No need to panic — China’s banks are in pretty good shape
中国会出现银行业危机吗？
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The extraordinarily rapid rise of debt in China, particularly in the corporate sector, has given rise to fears that the country may be unable to avoid a banking crisis that would slow its growth and have substantial negative spillovers on the global economy. This fear is based on recent estimates by the International Monetary Fund and some investment banks that a substantial portion of new lending in recent years has gone to state-owned companies producing oversupplied goods where profits have turned ­negative.
中国债务水平、尤其是公司部门债务非同寻常的上升速度，令人担心该国或许无法避免一场银行业危机，进而减缓本国经济增长，并对全球经济产生重大负面溢出效应。这种担忧是由国际货币基金组织(IMF)和一些投行近来的估算引发的。据它们估计，中国近年来新增贷款的很大一部分流向了生产过剩产品、利润已变为负值的国有企业。
In fact, while lending more to corporates unable to pay interest and principal on previous loans means financial risks are clearly rising, it is likely that China is years away from a potential banking crisis, providing it with a window to slow the growth of credit to a sustainable level. A key reason for this judgment is that while the ratio of debt to gross domestic product is quite elevated, China also enjoys a high rate of national savings. The level of debt a country can sustain depends significantly on the share of domestic savings in GDP.
事实上，尽管向无力偿还之前贷款本息的企业发放更多贷款意味着金融风险显然在上升，但中国距离一场潜在银行业危机很可能还有多年时间，这让中国获得了把信贷增速降低到可持续水平的一段窗口期。作出这一判断的一条关键理由是，尽管债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比相当高，但中国的国民储蓄率也非常高。一个国家可以支持的债务水平，在很大程度上取决于国内储蓄与GDP之比。
Second, China’s debt build-up is almost entirely in domestic currency. Local companies have been paying down their foreign currency debt since the third quarter of 2014 and it now accounts for only 5 per cent of domestic debt. In contrast, a recent study of other emerging markets found that the median foreign currency debt as a share of total debt is four times the Chinese share. Moreover, China remains a large net creditor to the rest of the world. Thus, the country is not vulnerable to a financial crisis such as the one in Asia in 1997, which was precipitated by a refusal of foreign lenders to roll over their credit to Asian corporates.
第二，中国积累起来的债务几乎全部是以本币计价的债务。自从2014年第三季度以来，国内企业一直在偿还外币债务，如今外币债务仅仅相当于国内债务的5%。相比之下，不久前一份对其他新兴市场的研究发现，其外币债务占总债务的中值份额达到中国水平的4倍。此外，中国对世界其他地区仍是一个大型净债权国。因此，中国不会轻易爆发1997年亚洲金融危机那样的危机，那场危机是由外国银行拒绝滚转亚洲企业所欠债务而引发的。
Third, banking crises almost always begin with problems on the liability side of bank balance sheets. But Chinese banks’ liabilities are overwhelmingly deposits, which are very sticky. Bank reliance on wholesale funding is minimal. Thus, loans plus off-balance sheet assets are roughly equal to deposits, far from the 120-150 per cent ratios frequently seen in countries before the onset of banking crises. In any case, the central bank has substantial tools to deal with potential bank runs. For example, the required reserve ratio imposed on banks is currently 17 per cent. This could be cut with hugely positive effects on bank liquidity.
第三，银行业危机几乎总是源于银行资产负债表的负债端问题。但在中国，银行负债几乎全部是粘性很大的存款。银行对于批发融资的依赖是最低限度的。因此，贷款加上表外资产之和大致与存款水平相当，两者之比远未达到银行业危机爆发前经常在一些国家见到的120%至150%的比例。无论如何，中国央行拥有大量工具去应对潜在的银行挤兑。例如，当前商业银行的存款准备金率为17%。存准率可以降低，对银行流动性产生巨大的正面影响。
Fears of an impending banking crisis are often based on the assertion that China’s banks are far weaker than advertised. Given the huge acceleration of credit growth beginning with the global financial crisis, non-performing loan ratios in the 1 to 2 per cent range are not credible on this view. But this argument does not recognise that some banks have been aggressively writing off NPLs, making low reported NPL ratios more plausible. For example, Citic Bank and Bank of Communications in the first half of 2015 disposed of 75 and 30 per cent, respectively, of their year-end 2014 non-performing loan balances. More generally, the average provision coverage ratio of Chinese banks is about 150 per cent of reported NPLs.
