广州能源翻译公司：中国绿色革命走向全球

China’s green revolution goes global

中国绿色革命走向全球

广州能源翻译公司：斯特恩：中国在推动绿色发展，把它作为新经济增长战略的一部分。它的成功经验可能很快被其他许多国家效仿。

Smart investors are recognising thatChinaintends to lead theUSand other countries in the race to develop green technologies as part of its ambitious new strategy for economic growth.

聪明的投资者意识到，中国希望在发展绿色技术的竞赛中领先于美国和其他国家，把它作为新的经济增长战略的一部分。广州能源翻译公司。

China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, for the period from 2016 to 2020, is guided by five principles: innovation, coordination, greening, opening up and sharing. When Zhang Gaoli, vice-premier, described these principles this year to a group of overseas business and academic leaders at the China Development Forum, he spent longest on ‘greening’, providing a clear indication of the importance being placed on green development for China’s future growth.

中国的“十三五”规划（2016年至2020年）有5个指导原则：创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享。当中国副总理张高丽今年在中国发展高层论坛(China Development Forum)上向一众海外商界和学术界领导人描述这些原则的时候，他讲得最多的是“绿色”，明显表明中国未来的增长侧重于绿色发展。

In a conversation that followed, Li Keqiang,China’s premier, told Mark Fields, chief executive of the Ford Motor Company, that sales of gasoline-powered cars are likely to be overtaken within the next two decades inChinaby those of “new energy vehicles”. Both the emphasis and the exchange are indicative ofChina’s plans for a clean economy, shifting away from carbon-intensive industries like iron and steel towards services, while seeking to maintain a robust 6.5 per cent GDP growth rate – the envy of many developed countries.

在随后的一场谈话中，中国总理李克强告诉福特(Ford)首席执行官马克•菲尔茨(Mark Fields)，汽油动力车在中国市场的销售可能在今后二十年被那些“新能源汽车”超过。无论是张高丽的强调还是李克强的谈话都表明，中国计划发展清洁经济，从钢铁等碳排放密集型行业转向服务业，同时寻求保持让许多发达国家感到羡慕的6.5%的强劲GDP增长率。广州能源翻译公司。

The old growth model based on manufacturing exports lifted millions of Chinese out of poverty and madeChinaan economic superpower. But it also brought challenges including a coal-dominated energy mix that was damaging to people’s health. Some recent estimates put the cost of damage to health from poor air quality, much of which is associated with burning fossil fuels, at around 10 per cent ofChina’s GDP.

基于制造业出口的旧增长模式让中国数百万人摆脱了贫困，使得中国成为一个超级经济大国。但它也带来了挑战，包括以煤炭为主导、对人体健康有害的能源构成。最近一些研究报告估计，因空气质量糟糕——很大程度上与化石燃料燃烧有关——损害健康而造成的损失大约相当于中国GDP的10%。

Now, however,China’s policymakers are going to show the world decisively that climate action and economic growth go hand-in-hand. The 13th plan intends to move the country up the economic value chain towards consumption patterns that are less resource-intensive. The plan also makes explicit reference to managing the structural transition for workers in sectors such as coal, steel and iron, where production will be reduced to eliminate over-capacity.

然而，现在中国的政策制定者打算果断向全世界表明，气候举措和经济增长是并行不悖的。“十三五”规划旨在提升中国在经济价值链上的位置，转向不太依赖资源的消费模式。该规划也明确提及管理煤炭和钢铁等行业工人的结构性转型——中国将会削减这些行业的生产以消除过剩产能。广州能源翻译公司。

So what does a greenChinamean for its own economic growth and for the world?

那么绿色中国对其自身的经济增长和世界意味着什么？

First, the climate agenda has taken firm root, with major positive shifts already underway.Chinawill likely over-deliver on its commitments for 2020, which were made at the United Nations climate change summit in Cancún,Mexico, in December 2010. Researchers estimate thatChinais already on track to exceed its target of a 40-45 per cent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2020 and the reduction could be as high as 50 per cent. Next year will also see the world’s largest emissions trading scheme being implemented acrossChina, when the seven pilot trading systems currently in place expand to a national level. And recent research suggests thatChina’s overall emissions will peak well before the year 2030 as indicated as part of its national pledge in the run-up to the United Nations climate change summit in Paris last December.

首先，气候议程获得了坚实基础，现在已经发生了积极的重大变化。2010年12月，中国在墨西哥坎昆举行的联合国气候变化峰会上承诺，到2020年碳强度较2005年水平下降40%-45%，而届时中国的减排成果很可能比承诺的还要好——研究人员估计，中国已经有望超过承诺的目标，到2020年减排幅度可能高达50%。中国明年还将实施全球最大的碳排放交易项目，当前的7个试点交易系统届时将会扩大至全国范围。中国在去年12月的巴黎联合国气候变化大会前夕承诺，将让整体排放水平在2030年前后达到峰值，但最近的研究表明，这一时间将会大大提前。

Second, reaching the renewable energy targets thatChinadeclared in the run-up to Paris translates into a rapid increase in clean energy investment.China’s renewable energy investment in 2015 was $110bn: a 17 per cent increase from the year before and nearly double theUSrenewable investment level.Chinahas installed more wind capacity – 145 GW – than that in theUS,Germany, andIndiacombined. Utilisation is also rising: as part of the total primary energy consumption, the share of non-fossil fuels has also increased from roughly 8 per cent in 2010 to 12 per cent in 2015. Recent data suggest that these investments, as well as successful efforts to reduce coal use, may have helped carbon dioxide emissions slow, or even fall, last year. Indeed,China’s coal consumption seems to have reached its peak in 2014.

