广州陪同翻译公司：与FT共进午餐：詹姆斯•贝克

Lunch with the FT: James Baker

与FT共进午餐：詹姆斯•贝克

广州陪同翻译公司：现年86岁的贝克是唯一担任过白宫幕僚长、财长和国务卿的美国人，像他这样的共和党元老会排斥特朗普吗？

Shortly after James Addison Baker III was named the 61stUSsecretary of state, an up-and-coming Israeli diplomat by the name of Benjamin Netanyahu asked a friend of Baker’s what made him tick. Simple, came the reply: just watch him hunting wild turkey in south Texas.

就在詹姆斯•艾迪生•贝克三世(James Addison Baker III)被任命为美国第61任国务卿之后不久，一位名叫本杰明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的很有前途的以色列外交官问贝克的一位朋友，贝克的驱动力是什么？回答是，很简单：只要看看他在德克萨斯南部捕猎野生火鸡的情景就知道了。广州陪同翻译公司。

“He gets up at 3.30am-4am. Smears camo paint over his face. Waits patiently in the bush. The heat’s rising, all sorts of animals are crawling up his leg and biting,” the friend recalled, “Baker doesn’t move, not even an eyebrow, and then: Boom! He blows its ass off.”

这位朋友回忆道：“他凌晨3点半到4点起床。脸上涂上迷彩。耐心地在灌木从中等待。随着气温上升，各种各样的动物爬上他的腿并叮咬他。贝克一动不动，连眉头也不皱一下。接着就‘呯’的一声，他打中了火鸡的屁股。”

As the Israelis discovered, patience, along with an acute sense of power, are the qualities which made Baker between 1980 and 1993 one of the most powerful men in Washington, alongside Presidents Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush. He is the only American to have served as White House chief of staff, treasury secretary and secretary of state. At 86, says a long-serving Texan aide, “he’s still strong as a horse and kicks like a mule.”

正如以色列人所发现的，正是耐心和对权力的敏锐感觉这两大品质，令贝克在1980年到1993年期间成为华盛顿最有实权的人物之一，与罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)和乔治•HW•布什(George HW Bush)两位总统不相上下。他是唯一一位曾担任过白宫幕僚长、财政部长和国务卿的美国人。一位曾长期为他服务的德克萨斯助理说，86岁高龄的“他仍然像匹马一样强壮，像骡子一样有力”。 广州陪同翻译公司。

But, in 2016, the world according to James Baker and the rest of the Republican establishment has turned upside down. Donald Trump has demolished all rivals for the presidential nomination, including Jeb Bush, scion of the dynasty to which Baker has remained loyal all of his 46-year political life.

然而，詹姆斯•贝克和其他共和党建制派所熟悉的世界，在2016年已乾坤颠倒。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)已击败了竞争共和党总统候选人的所有对手，包括贝克在46年政治生涯中始终忠于的布什王朝的后裔——杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)。

Many Washington Republicans view Trump as a narcissistic demagogue, a mortal threat to the party. The question is whether elder statesmen such as Baker declare him persona non grata and vacate the field to Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee; or whether they try to finesse his positions in pursuit of “Responsible Trump”?

华盛顿的许多共和党人将特朗普视为自恋的民意煽动者，对党构成致命威胁。问题在于，像贝克这样的元老级政治家是会宣称特朗普是不受欢迎的人，宁愿把白宫让给民主党推定总统提名人希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)；还是会试图微调他的立场，打造“负责任的特朗普”？ 广州陪同翻译公司。

It is 25 years since I first interviewed Baker at the state department as the FT’s Person of the Year. The Cold War was over.Americastood at the pinnacle of power. Now I am in the offices of Baker Botts, the Houston family law firm whose roots go back to 1840. Phone calls about the terms of our interview have been a tad fraught. Baker, who has managed five presidential campaigns, is a master of control: self-control, control of others.

