广州财经翻译公司：孤立的英国应“拖住”欧盟

Britain’s best hope is to keep Europe waiting

孤立的英国应“拖住”欧盟

广州财经翻译公司：沃尔夫：英国退欧公投的烂摊子复杂且难以收拾。悔恨的情绪很快会蔓延开来，英国目前最好的选择，就是放慢脚步。

On May 22, one Boris Johnson gave his forecast for theUK’s post-referendum future: “Given the choice between taking back control or being sucked ever deeper into the federal superstate, the British voted for independence on June 23. To no one’s very great surprise, Project Fear turned out to be a gigantic hoax. The markets were calm. The pound did not collapse.” Alas, untrue. After the biggest ever proportional two-day decline, the pound touched a 30-year low against the dollar. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch have downgradedUKpublic debt. Investors have savaged bank shares. So far, the experts, dismissed by Michael Gove, justice secretary, have been proved right.

5月22日，鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)曾这样预测英国脱欧公投后的未来：“面临着是夺回控制权还是在联邦制超级国家中陷得更深的选择，6月23日，英国人投票独立。不太出乎任何人意料的是，营造恐惧计划(Project Fear)被证明是一场巨大的骗局。市场依旧平静，英镑也没有崩盘。”可惜的是，事实并非如此。在经历史上最大的两日跌幅之后，英镑兑美元汇率触及30年的低点。标普(S&P)和惠誉(Fitch)已下调了英国公共债务的评级。投资者疯狂抛售银行股。到目前为止，英国司法大臣迈克尔•戈夫(Michael Gove)所不屑的专家们已被证明是正确的。广州财经翻译公司。

Mr Johnson is to economic forecasting whatEnglandis to football. Any well-informed person knew that a vote for Brexit would inflict medium-term pain on the economy. The Treasury might even have been underestimating the shock. It would be astonishing if there were to be no recession. This self-inflicted folly will hurt millions of innocent people. It is likely that buyers’ remorse will soon set in. Voters might conclude that the leaders of the Leave campaign were fools or liars.

约翰逊在经济预测方面的表现，就像是英格兰在足球上的表现。任何有常识的人都知道，投票脱欧会在中期让经济吃苦头。英国财政部甚至可能一直低估了这一后果带来的冲击。英国经济不衰退才会让人奇怪。这种愚蠢的自找苦吃将会伤害无数无辜的人们。悔恨情绪可能很快就将弥漫开来。选民们或许会认定脱欧阵营的领导人是傻瓜或骗子。广州财经翻译公司。

It is easy to sympathise with the view of Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff that the hurdle for a change to the status quo had to be far higher than 50 per cent of votes in a referendum on an issue as profound as this one. As it is, 36 per cent of eligible voters have been allowed to decide “without any appropriate checks and balances”. This is just one aspect of the irresponsibility shown by David Cameron,Britain’s prime minister, throughout this immensely important process. It is not surprising, for example, that he found it hard to argue credibly for Remain after spending more than five years denigrating almost everything about the EU. He has proved calamitously short-sighted.

人们很容易认同哈佛大学(Harvard University)肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)的这样一种看法：对于一个如此复杂的问题，改变现状的得票率门槛应该设得远高于50%。然而考虑到整体投票率为70%，脱欧得票率为51.9%，事实上是占到全部有投票资格选民36%的这部分人，“在没有任何适当制衡机制的情况下”，决定了公投最终结果。在这个极端重要的过程中，这一点只是英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)表现得不负责任的一个地方。比如，他之前用了逾五年时间贬低欧盟(EU)的几乎一切，难怪这次他发现自己很难令人信服地为留欧辩护。广州财经翻译公司。

Might it be possible to abort the entire process? Legally, yes. As Brexiters rightly say, theUKis a parliamentary, not a plebiscitary, democracy. The step that must be taken, if theUKis to leave the EU, is for it to issue a declaration under Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, to trigger the process. In law, a referendum is solely advisory. Only parliament can do this, because only it makes valid law.

也许，中止整个过程是可能的？从法律上说，答案是肯定的。正如脱欧派所说，英国是议会制国家，不是全民公决的民主国家。如果英国打算脱离欧盟，必须采取的步骤是按照《里斯本条约》第50条发布一项声明，启动脱欧进程。从法律上说，公投只能提供建议。能够完成这一步骤的只有议会，原因是只有议会有权制定有效力的法律。广州财经翻译公司。

After selection of a new leader by the Conservative party, and perhaps even a general election, Prime Minister Johnson might, to paraphrase Emperor Hirohito’s remarks at the end of the second world war, declare that, given the “unexpected” economic damage and the risk of a break up of theUK, the situation “had developed not necessarily to theUK’s advantage”. He might forget the whole thing or, alternatively, call another referendum, merely to make sure the people remained as determined. The desire of the Leave side not to trigger Article 50 and the determination of EU leaders not to negotiate until it does could then give the time needed to change minds.

假如可能的话，在约翰逊当选保守党(Conservative Party)新党魁、甚至可能要等到他当选首相后，他也许会借用裕仁天皇(Emperor Hirohito)在二战结束时的讲话，宣称考虑到“出乎意料的”经济损失和英国分裂的风险，局面“已变得未必对英国有利”。他也许会对脱欧绝口不提，或者仅仅为了确认民众的决定是否依然坚定而呼吁再次举行公投。接下来，一边是脱欧派不愿启动《里斯本条约》第50条，另一边是欧盟领导人决意在前者启动该条款前不与英国谈判——这种局面可能会为改变主意留出必要的时间。广州财经翻译公司。

Politically, however, this option would surely be too slippery, even for Mr Johnson. If so, a second option would be to suggest to the rest of the EU that the principle of unrestricted movement might be reconsidered. What, theUKmight ask, about a safeguard arrangement? After all,UKmembership and continued (if modestly restricted) access to theUKlabour market would be better than Brexit and a tightly restricted entry. Moreover, only with safeguards on movement might Turkish or Ukrainian membership ever be feasible. TheUScould quietly indicate to the EU how much is at stake. Then there could be a referendum on new terms and so theUKmight remain in the EU.

