广州金融翻译公司：英国退欧可能殃及欧元

Writing on the wall for euro ifBritainvotes Out

英国退欧可能殃及欧元

广州金融翻译公司：正如英镑走势随英国公众舆论的摇摆而波动，欧元也可能感受到欧洲大陆疑欧情绪在英国退欧启发下升腾的力量。

The looming threat of Brexit has weighed heavily on sterling and has begun to show up elsewhere in the currency universe — the euro.

英国退欧扑面而来的威胁已对英镑造成重压，对欧元的影响也开始显现。广州金融翻译公司。

The implications of a possible Brexit is are increasing pressure on the eurozone’s much maligned currency. Having been at the mercy of the dollar’s fluctuations for most of the year, it is now vulnerable to a market that, already sceptical about the durability of the euro, sees in Brexit a path that leads to the unwinding of the vaunted European project.

英国可能退欧的影响正给频遭诟病的欧元带来越来越大的压力。今年以来大部分时间受制于美元波动的欧元，如今变得更加脆弱，因为本已质疑欧元持久性的市场，从英国退欧中看到了被吹嘘的欧洲项目走向解体的可能路径。

“That could be the real legacy of Brexit,” says Jane Foley, G10 FX strategist at Rabobank.

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank) 10国集团(G10)外汇策略师简•福利(Jane Foley)表示：“这可能是英国退欧的真正后遗症。”

Just as implied volatility on sterling options have has risen sharply in the weeks leading up to the June 23 referendum, so the premium for euro options are also is climbing.

正如6月23日公投前几周英镑期权隐含波动率急剧上升，欧元期权溢价也随之攀升。广州金融翻译公司。

Meanwhile, peripheral sovereign bond yields are widening over that of the 10-year Bund, and the trend in the euro shows a decline against several of its peers, including the dollar, the Swiss franc, and the yen.

与此同时，欧元区外围国家主权债券收益率与10年期德国国债收益率之间的差距正在扩大，欧元相对其他主要货币（包括美元、瑞郎和日元）呈现下降趋势。

This marks a reversal from the euro’s steady ascent for much of this year when the single currency was driven higher by a combination of a weak dollar and doubts over European Central Bank policy.

这标志着欧元今年以来大部分时间的稳步升势发生逆转，此前，美元疲软以及对欧洲央行(ECB)政策的质疑共同推高了欧元。

“I always thought the focus would be primarily on the UK, but if it’s an Out vote the implications for the euro are quite dire and more long term,” says Alan Wilde, head of fixed income at Baring Asset Management.

霸菱资产管理公司(Baring Asset Management)固定收益主管艾伦•王尔德(Alan Wilde)表示：“我一直认为首当其冲的会是英国，但如果退欧成真的话，对欧元的影响将相当严重且更为长期。”

Just as sterling has tracked the swings inUKpublic opinion, so the euro may feel the force of a tide of Eurosceptic sentiment on the continent, taking its cue from Brexit.

正如英镑走势随英国公众舆论的摆动而波动，欧元也可能感受到欧洲大陆疑欧情绪在英国退欧启发之下风起云涌的力量。

There are numerous trigger points, starting withSpain’s election next Sunday, followed by the European Commission’s sanctions deliberations againstSpainandPortugalfor missing budget targets, a referendum inItalyon constitutional reform, and next year’s elections inGermanyandFrance—, not to mention the ongoing strain of migration on Europe.

接下来还有很多触发点——首先是下周日的西班牙选举，接着是欧盟委员会(European Commission)因西班牙、葡萄牙未能达到预算目标而对其进行制裁的审议、意大利宪法改革公投，以及明年德国和法国的大选，更不用说移民问题给欧洲带来的持续压力了。广州金融翻译公司。

“The political risks are not going away,” says Laura Sarlo, senior sovereign analyst at asset manager Loomis, Sayles & Co. Brexit would be “a huge deal for theUKand a big deal for Europe”.

“政治方面的风险不会消失，”资产管理公司Loomis, Sayles & Co高级主权债券分析师劳拉•萨洛(Laura Sarlo)表示。英国退欧“对英国是一件巨大的事情，对欧洲是一件重大的事情”。

Brexit’s impact in Europe could surface in unpredictable ways. One possibility beckons should the Leave campaign turn out to be right and is that theUKeconomy defies the doom-mongerish predictions of a slew of experts. “The questions will start to be asked about the euro, particularly if the UK economy over the next six to 12 months is seen to be faring relatively well compared to expectations,” says John Wraith, UK strategist at UBS. “If anti-EU sentiment starts to become more elevated and we see some of the stresses in peripheral bond spreads that we’ve seen in the past, the focus will turn back to Europe and the euro will come under pressure.”