对于中国即将发生银行业危机的担忧基于如下断言：中国的银行远比对外宣传的更为虚弱。鉴于自全球金融危机以来信贷增长达到极高加速度，1%至2%的不良贷款率并不可信。但这一观点没有意识到，一些银行一直在积极注销不良贷款，使得报告的较低不良贷款率更为可信。例如，2015年上半年，中信银行(Citic Bank)和交通银行(Bank of Communications)处置的不良资产分别占到其2014年底不良贷款余额的75%和30%。总体而言，中国银行业的平均拨备覆盖率大约相当于报告的不良贷款的150%。
Is it likely that weakened banks will ultimately be forced dramatically to slow their extension of credit, leading to a lengthy period of slow growth? This was the pattern in Japan, which some argue China is doomed to follow. But in the 1990s, when excess lending to poorly performing state-owned enterprises led Chinese banks to the brink of insolvency, the government initiated a massive recapitalisation programme that allowed the institutions to continue to lend, supporting the strong growth achieved in the first decade of this century. This was very unlike the situation in Japan, where the authorities for a decade refused to recognise weak bank balance sheets.
实力变弱的银行最终将被迫大幅放缓信贷扩张速度，导致经济进入漫长的低增长时期，这种情况可能发生吗？那正是日本的轨迹，有些人辩称，中国注定会跟日本一样。但在1990年代，当对绩差国企放贷过度导致中国银行业濒临破产时，中国政府启动了一个大规模的资本重组项目，使银行得以继续放贷，支撑了中国在本世纪前十年的强劲增长。这种情况不太可能在日本发生，因为在长达十年期间，日本当局拒绝承认银行资产负债表疲弱。
In addition, Chinese banks have far less exposure to poorly performing state-owned corporates than in the 1990s. In the mid-1990s, before the recapitalisation of the banking system, loans to SOEs accounted for 62 per cent of all renminbi loans of banks and other financial institutions. Today, that share has fallen to 30 per cent, largely because banks have increasingly lent to private companies and to households. The former earn an average return on assets that is two to three times that of state companies and the latter have relatively strong balance sheets.
此外，中国银行业现在对绩差国企的敞口远低于1990年代。1990年代中期，在银行系统资本重组之前，对国企的贷款占到了银行及非银行金融机构人民币贷款总额的62%。如今，这个比例已降到了30%，主要是因为银行一直不断增加对民企和家庭的贷款。民企的平均资产回报率是国企的两至三倍，而中国家庭有着相对强劲的资产负债表。广州银行翻译公司、银行英语翻译
To reduce tshe risks that are accumulating in the financial sector, the authorities must move aggressively to curtail the flow of credit to chronically unprofitable, mostly state-owned corporates. The central government’s campaign to close down these so-called zombie companies is already under way, but not surprisingly it is meeting resistance at the local level.
为了降低金融业正在积累的风险，中国当局必须积极采取行动，遏止信贷流向长期不盈利的企业、主要是国企。中央政府发起的关停僵尸企业的行动正在进行中，但意料中的是，该行动在地方层面遭遇了阻力。
This resistance must be overcome and the central government must also deal with the existing stock of bad assets by some combination of accelerated write-offs and securitisation of under­performing bank assets and even partial recapitalisation of the weakest financial institutions.
中国必须克服这种阻力，中央政府也必须综合运用加快银行不良资产的注销与证券化、甚至对最弱金融机构实施局部资本重组等手段，处置好存量不良资产。
The writer is Anthony M Solomon senior fellow at the Peterson Institute
本文作者为彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute)高级研究员
广州银行翻译公司 银行英语翻译
