The awkward dance between markets and politics
一场市场和政治的笨拙舞蹈
广州经济翻译公司：在英国政界思考退欧之后该如何是好之际，曾经狙击英镑的索罗斯持有的一套理论，或许有助于梳理这场乱局的逻辑。
George Soros’s name is already forever intertwined with the pound sterling. But the great hedge fund manager who forced the pound out of the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992 has also provided the concepts necessary to explain the awkward dance between the markets and politics, as the British political establishment contemplates whether there is a way to step back from exiting the EU.
乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)的大名已经永远地和英镑联系在一起。但在英国政界思考是否有办法收回退欧的脚步之际，这位在1992年迫使英镑退出欧洲汇率机制的伟大对冲基金经理也提供了一些概念，可用于解释市场和政治之间这场笨拙的舞蹈。广州经济翻译公司。
Back in 2008, on the eve of the financial crisis, Soros published a theory of markets that owed more to philosophy than to economics or finance. His central idea was “reflexivity” — the ability of markets to alter and create their own reality. For example, fear that rates will fall leads to lower bond yields, and fulfils the markets’ own prophecy, with real effects on the economy.
2008年即将爆发金融危机的时候，索罗斯发表了一套市场理论，这种理论更多源自哲学，而非经济学或者金融学。他的核心理念是“反身性”(reflexivity)，即市场改变或者创造自身现实的能力。比如，对利率将会下降的忧虑导致债券收益率下降，从而实现了市场自身的预言，对经济产生实际影响。
The last week was dominated by reflexivity, and the chances are that the next chapter of the drama will be as well.
上周，“反身性”唱了主角，而下一幕戏或许也将如此。广州经济翻译公司。
Entering last week, the polls suggested that the
上周初的民调显示英国公投两方难分伯仲。但很多人认为，工党议员乔•考克斯(Jo Cox)被杀这起骇人听闻的事件将成为一个转折点。许多痛恨这一罪行的英国人将会放弃退欧立场。
That led to a series of interrelated market events. British bookies started to slash the odds on a Remain victory, which by the time the polls closed on Thursday was rated a racing certainty. Meanwhile prediction markets, in which investors buy “futures” linked to specific political outcomes, also started to shift. For example, the Almanis prediction market put the chance of Remain at more than 80 per cent by Thursday.
这导致了一系列相互关联的市场事件。英国的博彩公司开始大幅下调赌留欧获胜的赔率，到周四投票结束的时候，留欧获胜几乎已被视为定局。同时，预测市场(prediction market)也开始转变——投资者在这些市场购买与特定政治结果相关联的“期货”。比如，到周四的时候，预测市场Almanis给出的英国留欧几率超过80%。广州经济翻译公司。
These markets are moved by weight of money. Bookies reported that far more people bet on Leave, but that bets on Remain were for far greater amounts. So the odds moved.
这些市场被资金的数量所驱动。博彩公司报告称赌退欧的人要比赌留欧的人多得多，但对留欧所下的赌注要远高于对退欧的赌注。因此赔率发生了变化。
With these markets moving, the foreign exchange market, reflecting infinitely greater sums of money, also moved. By late Thursday, the pound briefly topped $1.50 for the first time all year, a level that implied virtual certainty that
随着这些市场发生变动，资金总量大得多的外汇市场也发生了变动。到周四晚些时候，英镑汇率今年以来首次短暂突破1.5美元，这一汇率水平暗示，英国不会投票退欧几乎已被视为确定性事件。股市也上涨了。广州经济翻译公司。
These moves, over a time when the polls still showed Remain with at best a knife-edge lead, affected views of reality. Even the Ukip leader Nigel Farage said as the polls closed that he thought Remain had edged it, citing the views of his friends in the city.
在民调依然显示留欧顶多以微弱优势领先的时候，这些市场动向影响了人们对现实的看法。甚至英国独立党(UKip)领导人奈杰尔•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)在投票结束的时候都援引他在伦敦金融城的朋友的看法，认为留欧派处于领先。
Did this perception change the reality of people’s votes? If Remain was perceived as the clear likely winner, did it embolden people to make a protest vote? Or did the prospect of a Remain victory galvanise Eurosceptics who had not otherwise been motivated to vote? We cannot know, but it was at least possible.
这种认知是否改变了人们在现实中的投票？如果留欧派被视为有明显的获胜可能，这是否壮大了人们投出抗议票的胆量？或者留欧胜利的前景是否激励了原本缺乏积极性的欧洲怀疑论者前去投票？我们不得而知，但这至少是有可能的。广州经济翻译公司。
Meanwhile, the enthusiasm to bet on Remain created a far greater chance of a major financial accident, as it exposed many to far greater losses. Two trading days later, with sterling down almost 20 cents against the dollar while world stock markets have suffered their worst two days of the year, such an accident remains possible, even if it should be avoidable. But the startling falls do bolster the perception that a British exit will prove a disaster.
同时，对留欧下注的热情使出现重大金融事故的几率变得大得多，因为这使很多人暴露在蒙受更惨重损失的风险之下。在两个交易日过后，随着英镑对美元下跌近20%，世界股市经历了今年来最糟糕的两天，这样一场事故依然有可能发生，尽管它应该是可以避免的。但市场令人倒抽一口气的下跌支持了这样的认知：英国退欧将被证明是一场灾难。广州经济翻译公司。
This cues another episode of reflexivity. Some politicians are exploring a way out, whether it be through a second referendum or a snap general election. The possibility of not going through with Brexit is widely canvassed, at least in part due to two awful days on the market.
这暗示可能又将有一起反身性事件。一些政治人士正在探索一条避免退欧的路径，或者是通过二次公投，或者是提前举行大选。不将退欧付诸实践的可能性被广泛讨论，至少部分是因为这两天市场表现糟糕。
If the market moves to discount the chance that Brexit is abandoned, then prices should recover — and the urgency to step back from Brexit will abate. Should two bad days turn into a wholesale plunge, then it will greatly increase the chance that politicians find a way out of exiting — and create a profit for those who bet accordingly.
如果市场不把放弃退欧的可能性当回事，那么价格应该会反弹——撤回退欧脚步的紧迫性也会减弱。如果这两天的惨淡表现继而演变成大面积的暴跌，那么政治人士想方设法从退欧回头的几率就会大大增加——而那些下了对应赌注的人也将获利。广州经济翻译公司。
However this bizarre and unprecedented situation plays out, perception and reality in markets and politics are hopelessly interlinked and reflexive. George Soros, who forced British politicians to accept market reality once before, is right again.
不管这种前所未有的古怪局面最终会如何发展，市场和政治这两个领域的认知和现实不可避免地相互关联和反身。曾经迫使英国政治人士接受市场现实的索罗斯又一次是对的。
