标书翻译公司：英国退欧将带来多大冲击波？

Brexit imperils the confidence of strangers

英国退欧将带来多大冲击波？

标书翻译公司：沃尔夫：退欧可能给英国、欧洲、甚至世界带来经济和政治冲击。公投本身就不负责任。结果很可能是灾难性的。

Suppose that the Leave campaign, which one might call Project Lie, wins the referendum next week. How bad might the economic consequences over the next few years be? Alas, they might be very bad indeed.

假设退欧运动——人们可能称之为“谎言项目”(Project Lie)——在下周赢得公投。它对今后几年的经济影响有多严重？唉，实际上影响可能非常大。

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, noted when launching the May Inflation Report: “The [Monetary Policy Committee] judges that the most significant risks to its forecast concern the referendum.” Moreover, he added, “a vote to leave the EU could have material economic effects — on the exchange rate, on demand and on the economy’s supply potential — that could affect the appropriate setting of monetary policy”. The latest Inflation Report adds that the campaign has already partly caused sterling’s depreciation.

英国央行(BoE)行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)在发布《5月通胀报告》(May Inflation Report)时指出：“（货币政策委员会）认为，可能影响其预测的最大风险与退欧公投有关。”“选择退出欧盟的公投结果可能产生巨大的经济影响——在汇率、需求和经济供应潜力方面——可能影响货币政策的正确制定”。最新通胀报告补充称，退欧运动已经在一定程度上导致了英镑的贬值。标书翻译公司。

The UK Treasury has provided a thorough analysis of short-term risks. This is, inevitably, controversial. But it is important to remember that the Treasury is notoriously sceptical about the EU. Its main scenario is that gross domestic product would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if theUKvoted to stay, unemployment 520,000 higher and the pound 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP would be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has added that — instead of an improvement of £8bn a year in the fiscal position if the net contribution to the EU fell — the budget deficit might be between £20bn and £40bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise.

英国财政部对短期风险进行了全面分析。这种分析不可避免地存在争议。但重要的是，别忘了，英国财政部也因对欧盟持怀疑态度而出名。它的主要预测是，如果英国投票脱离欧盟，两年后国内生产总值(GDP)将会下降3.6%，失业人数增长52万，英镑贬值12%。更糟糕的情景是，GDP将下降6%，失业人数上升82万，英镑贬值15%。伦敦财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)补充称，如果退出欧盟的话，2019年至2020年的预算赤字可能比留在欧盟多200亿至400亿英镑——而不是如果对欧盟的净贡献下降，每年财政状况可以改善80亿英镑。

Far more important than such inevitably uncertain forecasts is the analysis of the three channels through which Brexit would work in the short term. These are the “transition effect”, which would come from the perception that theUKhad become permanently poorer; the “uncertainty effect”, which would come from unavoidable ignorance about the post-Brexit policy regime; and, finally, the “financial conditions effect”, which would work via the perception that theUKwas a less appealing and riskier place in which to invest money.

此类预测不可避免地带有不确定性，但更重要的是对退欧在短期内产生影响的三种渠道的分析。一种是“过渡影响”，这将来自英国永久变得更穷的认知；一种是“不确定性影响”，这将来自对退欧后的政策制度必然的一无所知；最后是“金融环境影响”，这将通过英国作为投资目的地吸引力下降和风险上升的认知产生影响。标书翻译公司。

An important question is whether modelled possibilities capture all the tail risks. The answer is that they do not.

一个重要问题是，这些分析所列出的可能性是否囊括了所有的尾部风险。答案是没有。

The Treasury argues that the economy might reach a “tipping point” after which worse outcomes would occur — thus “a shock to sterling might cause a sudden contraction in foreign currency lending toUKbanks”. Since about half of banks’ short-term wholesale funding is in foreign currencies, reduced access to such funding could then cause further significant financial instability.

英国财政部认为，英国经济可能达到一个“临界点”，之后将会出现更糟糕的结果——因此“英镑遭受的冲击可能导致对英国银行的外币贷款突然收缩”。既然大约一半的银行短期批发融资以外币计价，缩减此类融资渠道可能进一步引发严重的金融动荡。标书翻译公司。

An obvious source of fragility is the huge current account deficit. This reached 7 per cent of GDP in the last quarter of 2015. Mr Carney has stated that theUKis dependent on “the kindness of strangers” for sustaining its current standard of living. More precisely, it depends on their confidence. The current account deficit brings risks even in normal times. But the uncertainty caused by Brexit might cause a sharp turnround in capital flows. Net inward foreign direct investment might collapse, for example. The results could include a sharp decline in sterling, a fall in the prices of sterling-denominated bonds and a jump in the inflation rate.