自从我第一次在美国国务院采访被评为英国《金融时报》当年年度人物的贝克以来，时间已过去了25年。那时冷战已经结束。美国站在权力的顶峰。如今，我正身处贝克博茨律师事务所(Baker Botts)的办公室。这个休斯顿家族律师事务所的历史可以追溯到1840年。有关我们这次访谈具体条款的电话往来有点让人心烦意乱。曾五次掌管总统选战的贝克是一位控制大师：他既擅长自控，也能控制他人。

“I’m sorry about all that,” he says, indicating that Trump is no longer off limits, though his two conversations with the billionaire real estate developer must remain private. The first was last March when Trump called Baker shortly after he had delivered a eulogy for Nancy Reagan in California. This led to a (supposedly) secret half-hour meeting at the Washington offices of Jones Day, the law firm, when Trump slipped in undetected through a basement entrance.

他表示特朗普不再是个禁忌话题，尽管他与这位亿万富豪房地产开发商的两次谈话必须保密，他说：“对此我深感抱歉。”两次谈话的第一次发生在今年3月。当时，贝克刚刚在加利福尼亚州发表了缅怀南希•里根(Nancy Reagan)的悼词，特朗普给贝克打了个电话。这个电话带来了（本应）保密的半小时会晤，地点在众达律师事务所(Jones Day)在华盛顿的办公室，特朗普悄悄地通过一个地下室入口抵达。广州陪同翻译公司。

News of the meeting leaked — a capital offence in Baker’s book. He appears to bear no grudge. “Like many people, I was surprised by the size of Trump’s victory. It rang a bell the way Reagan came up in 1976 . . . I remember all the establishment Republicans thought that Reagan was a grade-B movie actor who would get us into a nuclear war and who was extraordinarily dangerous. You are seeing some of the same phenomenon.” He looks me in the eye. “But I am not comparing Reagan with Trump. I am not suggesting the two are the same.”

那次会晤的消息泄露了出去，这在贝克的词典里可是死罪。不过他似乎并未对此耿耿于怀。他盯着我说：“和许多人一样，特朗普的胜利如此之大让我意外。这让人想起了里根在1976年的崛起……我记得所有建制派共和党人都认为里根是位二流电影演员，他会让我们卷入核战争，是个极度危险的人。如今，你正在见证某些相同的现象。不过，我并不是把里根与特朗普相提并论。我并没有暗示他们俩是同类人。”

After a brief tour of his office, mementos and photos of the Bush and Reagan presidencies sitting under mounted Tanzanian water buffalo, we step out into the steamy heat for a five-minute walk to our luncheon destination in downtown Houston: the Coronado Club.

在他的办公室里，在墙上挂着的坦桑尼亚水牛下面，放置着布什和里根总统任期内的各种纪念品和相片。在短暂地游览过他的办公室后，我们踏入湿热的户外，步行五分钟，来到休斯顿市中心的午餐地点：科罗纳多俱乐部(Coronado Club)。广州陪同翻译公司。

Named after the mid-16th century Spanish conquistador, and founded in 1956, the Coronado is part-Mad Men set, part-English gentleman’s club. The smell of stale cigar smoke hangs in the air, alongside rustic paintings, elegant fireplaces and a bust of Winston Churchill.

科罗纳多俱乐部得名于16世纪中叶的西班牙征服者，成立于1956年，店内装潢有点《广告狂人》(Mad Men)的风格，又有点英国绅士俱乐部的味道。空气中弥漫着陈腐的雪茄烟味道，墙上挂着质朴的绘画，装有风格雅致的壁炉，还有一尊温斯顿•丘吉尔(Winston Churchill)的半身像。

“Yup, that’s Churchill but we ain’t sending him home,” says Baker, unable to resist a dig at President Obama for removing a similar bust from the Oval Office in favour of Martin Luther King.

贝克说：“没错，那是丘吉尔，不过我们不会把他送回英国。”在这句话里，他忍不住调侃了奥巴马(Obama)总统把椭圆办公室中的邱吉尔半身像换成马丁•路德•金(Martin Luther King)的决定。广州陪同翻译公司。

. . .

