The Brexit contagion could consume the French elite next
法国也有可能效法英国退欧
广州英语翻译公司：陆克：法国将与德国结成同盟拯救欧盟？还是会紧随英国之后，成为欧洲一体化项目的掘墓人？后者可能性更大。
After the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU, France is now being forced to look at itself in the mirror, and ask whether it still wishes to belong to the community of nations initiated by two Frenchmen, Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman, half a century ago. Will France rally around the European ideal and forge an alliance with Germany to save the EU? Or will it follow the UK and become a gravedigger of the European project? The latter is more likely.
在英国就欧盟(EU)成员国身份举行公投之后，法国如今也不得不照照镜子，问自己是否希望继续留在这个由两名法国人——让•莫内(Jean Monnet)和罗伯特•舒曼(Robert Schuman)——在半个世纪前发起设立的国家共同体。法国将拥护欧洲一体化理想、与德国结成同盟拯救欧盟？还是将紧随英国之后，成为欧洲一体化项目的掘墓人？后者可能性更大。广州英语翻译公司。
France faces a harsh and divisive campaign leading up to the presidential election in May 2017. After the vote for Brexit, it is hard to imagine that the main candidates will not make Europe one of their main priorities.
在通往2017年5月总统大选的道路上，法国必须经过一场残酷、制造分裂的选战。在英国公投赞成脱欧后，法国诸位候选人怎么可能不把欧洲问题作为一大筹码？
Meanwhile, the Pew Research Center has recently provided striking new data on what the French think of Europe. Pew’s report shows that 61 per cent of French people hold unfavourable views of the EU, against 38 per cent who view it favourably. Sixty per cent of those surveyed said they wished that the French government would focus on the country’s own problems, as opposed to “helping other countries” (36 per cent). Fifty-two per cent said France should pursue its own national interests.
与此同时，皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)最近提供了关于法国人怎么看欧洲的新数据，颇为引人注目。其报告显示，61%的法国人对欧盟抱有不好的看法，只有38%的人对欧盟有好感。60%的被调查者表示希望法国政府着重抓本国的问题，而不是“帮助其他国家”（赞成后一种做法的人占36%）。52%的人表示法国应致力于自身的国家利益。广州英语翻译公司。
The main question for the French political elite is the following: should it open the Pandora’s box of a referendum on France’s continued membership of the EU?
法国的政治精英们面临的主要问题是：应不应该打开潘多拉盒子，就法国是否留在欧盟开展公投？
With the exception of two candidates of the extreme right and far left, Marine Le Pen of the National Front and the former Socialist minister Jean-Luc Mélenchon, none of the politicians aspiring to be elected president in 2017 — the current occupant of the Elysée Palace, François Hollande, his centre-right predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy and centrist ex-prime minister Alain Juppé — anticipated the shocking outcome of the British referendum.
除了极右和极左的两名候选人，即国民阵线(National Front)的马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen，见上图)和前社会党人士、曾任部长的让-吕克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)，所有希望在2017年登上总统宝座的政治家，包括爱丽舍宫现任主人弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)、他的中右翼前任尼古拉斯•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)以及持中间立场的前总理阿兰•朱佩(Alain Juppé)，都没有预料到英国公投会有如此震惊世人的结果。广州英语翻译公司。
Of mainstream politicians, only Bruno Le Maire, the so-called “third man” of the centre-right Les Républicains and a former minister for Europe, has called for a referendum on redefining the European project. (In an interview on June 27, Mr Juppé said it would be “irresponsible” to hold such a plebiscite in the near future.)
在主流政客中，只有中右翼共和党(Les Républicains)的所谓“第三人”、曾任主管欧洲事务的部长的布鲁诺•勒梅尔(Bruno Le Maire)呼吁过就重新定义欧洲一体化项目举行公投。（朱佩在6月27日接受采访时表示，在近期内举行这样一场公投是“不负责任的”。）
Writing in Le Monde in May, Mr Le Maire said: “Europe does not make us dream any more.” France needs to “heal the wounds” of the 2005 referendum in which 55 per cent of voters rejected the proposed European constitution.