一个明显的脆弱性来源是巨大的经常账户赤字。在2015年最后一个季度，英国经常账户赤字与GDP的比例达到7%。卡尼表示，英国依赖“陌生人的善意”来维持目前的生活水准。更准确地说，它依赖的是陌生人的信心。即便在正常时期，经常账户赤字也会带来风险。但英国退欧带来的不确定性可能导致资本流动急剧转向。例如，外国直接投资净流入可能一落千丈。结果可能包括英镑急剧贬值、英镑计价债券价格下跌以及通胀飙升。

If this were merely caused by a negative shock to demand, the MPC could respond with expansionary policy. Even so, it would be forced into unconventional policies, possibly including negative rates, given how low interest rates are. But, if Brexit were also viewed as a negative shock to supply (as it would almost certainly be), the case for monetary offsets would be weaker. The higher prices would then be a way to deliver the needed suppression of real demand. (See charts.)

 如果这只是需求受到负面冲击导致的，英国央行货币政策委员会可能以扩张性政策应对。即便如此，它也将被迫出台非常规政策。鉴于如今利率已非常低，非常规政策可能包括负利率。但如果退欧也被视为会对供应造成负面冲击（这是几乎可以肯定的），通过货币政策抵消冲击的理由将减弱。那么价格上涨将是对实际需求进行必要抑制的方式。

A crucial source of fragility, on which the Treasury naturally says nothing, is political. After the referendum, theUKwould cease to have a government in any meaningful sense. The Conservative party, with a tiny majority, would be deeply divided between its pro and anti-European wings. The opposition Labour party is already deeply divided on this and many other issues.

脆弱性的一个关键来源是政治领域——英国财政部自然闭口不谈脆弱性。在公投之后，英国将不再有一个真正意义上的政府。拥有微弱多数席位的保守党将严重分化为亲欧和反欧两大阵营，反对党工党已经在这个问题以及其他问题上出现严重分歧。标书翻译公司。

Out of this morass would have to come a competent government with a view of what it wants to achieve in complex negotiations with the rest of the EU and the world. It would then have to undertake these negotiations with partners that have many other concerns and would regard theUKwith a poisonous blend of hostility and contempt. It would have to decide whether to keep or modify the laws created by more than four decades of EU membership and, if the latter, how to do so. It would have to manage the impact of Brexit on the coherence of theUKand its relations withIreland. While doing all this, it would have to manage the economy, the fiscal position and the minutiae of political life. Anybody who believes the leaders of the Brexit campaign could manage all this is surely taking illegal drugs.

要摆脱这种困境，英国将不得不出现一个能干的政府，以实现它在与欧盟其他国家和世界各国的复杂谈判中希望达成的目标。它将不得不与有着其他许多担忧、并对英国怀有轻蔑和敌意的合作伙伴展开这些谈判。它将不得不决定要保持还是修订、以及如何修订作为欧盟成员国四十多年来形成的法律。它将不得不管理退欧对英国凝聚力以及与爱尔兰关系的影响。在做所有这些事情的同时，它还将不得不管理经济、财政状况以及政治生活细节。任何相信英国退欧领导人可以管理所有这一切的人肯定吸食了毒品。

Moreover, the consequences of Brexit are unlikely to be limited to theUK. The direct impact of British economic instability on the world might not be large, though the eurozone is not in a good position to cope with negative shocks. But the indirect effects might be sizeable. Outsiders might view theUK’s departure as a sign that the EU is a sinking ship. Inside the EU, nationalists and xenophobes would take heart. Brexit might, in such ways, prove an important blow to the EU. At the least, it would force a huge diversion of attention and effort. Yet perhaps the most important consequence might be as a signal of the sheer power of populist forces. If theUKcan choose Brexit, maybe Donald Trump will become president of theUS.

此外，英国退欧的影响不太可能局限于英国。英国经济动荡对全球的直接影响可能并不大，不过欧元区并不能够很好地应对负面冲击。但间接影响可能非常大。欧盟以外的人士可能将英国退欧视为欧盟这艘大船下沉的迹象。在欧盟内部，民族主义者和排外主义者将会欢欣鼓舞。通过此类方式，英国退欧可能对欧盟造成重大打击。最起码，它将迫使注意力和努力出现巨大的分散。然而最重要的后果或许是它将表明民粹主义者的巨大力量。如果英国可以选择退欧，或许唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将会成为美国总统。

Brexit, in sum, might be a big economic shock and not just for theUK. This is largely because of the fragility that precedes it and the many uncertainties that would follow it. The referendum is itself irresponsible. The outcome might well prove devastating.

总之，英国退欧可能带来巨大的经济冲击，而且冲击不仅仅局限于英国。这在很大程度上是因为它之前的脆弱性以及退欧之后的诸多不确定性。公投本身就不负责任。结果很可能是灾难性的。

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