其次，实现中国在巴黎气候大会前夕宣布的可再生能源目标，落实为清洁能源投资的快速增加。2015年，中国的可再生能源投资是1100亿美元，同比增长17%，几乎是美国可再生能源投资水平的两倍。中国的风力发电产能（145吉瓦）比美国、德国和印度的总和还要多。利用率也有所提高：非化石燃料占一次能源消费总量的份额，从2010年的约8%升至2015年的12%。最近的数据表明，这些投资以及煤炭使用的成功削减，可能有助于去年的二氧化碳排放减缓增长乃至下降。实际上，中国的煤炭消费似乎在2014年就达到了峰值。广州能源翻译公司。

And third,Chinais developing new and innovative financing mechanisms to drive the low-carbon transition and help reach its new development goals. Worldwide, the adoption of fossil fuel alternatives, even when cost-competitive, is often hindered by the larger up-front investments they require and by high costs of financing, particularly in emerging and developing economies. ButChinahas been overcoming some of these challenges by using well-structured, low-cost debt to finance renewable energy projects. These have been built by state-owned enterprises and financed by the China Development Bank.

第三，中国正在发展新的创新性融资机制来推动低碳化转型，并帮助实现新的发展目标。就全世界范围而言，化石燃料替代物的使用，即便在成本上具有竞争力，也往往因所需的较大规模的先期投资和巨额融资成本而受阻，在新兴和发展中经济体当中尤其如此。但中国通过使用结构合理的低成本债务为可再生能源项目融资，克服了其中的一些挑战。这些项目由国有企业建设，由中国国家开发银行(CDB)提供资金。

There is still a long way to go and the private sector could – and should – play a key role. More private finance will need to be attracted to support green investments – financing that delivers energy savings, builds clean transportation or reduces pollution – with a potentially important role for a national green bonds market.

但中国仍有很长的路要走，私营部门可以、也应当扮演关键角色。中国将需要吸引更多的私人资金支持绿色投资（节约能源、建设清洁交通或减少污染的投资），同时全国性绿色债券市场很可能扮演重要角色。

The necessary market framework is already being built. In December, the People’s Bank established a green bond market, makingChinathe first country to publish guidelines on the issuance of green bonds. The market opened to strong private interest in January 2016. The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Company raised $3.1bn, with the bank paying 3 per cent annual interest on its three-year bonds, a lower rate than the central bank benchmark for similarly-structured commercial bonds.

中国已经在建设必要的市场框架。去年12月，中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)建立了绿色债券市场，这让中国成为首个发布绿色债券发行指引的国家。绿色债券市场在2016年1月开放，吸引了私人资本的强烈兴趣。上海浦东发展银行(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank)通过发行3年期绿色债券筹集了31亿美元资金，年利率3%，低于央行为类似结构的商业债券制定的基准利率。广州能源翻译公司。

China’s green bonds market is expected to grow to $230bn within the next five years. That is already an impressive total but short of the $450bn annually of clean energy investment needed for the next five years. The good news is that interest in green bonds is spreading beyond Chinese financial firms. Chinese carmarker BAIC Motor Corporation has reportedly applied for a $740m green bond this year to fund production lines for energy-saving cars. Dirty production is now perceived as risky as the world moves towards low-carbon growth, making green bonds an especially attractive option.

中国的绿色债券市场规模有望在未来5年增长至2300亿美元。这种规模令人印象深刻，但考虑到今后5年所需的每年4500亿美元的清洁能源投资，这种规模还不够用。好消息是，不仅仅只有中国金融企业对绿色债券感兴趣。有报道称，中国汽车制造商北京汽车股份有限公司(BAIC Motor Corporation)今年申请发行7.4亿美元的绿色债券，为节能汽车生产线提供融资。随着世界转向低碳增长，“肮脏生产”现在被视为风险非常大，这让绿色债券成为一个具有特别吸引力的选项。

Growth from green investing could also prove a boon forChina. Ma Jun, chief economist at the People’s Bank of China, estimates that with sufficient financing, demand for green investments could grow 10-15 per cent per year. Realising that potential could mean that 2016 shapes up to be a bellwether year for financing better growth.

来自绿色投资的增长还可能被证明是中国的一个福音。中国人民银行首席经济学家马骏估计，如果有足够的融资，绿色投资需求可能每年增长10%-15%。实现这种潜力可能意味着，2016年很有可能成为开创性的一年，中国将从这一年开始，走上为更优质的增长提供融资的道路。广州能源翻译公司。

Chinahas already made green growth and its financing a key element for its ongoing presidency of the G20. The first meeting of the G20’s Green Finance Study Group was held in Beijing in January this year; in April, at meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, the group was commissioned to come up with specific options for developing green banking and scaling-up the green bond market among other actions.

中国已经让绿色增长及其融资成为20国集团(G20)会议的主要议题（中国担任今年的G20轮值主席国）。G20的绿色金融研究小组(Green Finance Study Group)今年1月在北京举行了首次会议；今年4月，在G20成员国财长和央行行长会议上，绿色金融研究小组受托拿出具体措施，发展绿色银行业、扩大绿色债券市场以及实施其他举措。

Chinais driving for sustainable growth, increases in living standards and reductions in poverty that can last, both at home and as a global leader. And whereChinagoes today, many other countries can quickly and successfully follow.

无论是在国内还是作为全球领军者，中国正在努力实现可持续增长，实现持久的生活水平提高和脱贫。中国今天的成功经验，可能很快被其他许多国家效仿。

Nicholas Stern is I.G. Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Co-Chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.

本文作者是伦敦政治经济学院(LSE) IG帕特尔经济与政府学教授(I.G. Patel Professor of Economics and Government)、全球经济与气候委员会(Global Commission on the Economy and Climate)联合主席

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