Don’t count on an orderly transition to a low carbon world
别指望世界向低碳经济平稳转型
能源翻译公司：巴特勒：期待能源结构平稳转型是一厢情愿，转型可能在经济和政治方面造成极大破坏，我们应该对此做好准备。
Remember the Arab Spring and the heady promise of freedom and peace in the Middle East? Many normally sensible observers were carried away by the excitement of the internet-led revolution in Tahrir Square and across the region. Now, a similarly happy transformation is promised in the energy market as the world moves away from oil, gas and coal. The transition is certainly coming but its implications will be as disruptive and dangerous as those of the Arab Spring. We should be prepared for the consequences rather than misled by wishful thinking.
还记得中东的“阿拉伯之春”(Arab Spring)、记得那些对自由与和平的令人神往的承诺吗？许多平时理智的观察人士也被开罗解放广场乃至整个地区互联网领导的革命带来的兴奋冲昏了头脑。如今，随着各国减少使用石油、天然气及煤炭，全球能源市场也出现了同样乐观的转型承诺。能源结构转型无疑即将到来，但其潜在影响将如同“阿拉伯之春”的影响那样具有破坏性和危险性。我们应该准备好应对后果，而不是被一厢情愿的想法所误导。能源翻译公司。
The shift to a low-carbon energy system will be smooth, orderly and beneficial for most of the global economy: that is the view of a new set of papers from the Global Agenda on the Future of Oil and Gas – a group set up by the World Economic Forum, the organisers of Davos. Unfortunately, all the evidence so far points in the opposite direction. The shift may be beneficial in terms of the world’s environment, but economically and politically the result could be dramatically destructive.
“石油与天然气未来全球议程理事会”(Global Agenda Council on the Future of Oil & Gas)一系列新论文的观点是：向低碳能源体系转型将是一个平稳、有序、让全球大部分经济体受益的过程。该理事会由达沃斯(Davos)的主办方世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)设立。遗憾的是，到目前为止，所有的证据都指向相反方向。这种转型可能有益于世界环境，但在经济和政治方面可能造成极大破坏。能源翻译公司。
Five years ago, the obsession of oil market analysts and commentators was with peak oil, meaning peak supply as finite resources were used up. The argument influenced price speculation and encouraged some companies to invest in expensive projects. Times change and now the common view is that demand will peak before supply, although there is no agreement on when that will occur.
五年前，石油市场分析师和评论员还痴迷于石油峰值论——伴随有限资源耗尽，供应见顶回落。这一理论影响了价格投机，并鼓励一些公司投资成本高昂的项目。时过境迁，如今的普遍看法是石油需求将先于供应达到峰值，尽管各方对于需求何时见顶看法不一。
A new contribution to the debate written for the Global Agenda group says that the transition will have many benefits for the global economy. With a diminished role for oil, energy and financial markets will become more stable. Vulnerabilities to supply disruptions and price shocks will be things of the past.
加入这场辩论的全球议程理事会一篇新论文称，转型将为全球经济带来众多好处。随着石油重要性的下降，能源和金融市场将变得更加稳定。我们在供应中断和价格冲击面前的脆弱性将成为历史。能源翻译公司。
The authors of the paper, Amy Myers Jaffe, the executive director of energy and sustainability at University of California, Davis, and Jereon van der Veer, the former chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, are serious and well-respected individuals. Their expert knowledge, however, and that of most of the group of which they are part, is based on the world of the past 40 years when oil in particular has been at high tide, with demand continuously rising.
该论文的作者——加州大学戴维斯分校(University of California, Davis)能源与可持续性项目执行主任埃米•梅耶斯•贾菲(Amy Myers Jaffe)与荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)前首席执行官范德伟(Jereon van der Veer)都是严肃、备受尊敬的人士。但他们以及该理事会多数人的专业知识都建立在过去40年经验的基础上，在此期间尤其是石油的地位高涨，需求不断增加。
Hydrocarbon consumption across the world has risen by 80 per cent since Mr Van der Veer joined Shell in 1971. Prices have been volatile but the importance of oil, gas and coal to the global economy has never been in doubt. Companies could take risks investing in oil and gas in the confidence that the world market would keep growing; governments could allow their economies to remain dependent on oil and gas because they believed it would always generate the revenues needed to keep things going. Many came to believe that despite occasional volatility, scarcity of supply would continue to drive underlying prices upward over time.
自范德伟1971年加入壳牌以来，全球油气消费增长了80%。虽然价格起伏不定，但石油、天然气、煤炭对全球经济的重要性从未受到质疑。企业之所以冒险投资石油和天然气，是因为他们相信全球市场将不断扩大；各国政府让本国经济体继续依赖石油及天然气，因为他们认为，这样做总能带来国家赖以运转的财政收入。许多人开始相信，虽然偶尔会有波动，但随着时间推移，供应不足将继续推动价格上涨。
The world described in the Global Agenda paper is very different. Oil demand peaks and then falls back to 80m barrels a day or less by 2040, with further falls to come beyond that. This is intended to be a directional projection, not a detailed forecast. I have no quarrel with the direction, but I do have three specific doubts about the anticipated pace of change and about the authors’ confident expectation of an orderly and positive transition.