英国退欧对欧洲的影响可能以无法预料的方式呈现——如果退欧阵营最终被证明正确，英国经济的表现不像一些专家预测的那么糟糕。“有人可能开始对欧元提出质疑——特别是如果英国经济在未来6到12个月的表现和预期相比还算不错的话，”瑞银(UBS)英国策略师约翰•雷斯(John Wraith)说，“如果反欧盟情绪开始变得更加高涨，我们会再次从外围国家主权债券收益率看出一部分压力，欧洲将重新被聚焦，欧元将面临压力。”

How might the ECB and other central banks respond? A sizeable fall in sterling may look troublesome for theUK, but if there is a silver lining it will be the competitive boost a weaker pound gives toUKexporters. That, in turn, puts pressure on other currencies.

欧洲央行及其他央行可能会如何回应？对英国来说，英镑汇率大幅下滑可能看似麻烦，但是如果其中有一线光明的话，那将是英镑疲软给英国出口商带来的竞争优势。反过来，这会使其他货币承压。

“The flipside of UK exporters being in a better place is that Eeurozone exporters will find life harder, and it’s one reason to think the euro will fall further in due course,” says Mr Wraith. “The eurozone is the most obvious place where they might feel they need to do more.”

“英国出口商境遇改善的另一面是欧元区出口商发现日子难过，这是认为欧元届时会进一步下跌的一个理由，”雷斯称，“欧元区是当局认为自己需要采取更多行动的最明显的地区。”

It is also not hard to see how Brexit could trigger a return to beggar-thy-neighbour currency wars, says Mr Wilde, threatening the G20 understandingreached in February at Shanghai to desist from competitive FX depreciation.

王尔德称，也不难看到英国退欧会引发“以邻为壑”的货币战重现，危及20国集团(G20)今年2月在上海会议上就停止竞争性货币贬值达成的共识。

Risk-off sentiment has driven the yen to below ¥104 to the dollar, putting huge pressure on the Bank of Japan to intervene to weaken its currency, and a disorderly market reaction to Brexit may give its central bank thean excuse to break the G20 accord.

避险情绪推动日元汇率升至1美元兑104日元下方，给日本央行带来巨大压力，要求其出手干预，压低日元，市场对英国退欧的失序反应，或许给日本央行带来打破G20协议的借口。

“I feel certain that if push comes to shove, [ECB president] Mario Draghi will cut rates again,” Mr Wilde says. “You shift the parameters for Brussels to go more negative and Japan doing something similar. Will theUSwear a stronger dollar? They might have to accept it as a price to pay.”

“我敢肯定，到了紧要关头，（欧洲央行行长）马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)会再次降息，”王尔德称，“你改变了布鲁塞尔的参数，使其在负数区间进一步降低利率，日本也一样。美国会忍受美元走强吗？他们或许不得不接受这一现实，当作必须付出的代价。”

There are caveats to the idea of the euro weakening much further. “I don’t think the euro is expensive here,” says Ugo Lancioni, FX and fixed income portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. “The euro has fallen a lot on a trade-weighted basis.”

也有人不赞同欧元将进一步大幅走软的想法。“我不认为欧元目前水平很高，”纽伯格伯曼(Neuberger Berman)外汇和固定收益投资组合经理乌戈•兰乔尼(Ugo Lancioni)称，“欧元在贸易加权基础上已经下跌了很多。”

Others feel the risk of political contagion in the euro area is not so serious, since someseveral political events, such as the French elections, are some way off.

其他人认为，欧元区内政治危机蔓延的风险没那么严重，因为法国大选等一些政治事件距离现在还有一段时间。

And then Then there is the resilience of the eurozone. Crises have come and gone. If Brexit happens, it may simply be another.

此外，欧元区也颇有韧性。危机来了又去。如果英国退欧成真，或许也只是另一场危机而已。

Don’t lose sight of a couple of salient facts, says Steven Saywell, global head of G10 strategy at BNP Paribas. One is that theUKis not a member of the Eurozone, so Brexit is “not about the eurozone, it’s about the European Union. The market is at risk of going a step too far.”

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)全球G10策略主管斯蒂文•塞维尔(Steven Saywell)称，不要忽视两个重要事实。一个是，英国并非欧元区成员国，因此英国退欧“无关欧元区，而是关于欧盟。市场存在反应过度的风险。”

The second is that likeJapanandSwitzerland, the eurozone has a large current account surplus. “The natural tendency for these three currencies is up because of their current accounts”, Mr Saywell says. “The euro is a risk-off currency.”

第二点是，像日本和瑞士一样，欧元区拥有大额经常账户盈余。“由于经常账户状况良好，这3种货币的天然趋势是上升，”塞维尔称，“欧元是避险货币。”

广州金融翻译公司