……

Baker motions to an empty room at the back of the club. He looks good for 86. Tall, handsome and trim, the former marine and top corporate lawyer retains the command presence of old. “I’m still active,” he says, “especially upstairs.” He is wearing a dark suit, white monogrammed shirt and the trademark turquoise green tie. Aides like to recall he started wearing a green tie when he was treasury secretary and his signature was on the dollar bill.

贝克带我走向俱乐部后面的一间包房。对于一个86岁的人来说，他看起来相当精神。这位前海军陆战队员和顶级公司律师高个、英俊而修长，举止间依然保留着往日的威严。他说：“我仍然活跃——尤其是在上楼时。”他身着深色西装和印着字母的白衬衫，戴着招牌式的绿松石绿色的领带。他的助理喜欢回忆说，他佩戴绿色领带的历史，始于他担任财政部长，把名字签在美元上的时候。

A waiter recites the menu. Baker cuts him off. “I want the trio salad: shrimp, crabmeat and fresh fruit.”

在服务生背诵菜单的时候，贝克打断了他。“我要点那份虾、蟹肉和新鲜水果三合一的沙拉。”

“Yes sir, yes sir,” the waiter stammers.

服务生结巴着说：“好的，先生。好的，先生。”

“What’ll you have, Larnelle?”

“你要点什么，拉内尔(Larnelle)？”

“I’ll have the trio salad. No problem.”

“我要三合一沙拉。没问题。”

Baker opens with a question: willBritainstay in the European Union? Well, the Remain camp is winning the economic argument, I reply. Obama’s trip to London helped. Then Leave was forced to admit thatBritainoutside the EU would no longer enjoy access to the single market. So they argued for a trade deal with the EU on the lines ofAlbania,Bosnia,SerbiaandUkraine.

贝克用一个问题开场：英国会留在欧盟吗？这个嘛，留欧阵营在经济方面占上风，我答道。奥巴马伦敦之行有所帮助。当时，退欧派被迫承认，退欧之后英国将不再享受单一市场准入。所以，他们主张按照阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚、塞尔维亚和乌克兰的做法与欧盟签订贸易协议。广州陪同翻译公司。

“Albania? You’re kiddin’ me,” exclaims Baker, “Boris Johnston [sic] said that? Really?” Actually, it was Michael Gove, the pro-Brexit justice secretary. Baker looks flummoxed. The name “Gove” clearly never made it to Texas. He declined to sign a Downing Street-inspired letter from former US Treasury secretaries and secretaries of state, believing it could be seen as undue interference and backfire. “Deep down I hope you stay in,” he concludes.

“阿尔巴尼亚？你在开玩笑吧，”贝克大声说道，“鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)这么说的？当真？”事实上，这是支持退欧的司法部长迈克尔•戈夫(Michael Gove)说的。贝克看起来十分困惑。戈夫的名声显然还没有传播到德克萨斯州。他拒绝在唐宁街授意、美国多名前财长和国务卿的信上签字，他认为此举可能被视为不当干预，反而会适得其反。“在内心深处，我希望英国留下，”他总结道。

Our appetiser-cum-main course arrives. The crab and jumbo shrimp sit in neat white dishes, along with a novel combination: cottage cheese.

我们的开胃菜兼主菜上了。蟹肉和大虾盛在简洁的白色盘子上，搭配上一种新奇组合：茅屋芝士(cottage cheese)。

“Richard Nixon used to put ketchup on his cottage cheese,” says Baker, “What you need is olive oil, salt, pepper and Tabasco.” The taste is smooth and tangy, especially with fresh crabmeat washed down with iced tea.

“理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)曾经把番茄酱撒在茅屋芝士上，”贝克说道。“你需要的是橄榄油、盐、胡椒和塔巴斯科辣沙司。”这道菜口感滑润，味道浓厚，特别是就着冰茶下肚的新鲜蟹肉。广州陪同翻译公司。

We turn to American politics, which Baker was encouraged to take up after his first wife, Mary, died of cancer at the age of 38. George HW Bush, his old tennis doubles partner in Houston, invited Baker to get involved in his losing bid for a US Senate seat in 1970.

