Emerging market catch-up set back ‘decades’
新兴市场的追赶脚步被拖慢“数十年”
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Emerging nations’ drive to catch up with the incomes of the developed world has been set back decades by the slowdown in their economies and the impact of the commodities slump, according to World Bank research.
世界银行(World Bank)研究显示，经济放缓和大宗商品价格暴跌带来的影响，将新兴国家追赶发达国家收入的脚步拖慢了数十年。
The bank on Tuesday downgraded its global growth forecast because of what it said was a much worse than expected performance by commodity-exporting countries. It expects the global economy to grow 2.4 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 2.9 per cent, with emerging commodity exporters as a group set to expand just 0.4 per cent — down from 3.2 per cent as recently as 2013.
周二，世行下调了全球增长预期，称下调的原因是大宗商品出口国的表现比预期的糟糕得多。世行预计，今年全球经济将增长2.4%，低于此前2.9%的预期。新兴大宗商品出口国作为一个整体将仅增长0.4%，而就在2013年时，增幅还曾达3.2%。
That downgrade came alongside a new analysis showing that for the first time since the turn of the century a majority of emerging and developing economies were no longer closing the income gap with the US and other rich countries.
与此同时，一份新的分析显示，自世纪之交以来，首次有逾一半的新兴和发展中经济体没有再缩小与美国等富国的收入差距。
Last year just 47 per cent of 114 developing economies tracked by the bank were catching up with US per capita gross domestic product, below 50 per cent for the first time since 2000 and down from 83 per cent of that same sample in 2007 as the global financial crisis took hold.
去年，世行跟踪调查的114个发展中经济体当中，只有47%的经济体在人均国内生产总值(GDP)方面与美国缩小了差距，这是这一比例自2000年以来首次低于50%。同一调查样本在2007年的比例为83%——当时全球金融危机已站稳脚跟。
That, the bank’s economists warned, would have a meaningful impact on the future people in those countries could expect.
世行经济学家警告称，这将对这些国家民众能够期待的未来产生重大影响。
“Whereas, pre-crisis, the average [emerging market] could expect to reach advanced country income levels within a generation, the low growth of recent years has extended this catch-up period by several decades,” they wrote.
他写道：“危机以前，（新兴市场）平均而言可指望在一代人之内达到发达国家的收入水平，近几年的低增长已将这一追赶期延长了数十年。”
In the five years before the 2008 financial crisis, emerging markets could expect to take an average of 42.3 years to catch up with US per capita GDP, according to the bank’s analysis.
世行的分析称，在2008年金融危机前的五年里，新兴市场平均而言可指望在42.3年后赶上美国的人均GDP。
But over the past three years, as major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa have slowed or fallen into recession, the slower average growth means the number of years it would take to catch up with the US has grown to 67.7 years.
但在过去三年里，随着巴西、俄罗斯和南非等主要新兴经济体增长放缓或陷入衰退，新兴市场平均增速放缓，如此一来就得花67.7年才能赶上美国。
Many commodity-importing developing economies such as China and India had benefited from the lower prices and were proving relatively resilient.
许多进口大宗商品的发展中经济体，比如中国和印度，则受益于价格下跌，并表现出较强的适应能力。