然而，从政治上说这一选项无疑会非常难以把握——即使是对约翰逊来说也是如此。如果这样，还有一个选项是向欧盟其他国家提出这样的建议：或许可以重新考虑人员自由迁移原则？英国也许可以提议，设定预防性条款怎么样？毕竟，英国留在欧盟、英国劳动力市场继续向欧盟开放（尽管设置了一定限制），比英国脱欧、欧盟公民进入英国劳动力市场受到严格限制要好得多。此外，只有对人员迁移设定预防性条款，土耳其和乌克兰加入欧盟才是可行的。美国可以悄悄暗示欧盟，此事关系多么重大。接着，也许可以就新的条款举行公投，从而英国或许能够留在欧盟。广州财经翻译公司。

Yet it is probable that the EU will rule out restrictions on movement. If so, Brexiters must recognise something they prefer to deny: they cannot have their cake and eat it. Mr Johnson insists there will be “democratic control of immigration policy”. He also states that there will be “free trade, and access to the single market”. But, if the EU sticks to its current policies, then the access to the single market the UK has today is unavailable, because that is incompatible with controls on EU immigration. Mr Johnson needs to make a choice.

然而，欧盟也很可能拒绝考虑对人员迁移做出限制。如果这样的话，脱欧派必须承认一个他们不愿承认的事实：一块蛋糕，又想留着又想吃是不可能的。约翰逊坚称，英国将“以民主的方式控制移民政策”。他还说，自由贸易将继续，欧盟单一市场将继续向英国开放。然而，如果欧盟坚持目前的政策，欧盟单一市场如今对英国敞开的大门将关闭，原因是继续敞开与英国对欧盟移民的控制有冲突。约翰逊需要做一个选择。

“Access to the single market” are weasel words. Most will take it to mean the access theUKnow enjoys. But it might mean the more limited access that theUS, say, has. If that is all theUKseeks, it must say so. But leaving the EU and seeking to retain current access to the single market, while accepting free movement of labour, would be mad. If theUKwere willing to accept all this, it should stay inside the EU, since it would continue to possess a voice in the single-market regulations that would affect it.

“欧盟单一市场将继续对英国开放”这句话说得很狡猾。多数人会认为，继续开放的意思是开放程度将维持不变。然而，继续开放的意思也可能是受到更多限制的开放，类似美国的待遇。如果英国所希求的不过是这样，英国就必须说出来。然而，一方面脱离欧盟，一方面却寻求让欧盟单一市场继续对自己开放，同时还接受劳动力的自由迁移，这简直是疯了。如果英国情愿接受这一切，它就应该留在欧盟内，因为这样它将继续对欧盟单一市场的监管规定（这些规定会影响到英国）拥有话语权。广州财经翻译公司。

Controls on immigration are the crux. If they are inescapable for the post-referendumUKand if the EU will not shift on the issue, then theUKmust lose its access to the single market. It should, instead, open discussions on the best trade agreement to allow such controls.

对移民的控制是症结所在。如果公投后的英国无法回避这个问题，而欧盟又不愿改变在这个问题上的立场，那么英国就只能对欧盟单一市场放手。英国应该转而启动相关讨论，以探索出能够允许英国实施此类控制的最佳贸易协议。

Right now, however, the best thing to do is nothing. TheUKmust work out what it wants. The EU must consider whether free movement is inviolable. TheUKshould avoid triggering Article 50: that would eliminate its leverage and would push it out of the EU within two years, probably with no further trade agreement. Any such stalemate cannot continue forever. But there could be benefits, for both sides, in avoiding too hasty and brutal an ending.

然而，眼下最好的对策就是按兵不动。英国必须想清楚自己想要什么。欧盟必须思考人员自由迁移是不是神圣不可侵犯的原则。英国应避免启动《里斯本条约》第50条：这么做会让英国丧失手中的筹码，会让英国在两年内脱离欧盟——并且很可能是在没有进一步贸易协议的情况下。任何这样的僵局都无法永远持续下去。不过，避免过于仓促和粗暴的结局，对双方可能都有好处。广州财经翻译公司。

The story goes that a man condemned to death told his king: “I could teach your horse to sing, within a year.” The king replied: “Very well. But if the horse is not singing a year from now, you will be executed.” Upon the criminal’s return, his cellmate remonstrated: “You know you can’t teach that horse to sing.” He replied: “I have a year I didn’t have before. A lot of things can happen in a year. The king might die. The horse might die. I might die. “And, who knows? Maybe the horse will sing.”

有这样一个故事，一名被判死刑的男子向国王表示：“我可以在一年内教会您的马唱歌。”国王回答说：“很好，不过如果一年后如果马还不会唱歌，你将被处决。”这名罪犯回来后，他的狱友说：“你明明知道你是没法教会那匹马唱歌的啊。”他答道：“这样我就有了原本没有的一年时间。一年里可能发生许多事。国王也许会死，那匹马也可能会死。甚至我也可能会死。而且，谁知道呢，没准这匹马能学会唱歌。”

I suggest we try that year or so.

我建议我们也试着推迟个一年半载再行动。

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