我们的话题转向美国政治——在他第一任妻子玛丽(Mary) 38岁时因癌症去世后，有人鼓励贝克进入政界。1970年，贝克在休斯敦的网球搭档乔治·HW·布什(George HW Bush)邀请他协助自己竞选美国参议员，当时老布什的选情告急。

Once a necessary distraction, politics became a passion. In 1975, thanks to a quiet word from Bush, Baker was invited to join the Ford administration. After managing Gerald Ford’s losing campaign against Jimmy Carter in 1976, he helped to run three successful campaigns for the White House, for Reagan and Bush, until he ran out of luck in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat his old friend.

进入政界原本是为了转移注意力，后来却成了他钟情的事业。1975年，由于老布什递了句话，贝克应邀进入福特政府。在帮助杰拉尔德•福特(Gerald Ford)竞选失败，输给吉米•卡特(Jimmy Carter)后，他成功辅佐里根和布什三次入主白宫，直到1992年他的好运嘎然而止，比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)击败了他的好友老布什。

Baker recalls his father’s admonition when growing up in Texas: work hard, study . . . and stay out of politics! He took the role of backroom operator: the lawyer with the steel-trap mind who could count delegates and cut deals.

贝克在德州长大，他回忆起父亲的告诫：努力工作、学习……远离政治！他扮演起幕后操盘手的角色：这位心思敏捷的律师可以盘点选举人票，然后做交易。广州陪同翻译公司。

Reagan loyalists viewed him as a “Bushie” in 1980, but he was too smart to ignore. As Reagan’s first White House chief of staff he was the man who got things done for him: social security, tax reform, a landmark free trade agreement withCanada; and German unification under George HW Bush.

1980年，里根的拥趸把他视为“布什派”，但他很聪明，没人敢把他晾在一边。作为里根首位白宫幕僚长，他是为里根搞定一切的人：社会保障、税制改革、与加拿大签订里程碑式的自由贸易协议；以及老布什任期内的德国统一。

Even after retirement, he remains a go-to troubleshooter: he led George W Bush’s successful legal battle in Florida in 2000 to secure the presidency, fighting all the way to the Supreme Court. “He has a world-class strategic brain,” says an old colleague, “but he’s also a brilliant negotiator.”

即使在退休后，他仍然是解决麻烦的能手：2000年，他一路战斗到最高法院(Supreme Court)，帮助乔治·W·布什(George W Bush)赢得了佛罗里达州的法律战，使其入主白宫。“他有世界一流的战略头脑，”一位老同事称，“但他也是出色的谈判专家。”

I ask Baker what has gone wrong in Washington since he pulled the strings.

我问贝克，相比他在华盛顿运筹帷幄的时代，那里出了什么问题。广州陪同翻译公司。

“The environment is much uglier than it was. Compromise has become a dirty word. What people don’t understand is that Ronald Reagan was a pragmatist. We judge our presidents by what they get accomplished. Reagan used to say: “Jim, I’d rather get 80 per cent of what I want than go over the cliff with my flag flying.”

“现在的氛围比过去丑陋得多。妥协成了肮脏的字眼。人们不明白的是，当年罗纳德•里根是一个务实主义者。我们以政绩来评判我们的总统。里根过去常说：“吉姆，我宁愿得到80%自己想要的东西，也不愿高举着自己的大旗跳下悬崖。”

. . .

. . .

Today, bipartisan dealmaking is a distant memory. Baker blames a nation divided between red and blue states, where the centre has “evaporated” and comity does not sell. In Texan, comity sounds like comedy. Baker laughs. “Yes, well comedy does sell, but I mean comity.”