“全球议程”论文描述了一个非常迥异的世界。石油需求将在2040年之前达到峰值然后降至每天8000万桶或更少，此后需求还将进一步下降。这是作为一种方向性研判，而非详细的预测。我对这一方向没有异议，但对预期的变化速度以及两位作者对有序、积极转型的自信期待有三个具体疑问。能源翻译公司。
First, the papers are correct in saying that the transition is coming. On the timing, however, I think they are far too cautious. Once the tipping point comes, driven primarily as the paper argues by the market penetration of electric vehicles, I don’t think it will take long for the new technologies to spread across the world. Globalisation transfers knowledge and new products very quickly and in the process reduces unit costs. We are not at the tipping point yet, but it is not that far away and once we are past it the downhill slide of oil demand could be dramatic.
首先，论文称转型即将来临是正确的。然而，在时间点的选择上，我认为作者太过谨慎。一旦拐点到来——如论文所称，主要受电动车的市场渗透推动——我认为新技术在全球普及不会需要太长时间。全球化意味着知识和新产品可以非常迅速地转移，在此过程中降低单位成本。我们虽然还没有到达拐点，但距离不再那么遥远，而一旦我们越过拐点，石油需求可能遭遇大幅下滑。
Gradualists tend to believe that the embedded investment in the existing capital stock will be a sufficient drag to slow down the process of change. I don’t agree. If the new products are cheaper and more convenient they will dominate the market very quickly. Ask the makers of typewriters or fax machines.
渐进派倾向认为，嵌入现有资本存量的投资将足以减缓变化过程。我不这么认为。如果新产品更便宜、更便利，它们将很快占领市场。关于这一点，不妨问问打字机或传真机制造商。
The second point concerns the ability of the oil- and gas-dependent economies to adjust. It is not difficult to think of a dozen countries that are currently overwhelmingly dependent on oil and gas revenue and very ill prepared for this transition –
第二点疑问涉及依赖油气出口的经济体的适应能力。不难想到的是俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亚、阿尔及利亚、利比亚、委内瑞拉、安哥拉、伊朗、伊拉克、阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦及墨西哥这12个国家，它们目前都严重依赖石油和天然气收入，对转型毫无准备。在几乎每个国家，国民经济完全以石油和天然气为中心，配套经济活动依赖这样那样的补贴。对所有这些国家而言，全球议程理事会描绘的前景将减少出口收入（从而降低购买进口商品的能力）、就业、税收以及公共支出的能力。能源翻译公司。
A few well-run oil producers such as Abu Dhabi might make the transition smoothly. A few more, like Saudi, should have low enough costs to remain competitive in a shrinking oil market. But the rest are vulnerable to any downturn in demand. In addition, of course, significant parts of numerous countries from
少数几个经营有方的石油生产国（如阿布扎比）或许可以实现平稳转型。另外几个国家（如沙特）应该能借助足够低的成本在日益萎缩的石油市场保持竞争力。但其余国家面对任何需求下滑都不堪一击。当然，此外，从哥伦比亚、南非到印度尼西亚，许多国家不少地区仍以煤炭贸易为生，而煤炭需求也将下降，并将经历激烈的价格竞争。
My third point of doubt, arising from the second, concerns the overall cost-benefit analysis. The broad assumption of the paper is that since there are more consumers than producers there must be a net gain in economic welfare. But that disregards the question of timing.
第三点疑问（源自第二点）涉及总体成本效益分析。论文的基本假设是，因为石油消费国多于生产国，经济福利必然会出现净增长。但这种观点忽视了时间点的问题。
The citizens of producing countries that have come to depend on oil and gas revenue start to lose immediately. Those in importing countries gain slowly over a much longer period. In many countries, such as
依赖油气收入的生产国的居民将立马变成输家。而进口国的居民要在更长的时期内才能慢慢获得收益。在许多国家（如印度），这些收益可能要比人们预期得要少，因为汽油价格等一直得到政府大量补贴。另外，对于任何收益，都必须考虑另一面：应对新安全问题的成本，这些问题是由本已不稳定地区国家的贫困带来的。论文的基本假设是市场将更加稳定，但这种假设忽略了潜在破坏性回应的风险，例如新一波的大规模移民——这次来自产油国。能源翻译公司。
From the World Economic Forum’s lovely headquarters looking out over Lake Geneva, change can be viewed as a beneficial process. The outlook does not look so rosy if you live in the Niger Delta or in Tripoli.
从眺望日内瓦湖的世界经济论坛优美总部看，这种转型也许像是一个有益的过程。但如果你生活在尼日尔三角洲或是的黎波里，前景看上去不会那么光明。
What we are seeing today is a forerunner of what will happen when the transition comes. For the moment, oil demand continues to rise – although the rate of this is dangerously dependent on what happens in a single country:
我们现在看到的是转型到来时将发生什么的先兆。就目前而言，石油需求继续增长——尽管增速危险地系于中国一国的需求变化。但能源供应的增速超过了需求的增速，尤其是天然气供应。结果是价格疲软、财政收入下降以及普遍的政治不稳定。等到需求开始逐年下降时，局面将糟糕得多。
The transition cannot be resisted and it could be very rapid. It should be recognised as a likely source of some of the greatest political instability of the coming half century. There will be winners for sure, but the losers will more evident and more dangerous. The notion of a smooth transition is a ridiculous example of wishful thinking. Remember Tahrir Square.
全球能源结构转型势不可挡，而且可能非常迅速。我们应该意识到，这一进程有可能成为未来半个世纪一些最严重政治不稳定的来源。肯定会有赢家，但输家将更显而易见、更危险。所谓平稳转型的概念只是一厢情愿的荒唐想法。别忘了开罗解放广场上发生的一切。
