Italy may be the next domino to fall
意大利：下一块倒下的多米诺骨牌？
广州意大利语翻译公司：英国退欧可能成为欧盟解体的导火索。意大利今年10月的公投虽与欧盟无关，但其危险性不亚于英国的退欧公投。
The UK’s vote to leave the EU will not only break the ties between the UK and the bloc, and probably between Scotland and England — it has the potential to destroy the eurozone. This is not the issue at the forefront of people’s minds right now. But it is potentially the biggest impact of all. I am convinced Brexit’s consequences will be neutral to moderately negative for the UK but devastating for the EU.
英国投票离开欧盟不仅会打破英国与欧盟之间的关系、可能切断苏格兰和英格兰之间的纽带，而且可能会摧毁欧元区。这不是人们头脑中此刻最担心的问题。但是这可能是英国退欧所带来的最严重的影响。我相信，英国退欧对英国的影响是中性或者轻微负面的，但是对欧盟来说将是毁灭性的。广州意大利语翻译公司。
The main problem is not other countries wanting to hold EU referendums. The problem is more acute. The next referendum to be held in the EU takes place in Italy in October. It is not about the union but about Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms. The Italian prime minister is taking a gamble which is no less risky than David Cameron did.
主要问题不是其他国家也想进行脱欧公投。现在的问题更严重。欧盟的下一场公投将于10月在意大利举行。那场公投与欧盟无关，而是关于马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi，见上图)的宪法改革。这位意大利总理是在赌博，其危险性不亚于戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)在英国举行脱欧公投。广州意大利语翻译公司。
He is asking the Italians to agree a number of reforms to streamline their political system. The proposals are sensible. But Italians view the referendum as an opportunity for a midterm anti-government vote. Mr Renzi promised he would resign if he loses. If he does, it will have been a monumental error of judgment on the scale of Mr Cameron’s. Opinion polls have been showing a small lead for Yes but they are likely to be as unreliable as those in the UK. My Italian friends are telling me Mr Renzi may well lose, in which case he would either resign immediately or call elections in early 2017.
他希望意大利人同意进行若干项改革来精简他们的政治体系。这些提议是合理的。但是意大利人把此次公投视为一次在本届政府执政期间进行反政府投票的机会。伦齐承诺，如果公投未能通过改革，他将辞去总理一职。如果他真的失败了，这将是一次与卡梅伦所犯错误严重程度相当的巨大的判断性失误。民调显示赞成票略微领先，但是这可能跟英国之前的民调结果一样不可靠。我的意大利朋友告诉我，伦齐很可能失败，在这种情况下他要么立即辞职，要么在2017年初举行大选。广州意大利语翻译公司。
The implications of Brexit for Italy are extremely troubling for three reasons. First, consider the economic impact. Italy’s economy has been in a weak recovery after a long recession. The British vote will have a significant effect on growth in the eurozone. But for Italy this means a reversion to a growth rate to below 1 per cent or worse.
英国退欧对意大利的影响极其麻烦，原因有三。第一，经济影响。在经历长期衰退后，意大利经济复苏乏力。英国退欧将对欧元区经济增长产生严重影响。而对意大利来说，这意味着经济增速重新回到1%以下甚至更糟。
Second, watch out for the Italian banks, which are woefully undercapitalised. A recent scheme to recapitalise the system has been a disappointment. The only options left to save it are a programme under the European Stability Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, which Mr Renzi will surely resist, or a break with a long list of EU rules on competition policy and bank bailouts.
第二，意大利的银行资本严重不足，需要加以小心。最近出台的对银行体系进行资产重组的计划令人失望。拯救意大利的银行只剩下最后的选择：实施基于欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)的计划（伦齐必然会反对），否则意大利银行业只能违反欧盟在竞争政策和银行纾困方面的一长串规定。广州意大利语翻译公司。
Third, and most important, the political impact of a lost referendum will be disastrous. Either Mr Renzi keeps his promise to resign or he limps on to the next election. The technical details of the scenario that would then prevail are complex but the party most likely to benefit is the populist anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Beppe Grillo, its leader, last week reiterated his call for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the eurozone. As the results of the recent mayoral elections in Rome and Turin have shown, Mr Grillo’s party should not be underestimated.
第三点、也是最重要的一点，在公投中遭遇失败将造成灾难性的政治后果。伦齐要么遵守诺言立即辞职，要么苟延残喘挺到下一次选举。那时局面的技术细节将十分复杂，但是最可能受益的政党是反建制的民粹主义政党五星运动党(Five Star Movement)。上周，该党领袖贝佩•格里洛(Beppe Grillo)再次号召意大利就是否留在欧元区进行公投。正如最近罗马和都灵市市长选举结果所显示的那样，不应该低估格里洛领导的五星运动党。
The political dynamic in Italy is not much different from the one in the UK. The electorate is in an insurrectionary mood. The country has had virtually no productivity growth since it joined the euro in 1999. The Italian political establishment has until recently been as dismissive of its chances of losing the referendum as the British establishment was until Friday morning. They are still dismissive of the chances of a Five Star victory — and will be until the moment it happens.
意大利的政治形势与英国没有太大区别。意大利的选民正处于起义情绪中。自从1999年加入欧元区以来，意大利的生产率几乎没有增长。意大利的政治建制派直到最近仍然像英国建制派在上周五早上之前一样，对在公投中失败的可能性不屑一顾。他们仍然认为五星运动党不可能获胜——直到那一刻真的到来。广州意大利语翻译公司。、
In my view, that outcome is at least as probable as Mr Renzi emerging victorious from this mess. The Italian public has reasons to demand fundamental change. Unlike in the UK, unemployment there is high. Mr Renzi’s own administration has failed to break with corruption scandals and, most important of all, has failed to sort out the country’s economy.
在我看来，该结果出现的可能性至少和伦齐以获胜的姿态摆脱这个烂摊子的可能性相当。意大利公众有理由要求根本改变。不同于英国，这里的失业率高企。伦齐政府没能与腐败丑闻划清界限，最重要的是，他们未能理顺意大利的经济。
A Pew Research Center poll on attitudes towards European integration in the largest member states suggests that the Italians and the Greeks view the EU’s economic governance most negatively. I am not surprised.
皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)在几个最大的欧盟成员国就民众对欧洲一体化的态度所做的民调显示，意大利人和希腊人对欧盟经济治理的看法最负面。我并不感到意外。
Nor am I surprised that people are beginning to blame the euro for the economic problems. An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.
人们开始指责是欧元造成了现有的经济问题，对此我也不意外。意大利退出欧元区将在短时间内引发欧元区全面崩溃。广州意大利语翻译公司。
It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash. But my sense is that those who would advocate an Italian departure might even relish bringing down the whole house.
这可能会引发史上最严重的经济冲击，就连2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产和1929年华尔街股灾也不可同日而语。但是我感到，那些主张意大利退出欧元区的人，甚至可能会享受摧毁整个欧元区的感觉。
To prevent such a calamity, EU leaders should seriously consider doing what they have failed to do since 2008: resolve the union’s multiple crises rather than muddle through. And that will have to involve a plan for the political union of the eurozone countries.
为了阻止此类灾难发生，欧盟领导人应该认真考虑去做自2008年以来便一直没有做到的事：解决欧盟的多重危机，而不是试图蒙混过关。这就必须推出关于欧元区国家政治联盟的计划。
Britain is not the cause for any of this. The eurozone and its appallingly weak leaders are to blame. But Brexit may well be the trigger.
这一切都不是英国造成的。欧元区及其软弱得可怕的领导人才是罪魁祸首。但是英国退欧很可能会成为导火索。