如今，两党合作成了久远的记忆。贝克指责美国已沦为一个蓝州和红州对立的国家，中间立场“不复存在”，礼让不再有市场。对于德州人，礼让听起来就像笑话。贝克笑出了声。“是的，好的喜剧有市场，但我说的是礼让。”

An index finger jabs in my face. “You guys have also become players. You don’t do objective reporting of the facts. When you turn on MSNBC, you’re watching the house organ of the Democratic party. When you tune into Fox News, you’re listening to the house organ of the Republican party.”

他用食指指了指我的脸。“你们这些人也成了玩家。你们并不是客观地报告事实。当你打开微软全国广播公司(MSNBC)时，你就像是在观看民主党的官方频道。当你调到福克斯新闻(Fox News)时，你听到的是共和党的官方声音。”广州陪同翻译公司。

I correct him. Fox News has championed Trump more than anyone. Baker concedes Trump has done a stunning job in attracting free coverage while barely spending a dime on TV adverts.

我纠正了他。福克斯新闻对特朗普的拥护无人能及。贝克承认，特朗普表现惊人，他极其擅长于吸引免费报道，而几乎没有花钱投放电视广告。

As a Bush loyalist, Baker is too discreet to talk about the abject failure of Jeb Bush’s campaign. Insiders say he was disappointed that the former Florida governor spent so much time talking about the past and the Bush dynasty rather than his own plans for the future. Trump’s “low energy” jibe struck a chord with voters, like his invective about immigration and blue-collar workers losing out in the age of globalisation. “That’s the thing about Trump. As much as we might disagree with his position, the voters don’t.” he says. “The question is whether a ‘faceless’ establishment decides where our party goes or do the voters.”

作为布什家族的忠实拥趸，贝克十分谨慎，不愿讨论杰布•布什的竞选惨败。内部人士称，这位佛罗里达前州长耗费太多时间讨论过去和布什王朝、而非自己对未来的计划，这让贝克失望。特朗普的“低能量”讥讽引发选民共鸣，就像他猛烈抨击移民和蓝领工人在全球化时代吃亏一样。“这就是特朗普的秘诀。或许我们不认同他的立场，但是选民不一样。”他称，“问题在于由谁决定我们党的走向，是‘无个性’的建制派，还是选民？”

Baker comes from one of Texas’ oldest families. He may even count Thomas Jefferson as a distant relative. Like Jefferson, he remains a firm believer in American democracy, where alliances, foreign entanglements and policy must carry popular support. As secretary of state, Baker was a master at building coalitions at home and abroad. If he is appalled at Trump’s alliance-bashing, he is not letting on. “Almost all Americans agree: we cannot carry 100 per cent of the load . . . The final arbiter of democracy is the will of the people and if you cannot carry the people you will lose the policy. That’s what happened inVietnamandIraqin 2003.”

贝克来自德州最古老的家族之一。他甚至可以把托马斯•杰斐逊(Thomas Jefferson)算作远房亲戚。就像杰斐逊一样，贝克仍然坚信美国的民主体制——联盟、介入海外事务和政策必须得到公众的支持。担任国务卿时，贝克是在国内外建立联盟的大师。如果说他对特朗普抨击联盟的立场感到惊骇，那么他没有表现出来。“差不多所有美国人都同意：我们不能承受100%的负担……民主的最终裁决者是人民的意愿，如果你无法得到人民的支持，你的政策就站不住脚。这就是在当年的越南和2003年的伊拉克所发生的事情。”广州陪同翻译公司。

Like George HW Bush, Baker was apprehensive about the younger Bush’s decision to go to war but he did not go public with criticism. Once theUSwas formally committed, he set out the risks of toppling Saddam and occupyingIraq. Today, he criticises defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld for failing to plan properly. As for vice-president Dick Cheney, “We disagree on a lot of things, but we are still friends.”

与老布什一样，贝克对小布什出兵伊拉克的决定忧心忡忡，但他没有公开批评。在美国正式出兵后，他列出了推翻萨达姆并占领伊拉克的种种风险。现在，他批评时任国防部长唐纳德•拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)未能好好谋划。至于时任副总统迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)，“我们在许多事情上有分歧，但我们仍然是朋友”。

. . .

