially democratically elected legislative council in September could alter the balance of power in Hong Kong, if only slightly. Most analysts, though, expect the deadlock between opposition lawmakers and the pro-Beijing faction to continue.
在一定程度上经由民主选举产生的香港立法会将于今年9月换届，此次选举可能改变香港的力量平衡，即便只是略微的改变。然而，大多数分析人士预计，反对派议员和亲北京派议员对峙的局面将延续下去。广州经济翻译公司。
If that happens and relations with Beijing remain tense, it will be very difficult for Hong Kong to mitigate the impact of its structural and cyclical problems.
如果发生这种情况，而香港与北京的关系依然紧张，香港将很难缓解其结构性和周期性问题的影响。
“I’ve already told my son that he should make sure he has his own career because he cannot presume that our family business will be thriving in Hong Kong when he grows up,” says one tycoon close to the government. “The trust gap between Beijing and Hong Kongers keeps growing and that is very worrying at a time when our economy is already facing so many challenges.”
一位接近香港政府的企业大亨表示：“我已经告诉我儿子，他应该确保有自己的事业，因为他不能想当然地认为，当他长大时我们的家族企业还会在香港蓬勃发展。北京和港人之间的信任鸿沟越来越大，在本港经济已经面临如此多挑战之际，这让人非常担心。”
Additional reporting by Gloria Cheung
Gloria Cheung补充报道
