广州金融翻译公司|人民币暂时企稳|中国尚不能高枕无忧

Renminbi has breathing space butChina’s challenge remains

人民币暂时企稳 中国尚不能高枕无忧

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Since fears about capital outflows — which surfaced in August last year, and then again at the start of the year — raised the possibility of another Asian financial crisis, the renminbi has subsequently stabilised.

去年8月和今年初，中国两度遭遇资本外流，对这种资本外流的担忧曾使人们预感亚洲金融危机可能将重演，但是此后人民币汇率已经企稳。

May outflows are likely to amount to around $26bn, a number that is “similar to March and April but much lower than in late 2015 and the beginning of the year,” say the economists at JPMorgan, who estimate that outflows were $257bn in December and January.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)的经济学家们表示，5月资本外流规模可能达到260亿美元，“与3月和4月差不多，但比去年末和今年初低得多”。他们估计，去年12月和今年1月的资本外流规模均在2570亿美元左右。

For some participants in the global system, such as central banks, the stabilisation of flows and the renminbi is all that matters. But for investors seeking to determine whether the worst is behindChina, the reasons matter as much as the numbers.

对全球金融体系的一些参与者（比如央行）来说，资金流动企稳和人民币是最重要的。但对于想知道中国经济的最糟糕时期是否已经过去的投资者来说，背后的原因与表面上的数字同样重要。

It is hard to tell whether these benign numbers reflect a genuine anchoring of renminbi expectations, or are instead a function of both the expectation the US Federal Reserve is not likely to raise rates any time soon and an intensification of Chinese capital controls, the JPMorgan economists conclude. Either way, they add that “the regime is likely to be tested when US dollar strength re-emerges”.

摩根大通的经济学家们总结称，很难分辨近期较好的数据是反映人民币预期已真正稳定下来，还是市场预计美联储(Fed)短期内不太可能加息以及中国加强资本管制的结果。他们补充称，无论是哪种情况，“当美元再现强势的时候，人民币汇率机制可能经受考验”。

It is probable that the recent stability reflects both Beijing’s heavier hand and more skilful tongue as regulators communicate more clearly with the markets. The government is making more efforts to attract foreign capital to keep its reserves from dwindling too rapidly.

近期人民币企稳可能反映北京方面更强硬的手腕以及更富技巧的交流能力——监管机构以更清晰的方式与市场沟通。中国政府正在加大努力吸引外国资本，从而使外汇储备不会过快下降。广州金融翻译公司。

The People’s Bank of China, for example, has recently announced further details on its plan to open the onshore bond market to foreign investors. And while corporate defaults are rising as growth slows — and with it cash flows — the government balance sheet remains far healthier than say that ofIndonesia.

例如，中国人民银行(PBOC)最近披露了向外国投资者开放境内债券市场计划的更多细节。随着经济增长放缓（同时现金流随之放缓），企业违约案例日益增多，但中国政府的资产负债表依然比其他国家（比如说印尼）健康得多。

The Chinese government bond market is already the third-largest in the world, although foreigners only own a small slice of it. Moreover, it is one of the few markets where yields are positive and relatively attractive.

中国政府债券市场已经是全球第三大市场，但外国人只能占据其中一小部分。此外，它是收益率为正且相对具有吸引力的少数几个市场之一。

“Last week saw a number of records set in the sovereign bond markets with gilts, JGB and Bund yields touching record lows. $10.4tn of global bonds are currently yielding below zero,” notes Sean Darby, Jefferies’ global portfolio strategist.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)全球股票策略主管戴仕文(Sean Darby)表示：“上周主权债券市场创造了多个纪录，英国、日本和德国的国债收益率均触及创纪录低点。目前全球有10.4万亿美元债券的收益率为负。”

Currently, Chinese government bonds are not included in any major index, such as Citigroup’s World Government Bond Index. If that were to change, inflows could swiftly amount to as much as $150bn, according to JPMorgan. “There is a lot of opportunity inChina, if they can sell their story credibly,” says oneChinaeconomist.

就目前而言，中国政府债券没有被纳入任何主要指数，比如花旗集团(Citigroup)的全球政府债券指数(Citi World Government Bond index)。摩根大通表示，如果这种情况得以改变，流入中国的资金可能迅速达到1500亿美元。一位中国经济学家表示：“中国有大量机遇，如果他们能够让人相信他们的故事的话。”

But for that capital to come in once more, foreign investors must be convinced: firstly, that what they gain on yield, they will not lose on the currency; and secondly, that the money they put intoChinawill not be stuck behind a financial Great Wall.

但是要想让资本重新进来，就必须让外国投资者确信：首先，他们获得的债券收益不会出现汇兑损失；其次，他们投入中国的资金将不会被拦在“金融长城”之后。

To its credit,Chinais already formulating rules that make hedging foreign exchange risk easier. However, doubts on both scores remain. Some foreign private equity firms and even one sovereign wealth fund say they are having difficulties repatriating funds.

值得赞扬的是，中国已经在制定让对冲汇率风险更为容易的规则。然而，中国在这两方面的表现依然受到怀疑。一些外国私募股权投资公司表示在将资金汇回方面存在困难，甚至有一家主权财富基金也这么说。

Similarly, when foreign investment firms go to their Chinese institutional investors, notably the big insurers, for capital, they are increasingly told that they need time. This reflects uncertainty about the amount of their foreign exchange quota and whether they will actually be given permission to act on that quota. In addition, there is unhelpful inconsistency as other large investment funds, for example, say they have no difficulty at all moving funds in and out.

同样，当外国投资公司向中国机构投资者(尤其是大型保险公司）寻求资金的时候，他们越来越多地被告知，这需要时间。这反映这些机构的外汇投资额度以及是否能够确实获准执行这些额度存在不确定性。此外一些不一致的地方也不是好事，比如其他大型投资基金表示，他们在资金出入境方面没有任何困难。

Chinais still learning how to integrate its financial markets with those of the rest of the world. There is no consensus on what the appropriate speed is for emerging markets to lift capital controls; both controls and liberalisation involve risks and trade-offs.

中国仍在学习如何让本国金融市场融入全球金融市场。对于新兴市场多快放开资本控制才算合适，目前并无共识；控制和放开都有风险，都需要权衡取舍。

If the controls become too heavy handed, one immediate consequence is speculative bubbles that travel from one financial market to another domestically. In the past year alone,Chinahas seen bubbles (and their inevitable, sometimes sharp correction) move from shares to real estate to the corporate bond market and then on to the commodities futures market.

如果控制过于严厉，一个直接后果就是国内金融市场此起彼伏的投机泡沫。仅在过去一年里，中国股市、房地产、企业债券市场，以及大宗商品期货市场都出现了泡沫（以及不可避免的、有时过于剧烈的修正）。

At the same time,China’s influence over the fate of other markets grows ever larger, fromAustraliatoBrazil, andChiletoKorea. This means that an unstable, weak renminbi can destabilise the entire globe. Getting the balance right is in everyone’s interest.

与此同时，中国对其他市场的影响——从澳大利亚到巴西，从智利到韩国——越来越大。这意味着，不稳定且疲弱的人民币可能破坏全球的稳定。找到一个合理的平衡符合所有人的利益。

广州金融翻译公司