……

By contrast, the first Gulf war in 1991 was, in his words, “text book”: a vital national interest in ejecting Saddam Hussein’s army from oil-rich Kuwait, a limited war largely financed by allies, led by Saudi Arabia; and legitimacy conferred by favourable votes in Congress and the UN Security Council.

相比之下，用他的话来说，1991年发动的第一次海湾战争是“教科书”：将萨达姆•侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)的军队赶出石油资源丰富的科威特，符合美国的关键国家利益；那是一场基本上由沙特为首的盟友出资的有限战争；而且由美国国会和联合国安理会投票通过，因而具有合法性。

Baker argues for “selective engagement”, a cold-eyed assessment of national interest and a willingness to use all tools — diplomatic, economic, political and military. “It’s too bad we cannot practise foreign policy according to the principles of Mother Teresa, but the real world is one of painful choices and trade-offs.”

贝克主张“选择性参与”，冷静评估国家利益，并且愿意动用全部工具（外交、经济、政治和军事手段）。“我们不可能按照特蕾莎修女(Mother Teresa)的原则来践行外交政策，那很可惜，但现实世界就是一个充满痛苦选择和取舍的地方。”广州陪同翻译公司。

My painful choice is whether to opt for dessert. Does the Coronado do pecan pie? Baker chortles: “We call it pee-kahn pie, not peekin’ pie. That’s like peekin’ round the corner. Reminds me of when I went shootin’ inEngland. People would say: ‘Marvellous shot . . . Well done you.’” Baker is a good mimic. He’s an even better political operative. Baker’s strength was his relationship with Bush Snr. No one came between him and the president. No secretary of state has since come close to enjoying that power and authority.

我的痛苦选择是要不要点甜品。科罗纳多俱乐部有核桃派(pecan pie)吗？贝克哈哈大笑着说：“我们把它称为皮坎派(pee-kahn pie)，不是皮金派(peekin' pie)。那听上去像是‘在拐角处偷看’(peekin’ round the corner)。这让我想起在英格兰打猎的时候。人们会说：‘枪法真棒……打得好。’”贝克擅长模仿。他更是一个优秀的政治高手。当年贝克的优势在于他与老布什的关系。没有人能离间他与总统的关系。自他以后的所有国务卿都没有那种实权和权威。

“Hillary Clinton was never given anything to do. She was just there [at the state department] to run for president,” says Baker. He gives John Kerry decent marks for pushing the Middle East peace process, but notes acidly that Kerry was not even consulted when Obama pulled back from the bombing of Syria, retreating in 2013 from his “red line” of a year earlier if President Assad used chemical weapons.

贝克表示：“希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)从未接到像样的任务。她只是在（国务院）那个位置准备竞选总统。”他赞扬了约翰•克里(John Kerry)推动中东和平进程的努力，但尖锐地指出，奥巴马在取消轰炸叙利亚之前根本没有征询过克里的意见；2013年，奥巴马曾对阿萨德总统动用化学武器的可能行为划出“红线”。

This violated a principle of American power. “The president can never threaten anything that he does not intend to carry out. Never. Never.”

这侵犯了美国实力的一条原则。“美国总统绝不能发出他不打算实施的威胁，绝不能，绝不能”。 广州陪同翻译公司。

As my chocolate mousse arrives, along with a cappuccino, Baker checks his watch: a private plane is waiting to fly him to Washington.

这时我的巧克力慕斯还有卡布奇诺咖啡到了，贝克看了看表：一架私人飞机正等着把他送到华盛顿。

He calls for the bill. I advise him that the FT pays. No deal.

他叫着侍者结账。我对他说，得由英国《金融时报》买单。他坚决不肯。

I offer to make a donation to the Baker Institute, the public policy think-tank he set up at Rice University when he retired from Washington and went back to law in Houston. Deal.