今年5月，勒梅尔曾在《世界报》(Le Monde)上写道：“欧洲再也不能让我们拥有梦想。”法国必须“治愈”2005年公投留下的“伤口”，那次公投中55%的选民反对《欧洲宪法条约》。
Many commentators regard that referendum as a key moment in recent French and European history. One recalls Jacques Chirac, then president, looking at a loss when confronted with young and middle-aged jobseekers during a live television programme. Deep misgivings about France’s future in Europe were already gathering.
许多评论员将那次公投视为法国和欧洲近代历史上的一个关键时刻。有一位还提起了在一次电视直播节目中，时任法国总统雅克•希拉克(Jacques Chirac)在面对年轻和中年求职者时一脸不知所措的情景。对于法国在欧洲的未来，人们在那个时候就已是深怀担忧了。广州英语翻译公司。
Today, there is deep scepticism about the whole European project. And were they given the opportunity in a referendum, voters could well administer the kind of treatment to their elites that their counterparts in Britain have just dished out to theirs. Although France is not an insular country, it faces an uncertain future. As has happened in the UK, “Europe” has become the scapegoat for those who feel they have not benefited from globalisation.
如今，社会上存在着一股对整个欧洲一体化项目的深刻怀疑。一旦获得公投机会，选民们很可能像英国民众那样对待本国精英阶层。虽然法国并不是个岛国，但它也面临着不确定的未来。正如英国所发生的情况，对于那些觉得自己没有从全球化中受益的人们来说，“欧洲”已经成为替罪羊。
The Pew survey says that 66 per cent of French people think that the EU has failed them economically. The financial crisis of 2008 has left terrible scars. Between 2007 and 2009, unemployment rose by two percentage points. It is around 10 per cent today. The age groups most affected are the young (those between 18 and 25) and the over 50s. It is likely that they would vote for “Frexit” in a referendum.
皮尤的调查表示，66%的法国人认为，从经济层面来说欧盟让他们失望。2008年的金融危机已留下可怕的伤疤。在2007年到2009年之间，法国失业率上升了两个百分点。如今，法国的失业率在10%左右。受影响最大的是18岁到25岁年龄段的年轻人，以及50岁以上的群体。若举行公投这些人可能会投票支持“法国脱欧”(Frexit)。广州英语翻译公司。
Populists are rejoicing. The National Front presents itself as a viable alternative to mainstream parties. Ms Le Pen has already called for a British-style referendum. The far-left Front de Gauche (FG), which has close ties to the trade union that has led strikes against labour market reforms, will push for exiting the EU.
民粹主义者正欢欣鼓舞。法国国民阵线自我标榜为可替代主流政党的可行选择。马琳•勒庞已呼吁开展一次英国式公投。与发起多次罢工抗议劳动市场改革的工会关系密切、极左的法国左翼阵线(Front de Gauche)将致力于推动法国脱离欧盟。
Mr Mélenchon, one of the FG’s leaders, has announced that he will run for president next year on a Eurosceptic platform. He said that Brexit is “first and foremost the failure of the German government, of capitalism, and of successive subservient French governments”.
法国左翼阵线领导人之一梅朗雄已宣布，将凭借欧洲怀疑论的竞选纲领，参加明年的总统大选。他说，英国脱欧“首先是德国政府、资本主义以及卑躬屈膝的历届法国政府的失败”。
Politicians in these far-right and far-left parties have no more government experience than the triumphant leaders of the Brexit camp, Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. But unless mainstream politicians can find remedies for France’s malaise, voters may well give the populists a chance. It is time for French elites to take action. If they do not, they risk suffering the same fate as David Cameron.
比起获胜的英国脱欧阵营领导人奈杰尔•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)和鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)，法国这些极右翼和极左翼政党的政客并没有更丰富的执政经验。但是，除非主流政客能找到法国问题的药方，否则选民很可能会给这些民粹主义者一个机会。法国精英们是时候采取行动了。如果他们什么都不做，他们可能会遭遇和戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)同样的命运。
The writer is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution
注：本文作者是布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)访问学者。