我提出捐款给贝克研究所(Baker Institute)，后者是贝克从华盛顿退休回到休斯顿的律所后，在莱斯大学(Rice University)创办的公共政策智库。这没问题。

Who was the toughest adversary he faced? Probably Li Peng, the Chinese premier who presided over the Tiananmen Square massacre. (“Hafez al-Assad ofSyriawasn’t a piece of cake, either.”) Nor were the Soviets, though Baker says Mikhail Gorbachev and Eduard Shevardnadze will be looked upon favourably by history because they renounced the use of force when communism was collapsing in eastern Europe andRussia.

他遇到的最强硬对手是谁？可能是在天安门广场镇压期间担任中国总理的李鹏（叙利亚的哈菲兹•阿萨德(Hafez al-Assad)也非好对付的人）。苏联人也不是，尽管贝克表示，米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)和爱德华·谢瓦尔德纳泽(Eduard Shevardnadze)将会在历史上留下不错的声名，因为他们在东欧和俄罗斯共产党政权垮台的时候谴责动用武力。

And Abenomics inJapan? Baker gives a thumbs down — literally. He worries about terminally tepid growth in the eurozone. (He always had doubts about the lack of a fiscal union to accompany monetary union). He bemoans the lack of international economic policy co-ordination, his signature achievement as treasury secretary. He thinks the Group of 20 forum is unworkable. The number one foreign policy challenge for theUSisChina, he says.

日本的安倍经济学怎么样？贝克向下竖了竖拇指，表示不能认同。他担心欧元区一蹶不振的疲弱增长（他始终怀疑在缺乏财政联盟的情况下推进货币联盟的前景）。他哀叹如今缺乏国际经济政策协作——那种协作是他在担任财长期间取得的标志性成就。他认为20国集团(G20)论坛不会管用。他说，美国面临的头号外交政策挑战是中国。广州陪同翻译公司。

“We have to be smart enough to manage the differences,” he says.

他说：“我们不得不足够聪明来管控分歧。”

And how might a President Trump manage those differences, I ask. Baker offers general advice only.

我问道，“特朗普如果当上总统可能会如何管控这些分歧？”贝克只是泛泛而谈。

“Isolationism and protectionism won’t work. Don’t talk no trade deals; make a better deal. Don’t talk about makingJapanandSouth Koreanuclear powers. Don’t talk about negotiating down the American debt.”

“孤立主义和保护主义将会行不通。别说不要贸易协定；签署一个更好的协定。别说让日本和韩国成为拥有核武的国家。别说谈判减记美国债务。”

I try one last shot. AreAmericaand its institutions strong enough to survive any shock, even one as seismic as Donald Trump in the White House?

我抛出最后一个问题。美国及其机构是否强大到足以抵御任何冲击，即便唐纳德•特朗普这样引起巨大轰动的人入主白宫？

“Yes,” declares Baker, emphatically.

贝克斩钉截铁地表示：“是的。”

“I won’t get my panties in a wedge because of what I am hearing from the political candidates. What they say in the campaign and what they do once they are in the White House are not the same thing. I don’t care who wins, whoever gets to the White House. Presidents can do a lot but they can only do so much through the system of checks and balances.

“我不会因这些政治候选人说什么而发火。他们在竞选期间说的话和他们一旦入主白宫做的事不是一回事。我不关心谁赢，谁入主白宫。总统可以做许多事情，但他们通过制衡体系能够做到的事情只有这么多。”

“We are a country of laws, limited by bureaucracy and the power structure in Washington. Presidents are not unilateral rulers. If they did not know that, they will find out soon enough.”

“我们是一个法治国家，受到华盛顿官僚和权力结构的限制。总统不是单方面的统治者。如果他们不知道这一点，那么他们很快就会明白过来。”

Thus speaks Washington’s wise man. It would be a brave man or woman to challenge him, whether they go by the name of Clinton or Trump.

这就是华盛顿的智者说的话。挑战他的人将会非常勇敢，无论是希拉里还是特朗普。

Lionel Barber is editor of the FT

莱昂内尔•巴贝尔(Lionel Barber)是英国《金融时报》主编

广州陪同翻译公司